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Politics’ Biggest ‘Palturam’ Nitish Kumar Is Down but Not Out

Nitish Kumar could join Federal Front which would provide him with a new narrative to win Bihar in 2020 without BJP.

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Opinion
4 min read
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The formation of the Federal Front has put the regional satraps in the forefront again. A few setbacks suffered by the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in the bypolls, a decline in Modi’s popularity ratings and desertion of NDA by allies have given a boost to the sulking confidence of the Opposition. The man, who at once was at the forefront in the race to lead any such alliance, Nitish Kumar, must be ruing his decision to go back to the NDA last year.

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Constant Snubbing from PM and BJP President

Nitish has been snubbed on many occasions by the Modi-Shah duo and recent communal tension in Bihar has strained his relations with central BJP ministers. The Araria and Jehanabad bypoll results suggest Nitish has lost some of his loyal Muslim and Maha-dalit vote bank. The once perceived invincible alliance of BJP and Janata Dal (United) doesn’t look unbeatable anymore.

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JD(U) didn’t get a cabinet berth as anticipated in Modi’s reshuffling of the ministry last year. Nine new cabinet ministers were inducted, of which 2 were from Bihar, but there was no place for JD(U). On the occasion of the centenary celebrations of Patna University, Nitish requested the PM to declare it as a central varsity. Here again, Modi ignored his demand.

After Telugu Desam Party’s (TDP) exit from the NDA on the issue of ‘special category status’ to Andhra Pradesh, Nitish has once again demanded a ‘special category status’ for Bihar and special assistance to ensure the state’s rapid growth. He has received no assurance on this front yet.

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Focus on 'One Nation One Poll' and Seat-Sharing

JD(U)’s biggest worry is over seat-sharing talks for the 2019 Lok Sabha. With its induction, now NDA has four players in the state including BJP. Here is a break up of the number of MPs each party has from the state:

  • BJP - 22
  • Lok Janashakti Party (LJP) - 7
  • Rashtriya Lok Samta Party (RLSP) - 2
  • JD(U) - 2 MPs

The three parties, excluding JD(U), have 31 out of 40 MPs. While JD(U) is hoping for a respectable seat distribution formula, with at least 50 percent of the seats, this looks highly unlikely. How can BJP deny tickets to sitting MPs? BJP may ask Nitish to contest on less seats in the Lok Sabha and more in Vidhan Sabha, however, this may not go down well with JD(U) workers.

Nitish could demand for a 17 (BJP) - 17 [JD(U)] - 6 (LJP/RLSP) type seat allocation formula.

This could make other allies unhappy and may even force them to leave. Allies like Ram Vilas Paswan have already started making a noise in anticipation of this tussle to strengthen their bargaining power.

BJP has been advocating ‘one nation one poll’ to curb election expenditure and improve governance. With Lok Sabha elections in May 2019, it needs to first show the public that its state governments believe in this concept. The BJP may ask its governments to prepone their assembly elections. Bihar, which is scheduled to go to polls in October 2020, may be asked to advance elections too.

BJP may sell Nitish the invincibility story and try to convince him that he has nothing to lose as the alliance will anyway come back to power, riding on Modi and his combined popularity.

Why would Nitish cut short his tenure by 1.5 years and take such a huge risk? This would create tension in the alliance.

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Anti-Incumbency Creeps In

Nitish has been ruling Bihar since 2005, except for a brief period, when he made Manjhi the chief minister. This is long enough a period to develop natural anti-incumbency. He may lose support among Mahadalits due to Manjhi joining the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) alliance, and Muslims due to his BJP alliance. After the initial euphoria and good show on the economic front, Bihar is facing stagnation as Nitish has been busy in politics, first opposing Modi, then ganging up with Lalu to defeat Modi, and now making up with Modi to secure another term.

Bihar in the meantime, languishes at the bottom of the table in a CRISIL report, which ranked 16 big states of India on three parameters of growth, inflation and fiscal position.
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Good Work Being Hijacked by Communal Tension

Nitish’s order on prohibition has received good support from the womenfolk in the state. Since his decision, Bihar’s crime rate has sharply plummeted. However, there have been incidents of communal tension in the state recently after RJD’s Araria win and alleged inflammatory statements made by Giriraj Singh and the BJP State President. Nitish has strongly disapproved of Giriraj Singh’s comments without naming him. Minister Ashwani Chaubey’s son has been named in an FIR. These incidents are harming Nitish’s image. He needs a new narrative to win again in 2020.

Nitish is the ultimate ‘paltu’ of Indian politics. Lalu and Nitish, who were once friends, turned foes in the late 1990s, became friends again in 2014, and then reverted to rivalry in 2017 after the split from RJD. Nitish has burnt bridges with Lalu and the Congress and can’t go back to UPA.

He must be ruing his decision to join NDA, but the wily fox that he is, he will find an opportunity in the Federal Front, to shun NDA and look for greener pastures if push comes to the shove and if the Modi-Shah duo turn hostile. Nitish could join the Federal Front in the name of strengthening federalism. This also provides him with a new narrative to win Bihar in 2020 without BJP and Modi. Watch out, Nitish is down but not out!

(Amitabh Tiwari is a former corporate and investment banker who is now following his passion for politics and elections. He is the author of e-book ‘Battle of Karnataka’, co-founder of social media startup LoudST and tweets at @politicalbaaba. This is an opinion piece and the views expressed above are the author’s own. The Quint neither endorses nor is responsible for them.)

(At The Quint, we are answerable only to our audience. Play an active role in shaping our journalism by becoming a member. Because the truth is worth it.)

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