When the fourth delimitation was carried out in 2008, there were few states which were left out. The delimitation was deferred in the North East states due to a pending case in Guwahati High court challenging the legality of the 2001 census which was the basis of carrying out the 2008 Delimitation process. A separate appeal pertaining to Manipur was also pending.
In the state of Jharkhand, the delimitation exercise was carried out, but the Ranchi High court styed the implementation as the number of assembly seats reserved for the Scheduled Tribes was declining compared to the past.
The delimitation in the state of Jammu and Kashmir was not carried and the argument put forward in this regard was that since the had a separate constitution, the state was empowered to set up its own delimitation commission. The national delimitation commission was not to look into it.
Central Government Justified in Initiating Delimitation in J&K
Technically, now when Article 370 has been de-operationalised, the Central Government is justified in initiating the process of a fresh delimitation in Jammu and Kashmir. But the urgency in which the process has been initiated—while hardly any effort has been made to conduct delimitation in other states which were left out during 2008 delimitation—raises some questions. The big question is what may be the likely impact if the new delimitation is carried out in Jammu and Kashmir?
To honour the principle of value of vote of each person being equal, it is important that all parliamentary constituencies across the country and all assembly constituencies within the state should be of equal size with already laid down exceptions.
At present, the average size of the electorate in the assembly constituencies in the Kashmir region is 81,778 voters while the same in the Jammu region is 91,593.
The process of delimitation is required to be carried out to weed out the uneven size of the constituency in terms of the size of electorate, which creeps in due to the uneven growth of population in different locations due to various reasons. The population of the urban localities—more so of the big metropolitan cites—grow at a much faster pace as people move from village to the towns and cities in search of livelihood. Similarly, the pattern of migration indicates movement of the people from the hills in many states.
The job of the delimitation commission is to re-draw the boundaries of the constituencies in such a way that at the time of delimitation all assembly constituencies are of more or less equal size.
Present Size of J&K Constituencies
Going by the general pattern of migration, it is reasonable to assume that population in Jammu region would have grown at much faster pace compared to the population of Kashmir. A fresh delimitation is expected to change the number of assembly seats which at present fall in the two regions.
Of the total 87 Assembly constituencies of Jammu and Kashmir, 46 were in the Kashmir region while 37 were in the Jammu region. There are only four assembly constituencies within the Ladakh region.
At present, the average size of the electorate in the assembly constituencies in the Kashmir region is 81,778 voters while the same in the Jammu region is 91,593. Almost 10,000 more compared to Kashmir.
A likely increase in the share of seats in Jammu region would mean natural advantage for the BJP.
The assembly constituencies in Ladakh region is much smaller with average electorate being 41,546. Of the ten biggest assembly constituency in Jammu and Kashmir in terms of number of electorate, nine are in Jammu region while only Batamaloo assembly constituency—which is third largest with regard to size of voters—is in Kashmir region.
How Delimitation Will Impact J&K Seat Division
When boundaries of assembly constituencies would be demarcated afresh with the principle of equal size of voters across all assembly constituencies, the Jammu region is likely to gain seats while the share of seats in the Kashmir region will decrease.
Since the support base of the main political parties namely BJP, PDP, and National Conference are very different in these two regions, it would have some impact on the political clout of these parties in the politics of the state. A likely increase in the share of seats in Jammu region would mean natural advantage for the BJP as it has performed very well in this region and has been able to expand its support base enormously during last few years.
During the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, BJP won three Lok Sabha seats (led in 27 Assembly segments) and polled 46.4% votes highest ever in the electoral history. Even without being able to expand it support in the Kashmir region, BJP may be able to emerge as a dominant player in the politics of the state.
Since PDP and National Conference are largely present in the Kashmir region, the decline in the number of seats in the Kashmir region would adversely affect their electoral prospects. The National conference swept the 2019 Lok Sabha election in Kashmir, won three Lok Sabha seats, but just polled 7.9% votes in Jammu region.
The PDP lost all the three seats which it had won in 2014, performed badly and polled only 2.4% votes. Though the support base of Congress may be low (28.5% in 2019) but is more or less evenly spread in both the regions. This change in the proportionate share in the number of seats for two regions might not have any impact on the electoral prospects of the Congress.
(Sanjay Kumar is a Professor and currently the Director of Centre for the Study of Developing Societies (CSDS). This is an opinion piece and the views expressed are the author's own. The Quint neither endorses nor is responsible for them.)
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