There have been two military strikes on Syrian territory by the United States and its allies within a month – one for their purported use of chemical weapons, and the other by Israel on Iranian military bases in Syria as a retaliation for Iranian rocket attacks. While these strikes are part of political posturing to nudge Syria and its supporters to fall in line, the withdrawal of the US from the Iran nuclear deal seems to be a diplomatic step to raise the punitive quotient so as to facilitate a political reconciliation among the Syrian society on US terms.
However, Iran seems to be in combat mode after the US decision.
Iran Needs to Toe the Line
It is quite clear that the western powers led by the US are targeting a regime change in Syria, with Russia and Iran being the two stumbling blocks. They know that Russia is here to stay and amenable to a negotiated settlement as long as its strategic interests are taken care of, irrespective of future political dispensations. Moreover, Russia has taken the lead in bringing about reconciliation between the government of Syria and the rebels.
It is, therefore, Iran which needs to be made to toe the line, to make way for a regime change with a chief executive other than President Bashar al-Assad. It is this sentiment which has probably made the US up the ante by invoking nuclear calculus to pressure Iran into political submission. US President Donald Trump seems to have fired the shot and now awaits the reactions of Iran and the rest of the world.
The first set of reactions point towards the betrayal of Iran by the US despite its adhering to all the terms laid down in the deal brokered by former US President Barack Obama.
The opinion of Russian, Chinese and European signatories has apparently been disregarded, leaving them in a dilemma. It may well have been orchestrated so as to keep the options open (for reverting the decision), if the situation demands.
The Russians seem to be in ‘wait and watch’ mode as of now, looking for their geopolitical interests of ensuring their military presence in the Mediterranean sea, as both Syria and Israel are important to them.
Why US Wants to Neutralise Iranian Influence in West Asia
Russia also aims to occupy the strategic space being vacated by the US once they move out of the region as per their declared drawdown plan. This probably is the reason behind Russia’s neutrality on Iran-Israel confrontation right now.
China always seems to be exploring economic-political opportunities, and therefore, has nothing substantial to say except appeal for a political solution, just like the majority of the international community, including India.
As far as Iran is concerned, it is all about religious sectarian opportunism for their economic interests, as they have plans to lay an Iranian gas pipe line via Syria to Europe as against US-sponsored Qatar gas pipe line. It is this conflicting strategic interest which has prompted the US and its allies to neutralise Iranian influence in West Asia by supporting the Sunni dispensation, which has seemed to be on the back foot, recently.
Realising the strategic consequences of a military defeat of the Syrian rebels, the US has shifted the goal post to the nuclear domain, wherein Iran would be on a weak wicket due to economic sanctions and loss of substantial international support .
North Korean ‘Trump’ Card
Iran, in its national interest, has resorted to military posturing against Israel, thereby conveying its ‘nuisance value’ to the western world, including Israel. The message is clear: Iran cannot be ignored when it comes to peace in West Asia and resolution of the Syrian crisis.
The missile attacks on Israeli positions on Golan Heights, on 10 May 2018, indicated Iranian defiance to US’s move on the nuclear deal, and their political will to face the consequences.
Interestingly, the timing of the US pull-out from the Iranian nuclear deal has an another important political implication. The US seems to have showcased its unambiguous intention of nixing the nuclear ambitions of Iran, just a month before Trump’s 12 June meeting with North Korean Supremo Kim Jong-un in Singapore.
President Trump seems to have a plan in place to ensure diplomatic ascendency by raising the bar for negotiations on denuclearisation of the Korean peninsula. The message is loud and clear – nothing less than rolling back North Korea’s nuclear plans will be acceptable.
It is obvious that Trump, with his ‘take it or leave it’ attitude, has given Kim Jong-un one month’s time to to take a call on the nuclear issue. The US is riding high with active support from its European allies to neutralise the political opposition to their pursuit of geopolitical dominance.
Shifting Political Paradigms
A political format is being laid out to roll back the nuclear ambitions of the states deemed rogue by the western world. Iran and North Korea are the immediate subjects for the reshaping and resetting of a new world order in US’ strategic matrix. Pakistan may well be the next destination of this denuclearisation scheme with its proven complicity in Afghanistan and support to terrorism.
There have been assessments indicating chances of nuclear devices falling in the hands of non-state actors. This, obviously, is a dangerous proposition and needs to be handled in the next tranche, depending on the outcome of Trump’s current initiatives in Iran and North Korea.
There is indeed a political flux, with a reasonably high uncertainty quotient, in the existing geopolitical arena. The US is trying to change the status quo in the hope of redrawing the political synergies, as an enabling mechanism to take care of emerging threats from its potential competitors, and energy security of its European allies. These are changing times, and they warrant keeping our contingencies ready to respond to the possible politico-economic fallout. India, be prepared.
(Lt Gen Rameshwar Yadav (Retd) is the former Director General of Infantry and has been the head of the largest combat component of Indian Army. He has served in all sectors of the country and has participated in insurgency operations in J&K, North East and Sri Lanka. He is a regular contributor towards national security and international strategic issues through print and visual media. The views expressed above are the author’s own. The Quint neither endorses nor is responsible for them.)
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