The ruling AIADMK is perceived as the remote-controlled puppet of the BJP. Dhinakaran is moving his pieces (18 MLAs) toward a floor test and failing that, a by-election. MK Stalin is DMK’s face, around which the rest of the Opposition seems to want to rally.
Simply put, anything can happen in the 2019 elections.
Before TN can exclaim ‘Kuch bhi!’, Kamal works his PR cell raw and meets one Rahul Gandhi, president of the Indian National Congress. Here’s why this is different from his meeting with Pinarayi Vijayan (Kerala CM) or HD Kumaraswamy (Karnataka CM).
Pre-Poll Alliance?
If Kamal Haasan were to align his Makkal Neethi Maiam with the Congress, it would be seen as a natural fit to his liberal, metropolitan, secular image. More importantly, it would lend serious heft to his infant party.
In the 2019 elections, this would mean a great deal, since the Tamil Manila Congress would back him. For those who came in late, the TMC was formed by G Moopanar in 1996, who was once the shining star of the Congress with a meteoric rise in the party, not unlike that of Kamarajar.
After Moopanar's death, the TMC merged with the INC, under Moopanar's son, GK Vaasan, but is still seen as a separate entity.
Tamil Nadu has a well-oiled anti-BJP machinery. Its cogs and gears were put in place by Periyar’s anti-Hindi ideologies way back in the fifties.
In effect, TN’s ‘Dravidian’ politics is naturally unaligned with all that the BJP stands for; a unified Hindi-speaking India ruled by the Centre.
This rings truer in current times than in the past, when the BJP had allied both with the DMK (1999, victory) and the AIADMK (2004, defeat).
Today, the Congress is seen as less divisive and communal in TN, and is therefore an ideal ally for a party like Makkal Neethi Maiam that’s barely a few months old. Despite the fact that the Congress has never come to power after its loss to the DMK (1968), which was then a fledgling party, it has been a useful ally for many of TN's politicians.
Congress, the Recurring Ally?
Congress allied with the DMK in 1971, 1980, 2011 and most recently, in the 2016 elections. While it has been a 50-50 victory/defeat alliance, it has always resulted in a larger vote share and a few more seats.
But it's not just the DMK that the Congress has sympathised with.
Interestingly, in its historic rise to power in 1977 under MGR, the ADMK's foremost ally was the Congress. MGR had been a vocal supporter of the Congress party's National Emergency (1975-77), and had grown into the second largest party in TN meanwhile.
Like with the fight for the Centre, in which a combined Opposition seems to be the way to go, an alliance with the Congress could be the only way for the DMK to win an absolute majority in the coming elections.
And Kamal Haasan will not be denied his tiny piece of the proverbial pie, in such a scenario.
Rajinikanth for Congress?
This is a long shot, but a possibility. Here's why.
While TN's politics wears Kaala's colours, the majority of the people are less prone to sympathise with Dravidian ideologues, especially when it comes to casting their vote. It is for this reason that the AIADMK, which has never had a specific ideology to begin with, has ruled for as many times as the DMK.
Despite Rajinikanth’s foot-in-the-mouth on the Sterlite protests, he continues to draw large crowds wherever he goes, whether as a politician or as an actor.
His reach is closer to that of MGR's (though nowhere near) than Kamal Haasan's popularity can ever be. It will not come as a surprise if the Congress chooses to back Rajinikanth, if he decides to contest.
This is a possibility, despite the fact that Rajinikanth's image and ideas align better with the BJP. The BJP's presence is still negligible in TN (simply because the party has not given any attention to this state), and the superstar will not be seen supporting the party openly, if he wishes to win.
While Kamal Haasan may not necessarily play a substantial role in the coming elections, he might definitely turn out to be an important catalyst for edging the plot (DMK-INC alliance) forward. Worst case scenario, the Congress will at least have gained a larger footprint, enough to be taken seriously.
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