It is best not to believe an exit poll, or even a range of exit polls, entirely. The results in the last three parliamentary elections have shown that exit pollsters, predominantly, have got the numbers wrong. In 2009 and 2014, they managed to get the direction right, but were largely far from the numbers and did not predict a simple majority for the BJP in 2014 (except Chankya in 2014).
Having declared that red herring, IF the 2019 exit poll results were to hold on 23 May, then, at a national level, it will be a body blow to regional parties and the Congress.
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The numbers come as a shocker, not because they predict a return of the BJP and Narendra Modi, but because they predict that the existing NDA, by itself, may cross the 300 seat mark, and have a clear majority.
This would mean not just a return of Narendra Modi to power, but a strong Modi to power.
End of JDS-Congress Coalition in Karnataka?
While the BJP, polls predict, may be short of a majority by itself, the larger symbolic assertion is that the Modi government has had the endorsement of the electorate. Regional parties will have to learn to make bridges with Modi and those that have opposed him strongly will certainly have to reassess their strategy. In effect, Modi is there to stay, and regional forces have to find ways to deal with it.
This is particularly true for the five southern states that are dominated by regional players. In the event that the exit polls turn into a reality, the first major blow would be in Karnataka.
Polls have predicted a minimum of 18 seats for the BJP in the state, and the India Today-Axis My India poll has even predicted the possibility of 25 of 28 seats.
This will certainly mean an end of the JD(S)-Congress coalition government in the state. Expect HD Kumaraswamy’s downturn and possibly a fresh election, if not a BJP effort to get the numbers, by poaching MLAs in the state. The alliance hasn’t worked at all as per the least predicted result, and as per the highest predicted result, has had a major backlash against it.
So, the first major take away for southern India, from the exit polls, is a rout in Karnataka for the Congress, and this would be a blow to the Congress. This was a state where the party was expecting to contain the BJP and hold it at around 12 seats, but the polls suggest that hasn’t happened.
In Tamil Nadu, Scale Of Victory Is What’s Important For DMK
In Tamil Nadu, most polls predict and confirm the ground sentiment, that the Congress-DMK alliance, including other smaller parties, will win the majority of the 39 seats. However, exit polls have differed on the numbers, as some have predicted upto 37 of the 39 seats, and others suggest that the AIADMK-BJP alliance may wrest a few seats, up to 11.
It’s important to remember that in Tamil Nadu it was a not just a victory, but the scale of the victory that was important for the DMK.
They have to wrest more than 30 seats in a clean sweep, as the AIADMK is at its weakest, and this is a state which has given clean sweep verdicts in the past. In the absence of a clean sweep, the DMK will find the going tough, and MK Stalin’s leadership will be questioned.
If it is a clean sweep of around 35 of the 39 seats, like the India Today-Axis My India poll has predicted, then the DMK would almost certainly attempt to form a government in the state.
This is because, 22 assembly polls have also gone to the polls, and a clean sweep in those seats will give the DMK-Congress numbers in the state assembly to form a government.
So, it’s the range of the DMK-Congress victory that would matter, and the exit polls differ on that count, making it difficult to assess the fallout. Either way, the DMK will remain with the Congress, as it needs the national party at the state level.
In Andhra, If Jagan Reddy Comes to Power, He’s Likely to Back BJP At Centre
In Andhra Pradesh, polls suggest a neck and neck fight. A poll of polls by NDTV suggests 12 seats in each of the 25 Lok Sabha seats. But the prediction seems to be on the side of a slender win for Jaganmohan Reddy’s YSR Congress.
The ground perception in the state has been that, Jagan may have had the edge, and set to be the chief minster of the state, but this is a state that will go down the wire.
Even in 2014, the vote share difference between the TDP and YSR Congress was only around 2 percent, and it looks like a close fight in 2019 as well.
However, if Jagan comes to power, he is likely to back the BJP at the Centre. He may not necessarily be part of a coalition, but will have to work on getting special status for the state, and hence has to keep good equations with the Centre. Further, he is opposed to the Congress and is seen as being on the BJP’s side.
In Telangana, TRS May Win; In Kerala, Left May Become A Shadow Of Its Former Self
In Telangana, as expected, the TRS is tipped to win most of the seats, and the TRS is certain to back the BJP, as its main rival in the state is the Congress.
Finally, polls have predicted a clean win of around 15 of the 20 seats for the Congress in Kerala. This would leave the Left parties in the sidelines of national politics, and their position as a national electoral force is becoming increasingly irrelevant.
In many ways, all regional parties are likely to be disappointed with the exit polls as, even those with the NDA, hoped that the BJP would be well short of a majority on its own.
That is the only way they would have a stake in New Delhi. However, if the exit poll numbers hold and the BJP comes within single digits of 272 seats, it would be a blow to their dreams.
They may just be hoping, like the Congress, that the exit polls have overestimated Narendra Modi and the BJP. This includes regional parties in the North, South, West or East, and even those that are firmly with the NDA.
(The writer is an independent journalist. He can be reached @TMVRaghav . This is an opinion piece and the views expressed above are the author’s own. The Quint neither endorses nor is responsible for the same)
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