An assortment of exit poll data, including grossly unscientific ‘mean’ figures in the so-called ‘poll of polls’, has been put on the table. Till actual counting on 23 May – people will, depending on their political orientation and which pollster they decide to go with – rejoice or grieve.
As per CVoter, the Congress-led UPA is projected to get 128 seats, while the BJP-led NDA could bring in a total of 287. The Congress by itself is projected to get 80 seats, while BJP alone is projected to win 236 seats.
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The Mahagathbandhan looks set to grab 40 seats, while the TMC in Bengal is set to get 29 seats.
However, given the inconsistent track record of pollsters over several elections, exit polls at best, give only a general sense of the direction India is heading in. At worst, they could have got everything wrong.
It is obvious that much depends on the final tally. It would determine equations among parties, and decide who gets to sit with who in the Treasury Benches in Parliament, or are relegated to the Opposition rows. At this stage thereby, several scenarios are in store, and it is worth examining these, as India's social, economic and political future will vary, based on which of these possibilities become reality.
In random order, let us take the most talked-about post-poll scenario in the run-up to the long, cacophonous, bordering on loutish, electoral campaign.
Is There Anything Called A ‘Weak Modi’?
For many, a ‘trimmed’ Modi is the best option for India's future. Groups praying for this scenario have faith in the administrative capacities and the drive of Modi, but balk at his methods to pursue them, if he cannot be tempered by strong internal groups.
For this, the Bharatiya Janata Party would have to emerge as the single-largest party, but end with a reduced tally compared to 2014.
In such a coalition (that Prime Minister Narendra Modi could possibly head), his power and extent of centralism in government would be directly proportional to the number of seats from different allies required to reach the magic mark of 272.
Modi's push towards authoritarian majoritarianism, a principal characteristic of his regime since 2014, would weaken with every number that the BJP falls short of a majority of its own. Being dependent on allies for a majority, would force the government to pursue more inclusive policies.
An NDA Without Modi
During campaigning too, divergences on major national issues – at policy level to specific matters like the response to Pragya Thakur's offensive comments – were evident between the BJP and its existing allies. The JD(U) for instance, has a different way of approaching issues related to minorities. These will cast a shadow on government policy, and Modi will not be as unencumbered as he was since 2014.
Modi will need to be further flexible, if he requires additional allies from outside the present NDA.
In any case, possible new partners, from within or outside, like Jaganmohan Reddy, K Chandrashekar Rao and Naveen Patnaik, have significant differences with the BJP on several crucial matters, including Centre-State relations.
This raises the spectre of another probability, however slim many may consider, of the BJP tally being reduced to the 'Vajpayee tally' – in the range of 180 – which still allows the party to head the next government, but with an alternative leader. It is tough to deliberate on this possibility, and also that of who could replace Modi, because of multiple factors coming into play.
A Coalition Govt May Sound Unstable, But India’s Experiments With Majority Govts Tell A Different Story
But the inverse is also possible – that Modi heads the BJP into a repeat show, either matching the 2014 tally, or even surpassing it. In such a situation, expect greater ideological fervour from the government, BJP and the entire Sangh Parivar, in the pursuit of every contentious initiative or programme – be it reorienting educational institutions or curriculum, renaming of cities, chipping away at the integrity of institutions, or turning a blind eye to vigilantism.
One can expect the constant reiteration of ‘Sabka Saath, Sabka Vikas’ being Modi's motto – because this would be required for international legitimacy; but he will make little effort to position himself as ‘Sabka Neta’. Modi would want to be accepted for what he is, with his drive towards reorienting India as an ethnic democracy.
Leaving exit poll figures aside for a moment, the possibility of 2004 repeating itself cannot be ruled out.
With alarms being raised about the dangers of a coalition government, it is worth noting that India's experiment with three single-party majority governments, after politics became more competitive, have not been good.
A ‘Khichdi Sarkar’ May Not Be That Bad
In 1971, Indira Gandhi imposed Emergency due to a combination of agitations in the wake of her failure to deliver on promises, and the Supreme Court verdict going against her. Thereafter, within three years of Rajiv Gandhi securing the biggest-ever mandate in 1984, his government lost its course, began acting like deer caught in headlights, and tried to muzzle the press through the Defamation Bill. The economic crisis set in at that time.
And, whatever may be the achievements or failures of the Modi government, there is little denying that this regime has sought to police us and our thoughts.
With the election process complete and only counting remaining, it is worth recalling that the BJP's critics have raked issues of the erosion of civil liberties, the targeting of minorities, push towards a ‘Hindu Rashtra’, squeeze on independent media, the and rise of crony capitalism. None of these can be denied by even the faithful.
A single-majority government therefore carries the inherent risk of being anti-democratic.
But unlike previous such regimes, Modi is ideologically-driven, and therefore, allows for a greater push to redefine India and Indian nationhood. Contrary to what most believe, a so-called ‘khichdi sarkar’ may not be bad. After all, don’t doctors prescribe khichdi when a person is ill?
India Is Nothing But A Social Coalition – So Why Should A Multi-Party Govt Be Bad?
Multi-party governments are more representative and reflect the true character of India, which itself is nothing but a social coalition. Modi has tried to convert India into a unitary nation, but this is against national characteristics.
Since 1996, the BJP and Congress have split up an average of 300 Lok Sabha seats – the highest being in 2014 (326) and lowest in 2004 (283). Only an astounding formation can provide the Congress with a shot at governance, although a reasonable tally will alter post-poll equations.
Without doubt, it’ll be another few days before we can stop grappling with various possibilities, and have a clearer idea of the India that will be.
(The writer is an author and journalist based in Delhi. His most recent books are ‘Sikhs: The Untold Agony of 1984’ and ‘Narendra Modi: The Man, The Times’. He can be reached at @NilanjanUdwin. This is an opinion piece and the views expressed above are the author’s own. The Quint neither endorses nor is responsible for the same.)
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