Video Editor: Mohd Ibrahim
“Whoever wins Karnataka loses India” is an electoral truism that got nixed on Tuesday, 15 May. It used to be almost as robust an indicator as “whoever wins Ohio wins America.” But nobody won Karnataka, thereby depriving us of the polls’ quick-fix predictive ability.
By this yardstick then, 2019 is an open game, in uncharted territory! But here are five key takeaways that have made the Karnataka elections a microcosm of what to expect in the general elections of 2019.
One: Modi Will be India’s Strongest Political Leader, But His Wave Will Ebb.
Look at these data points:
- Despite such a hectic campaign, “Modi’s 104” fell far short of “BSY’s 110” in the wave-less Assembly election of 2008.
- The comparison with ‘Peak Modi’ – that is, data of 2014 Lok Sabha polls – is even more revealing: the BJP’s vote-share fell by seven percentage points, from 43 percent to 36 percent; also, while Modi had a clear lead in about 135 Assembly constituencies in 2014, he could pull in only 104 on Tuesday; and the BJP’s absolute votes, despite an increase in the number of first-time voters, fell from 13.3 million to 13.1 million (even as the Congress gained from 12.6 million to 13.8 million!) Would you still call it a wave?
- Compared to 2008, BJP’s wins in Bengaluru, thought to be Modi’s die-hard urban constituency, fell from 19 to 11. Wave?
Two: Congress Will Gain Vote-Share, But Fall Far Short of Majority
In terms of parliamentary seats, the best it can hope for is a three-digit number short of 150. In order to form a government, it will have to do a deal with the regional parties, exactly as it pitched to Kumaraswamy’s Janata Dal (Secular) in Karnataka. Now whether the Congress is in a position to lead this coalition, or become the junior partner in it, will depend on how close it manages to get to 150 seats.
Three: ‘Modi-Neutral’ Regional Parties Could Play it Both Ways
A few regional parties in India are “Modi-neutral,” – that is, they can do a deal with either BJP or Congress, as is evident from the option Kumaraswamy had in Karnataka. Other such “equi-distant” regional operators are Telangana Rashtra Samithi (TRS), YSR Congress, Telugu Desam Party (TDP), Shiv Sena, AIADMK, DMK, Janata Dal (United), and Indian National Lok Dal, among a clutch of tiny outfits.
These shall have the best shot at being in the Union government, irrespective of whether it is a UPA or NDA or Third Front-led government that gets formed after 2019. To use a Hindi saying, “Paanchon ungliyan ghee main (all five fingers in the fat; certain gains).”
Four: Anti-Modi Regional Parties May Get to Play King or King-Maker
A few regional parties will find it politically impossible to align behind Modi. These include the Samajwadi Party (SP), Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP), Biju Janata Dal (BJD), the Communists, Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD), Trinamool Congress (TMC), Nationalist Congress Party (NCP), and All India United Democratic Front (AIUDF).
Their best bet would be a United Front-like outcome in 1996, where a weak Congress is forced to prop up a regional chieftain. However, if the Congress was to come close to 150, then this gaggle will have to support a Rahul Gandhi-led government.
Five: President Ram Nath Kovind Will be in Governor Vajubhai Vala’s Shoes
And the last point: President Ram Nath Kovind will be in Governor Vajubhai Vala’s shoes, having to decide whom to call to form the government.
We shall have to wait until May 2019 to see what he does.
Clearly, what happened in Karnataka on Tuesday is a trailer of the movie that will play out after the general elections next year.
Enjoy the show!
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