Prime Minister Modi has deliberately shifted focus from SAARC to BIMSTEC for the participation of foreign leaders in his oath-taking ceremony today, 30 May. As Nepal, Bhutan, Bangladesh and Sri Lanka are members of both organisations, their leaders will be present at the Rashtrapati Bhavan. However, there will be no representation of Pakistan, Afghanistan and the Maldives on this important occasion.
An invitation to Pakistan Prime Minister Imran Khan was out of the question. Reports indicate that Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s first foreign visit will be to Male. That will profile the importance that India accords to the Maldives. But what of Afghanistan? Has it just fallen through the cracks? Has it become a casualty in not wanting to openly snub Pakistan?
Modi’s Swearing-In: Inviting Afghanistan Would Have Added Salt To Pakistan’s Wounds
India has spelt out specific and justifiable criterion as the basis for the invitations. Hence, in terms of diplomatic protocol, none of the three countries—Afghanistan, Pakistan and the Maldives—can take offence to not being invited to Modi’s swearing-in. However, countries can take steps that break protocol: special gestures can be made going beyond protocol to emphasise a significant bilateral relationship; equally, a deliberate snub can be given to show displeasure.
Thus, it was open to Modi to invite both Afghanistan and the Maldives and omit Pakistan. That would have meant that Pakistan would be conspicuously left out.
And that would have been a big insult especially after the Imran Khan telephone call. Clearly, Modi has not wanted to go that far. This can only mean that he hopes that at some stage Pakistan will take steps on the terrorism front that will enable the relationship to be put on a positive track. This thinking and hope has, though, inevitably led to the adoption of the BIMSTEC route for foreign participation, leading to the omission of Afghanistan and the Maldives.
Turmoil In Afghanistan
The question is, should Modi have dismissed protocol and signaled Afghanistan’s strategic importance by inviting President Ashraf Ghani to the oath-taking ceremony? Are the Afghan political class and the people disappointed that Modi hasn’t made that special gesture? Ashraf Ghani would have certainly been happy to visit Delhi and be seen among important regional leaders and have discussions with Modi. The same cannot be said for the Afghan political actors and the people at large.
Why? It is necessary to turn to the Afghan situation for an answer.
President Ghani and Chief Executive Abdullah lead a National Unity Government (NUG) which was formed in September 2014. The NUG was created through a US worked-out compromise after deeply-flawed elections. Abdullah correctly harboured the feeling that he was cheated. Consequently, all through its term the NUG has been a disunited house and has not been able to inspire all the Afghan people to look exclusively to Kabul. Only then would the Afghan class have succeeded in eroding and eliminating the position of the Taliban.
As this did not happen, the Taliban, with Pakistan behind it, gained strength. It did not give in to the threats of President Trump. On his part, Trump was unwilling to take the only step that would have been effective in curbing it—to go into Pakistani territory to knock-out its safe havens. Now the US is in strategic retreat and the Taliban have gained international legitimacy. Since October 2018 the US is negotiating with the Taliban, virtually on this group’s terms. It is unrelenting on beginning negotiations with the NUG to usher in peace, nor has it agreed to a ceasefire as yet.
Invitation To President Ghani Wouldn’t Have Been Viewed Kindly By Kabul
Amidst all this, the Afghan political class has completely split. This fragmentation has also been caused by the upcoming Presidential elections which are now slated for 28 September. Originally scheduled for April, they were earlier postponed to July. This delay has led to many Afghan politicians questioning the legitimacy of the NUG, particularly the continuance of Ghani as President. They have demanded the formation of an interim government till the election of a new President. The Afghan Supreme Court though has held that Ghani can continue till the slated election, a decision that has not been accepted by all, for it is not backed by any specific constitutional provision.
Ghani is using this extended period to act unilaterally in appointing ministers, ambassadors and other officials. Abdullah who is also a Presidential candidate, has complained that he is not being consulted by Ghani. The Council of Presidential Candidates has accused Ghani of “bullying and violating the laws of the country”. The US has cautioned Ghani and his colleagues to act with self-restraint during this extended period.
Thus, under the circumstances prevailing in Afghanistan, a special gesture by way of specifically inviting Ghani would have been regarded in Kabul not as a gesture to the country, but as one personally to Ghani.
He would have used it to project himself politically and that was completely avoidable. It would have been an entirely different proposition to have invited Afghanistan as part of all the SAARC countries.
(The writer is a former Secretary [West], Ministry of External Affairs. He can be reached @VivekKatju. This is an opinion piece and the views expressed above are the author’s own. The Quint neither endorses nor is responsible for them.)
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