There are difficult marriages, and then there are marriages that are only empty shells. When the Shiv Sena agreed to partner a buoyant and aggressive Bharatiya Janata Party in Maharashtra government in October 2014, barely a month after the latter had cut off their 25-year-old alliance, it was evident that this would be a difficult marriage, if that.
In the last three years and more, the Shiv Sena doggedly and gleefully sniped at its partner in public, called out its partner’s ill-treatment in private, behaved as if it were the Opposition than an ally in government, and let it be known that it is most unhappy with the state of the alliance.
That estrangement was given the final shape on 23 January when the Shiv Sena national executive declared that the party would sever ties with its partner and contest the 2019 Lok Sabha and Maharashtra Assembly elections on its own strength.
A resolution to this effect was moved by Sena’s Rajya Sabha MP Sanjay Raut and unanimously approved by the party’s executive, its highest decision-making body besides its working president Uddhav Thackeray.
Separated but Still Together?
In October 2017, Sanjay Raut had termed the BJP “Shiv Sena’s principal enemy”. The youngest politically-inclined Thackeray, Aaditya, had hinted at the divorce last month.
The national executive’s decision and Uddhav Thackeray’s tough talk means that the notice of divorce has been well and truly served. But they are not ready to go their separate ways yet; the two partners continue to share power both in Delhi and Mumbai.
And herein lies the crux of this political realignment – it is a break for all practical purposes but it isn’t official, which throws open the political field not only for the Shiv Sena and the BJP but also for the Congress and the Nationalist Congress Party.
Thackeray thundered against the BJP and Prime Minister Narendra Modi. “Arrogance has crept into the BJP’s top leadership,” he bellowed. He termed Modi’s government “a government of advertisements” and mocked the PM for “being more interested in flying kites in Ahmedabad with international leaders”.
Despite the harsh words, he did not ask his ministers to resign from either the Union or state Cabinet. This is a contradiction but one that Thackeray is happy with.
But the BJP & the Shiv Sena Won’t Truly Let Go
Why? For one, this one-foot-in-the-door-and-another-foot-outside helps the party reap the benefits of being in power while pandering to its increasingly vocal anti-BJP section till the 2019 elections.
Shiv Sena’s presence in Modi’s and Chief minister Devendra Fadnavis’ Cabinets gives it access to decisions and information, allows it to claim credit for pro-people policies while shrugging off criticism for the not-so-positive ones, and it can leverage this during the elections.
Secondly, Thackeray has thrown the BJP and Sharad Pawar into a quandary. The BJP has 122 seats in the state Assembly, the Sena has 63.
By not withdrawing from the governments, Thackeray has dared the BJP to throw his party out. Should it do so, the Sena gets the sympathy and the BJP will have to unwillingly accept the NCP’s offer of unconditional support made in October 2014.
This forces Pawar to give up his claim as the BJP’s Opposition. Pawar is leading a “Save the Constitution” morcha on 26 January and wants to mastermind anti-BJP alliances in 2019.
Fadnavis’ cautious response – “Let’s wait…as of now we are in alliance and this government will complete its term” – from Davos should be read in this context.
Thirdly, Thackeray’s position keeps the political pot boiling with speculation about alignments. Will he eventually reach a pre-poll understanding with the NCP or even the Congress?
If he goes it solo and reaches a respectable figure in the 48 Lok Sabha seats and the 288-member Assembly, he could ink post-poll pacts with the BJP from a position of greater strength.
It contested local elections including in Mumbai’s municipal corporation in 2017 on its own and retained power.
Fourthly, the BJP in 2019 may not be the invincible juggernaut that it was in 2014 when the “Modi factor” overwhelmed all else.
That euphoria is fast evaporating, there are problem areas for both Modi and Fadnavis governments, Thackeray reckons. The resurfacing of agrarian crisis as a poll issue, after Gujarat state election, resonates in Maharashtra too, Thackeray believes. The Shiv Sena has made an issue of farm loan waivers.
As Suhas Palshikar, a Pune-based political analyst, remarked:
The Shiv Sena’s declaration to go it alone in 2019 is indicative of its willingness to bargain tough with the BJP, rewrite the big-brother-little-brother equation which the BJP changed in 2014, and neutralise Sharad Pawar’s game-plans.
In this, the BJP has much to worry.
Maharashtra Demands Answers From BJP Government
Maharashtra has thrown many a challenge in the last three years to Modi, party president Amit Shah and Fadnavis. The agrarian crisis shows no signs of abating, the announcement of farm loan waiver made a bigger splash than the waiver itself.
The restive and politically impatient Maratha community has been knocking at Fadnavis’ door for more than 18 months with its lakh-strong morchas across the state. Dalits are enraged and polarised after the Bhima-Koregaon violence and the action taken against community members after they enforced a violent bandh across Maharashtra this month.
Land acquisition for Fadnavis’ flagship projects such as the Mumbai-Nagpur Samruddhi Expressway and mega refineries in Konkan has led to trouble. The Smart Cities Mission does not seem all that enticing any more, Fadnavis himself hardly talks about it. And social polarisation does not help.
Much before gau rakshaks unleashed terror over the beef ban and lynched Mohammed Akhlaq in Dadri, Pune’s Mohsin Sheikh was hammered to death one night in June 2014 by members of a Hindutva group.
The All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul chief Asaduddin Owaisi has been assiduously wooing Muslim youth across the state. His “Save Shariat” meeting in Mumbai, and tour to Aurangabad and Nanded, poses a further challenge to the BJP.
Congress Upping the Ante
The Congress is upping the ante too. It is nowhere as aggressive as it could be but the party is regaining its voice. Its latest salvo against the BJP came from state president Ashok Chavan.
After the Fadnavis government give away land cheaply to Baba Ramdev, it has now become Patanjali’s dalal (dealer) too. This is the government of Ambani, Adani, and Baba Ramdev. It has no space for the poor, Dalits, minorities, farmers, and traders.Former CM Prithviraj Chavan, referring to the Fadnavis government’s decision to offer Patanjali products on its e-seva portal
The numbers are a different matter, the perception that Fadnavis is less his own man and more Modi-Shah’s point-person in Mumbai doing their bidding is gaining ground. And, of all parties, none will exploit this more than the Shiv Sena. Brace for 2019. Till then, the BJP and Shiv Sena will bide time in this empty shell of an alliance.
(Smruti Koppikar, Mumbai-based senior journalist and columnist, has written extensively on politics, cities and gender. The views expressed above are the author’s own. The Quint neither endorses nor is responsible for the same.)
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