Ahmed Patel’s victory may have come as a surprise for the BJP, offering some food for thought to the party at the same time.
Gujarat, with an assembly strength of 176, required 45 first preference votes to win the Rajya Sabha elections. BJP with 121 MLAs had 31 surplus votes for the third candidate, Balwant Singh Rajput.
Out of 51 Congress MLAs, seven were expected to side with BJP, as they didn’t go to the resort in Karnataka. Ahmed Patel had hence support of 44 Congress MLAs and was banking on others (NCP and JDU) to sail through. In the end, Amit Shah and Smriti Irani ended up with 46 votes each, Ahmed Patel with 44 and Balwant Rajput (third BJP candidate) with 38. The votes of two rebel Congress MLAs were declared invalid for violating the voting procedure.
This brought down the assembly strength to 174, lowering the threshold required to win from 45 to 44.
So where did BJP go wrong?
Also Read: Ahmed Patel Retains Guj Rajya Sabha Seat With Invalid Cong Votes
1. An Extra Vote for Shah and Smriti Irani
It was expected to be a nail-biting electoral fight from the word go. Every vote counted. When only 45 votes were required to win, Shah and Smriti both got one extra vote, bagging 46 votes each. This essentially means that two votes of BJP were wasted. Did this happen due to miscommunication or was it a deliberate move?
It could have been that the BJP tried playing it safe and ensured buffer votes for Shah and Smriti in case any vote was declared invalid. However, with votes being declared invalid, the threshold required to sail through was also reduced.
2. Rebel MLAs Needed More Training
As expected by BJP, two MLAs from the Patel camp also turned against Congress and voted for BJP. Without going into what sort of influence was used to lure these MLAs, this was indeed a major coup for Shah.
This would have ensured that Ahmed Patel got 44 and Balwant Rajput 40 votes respectively. Patel would have fallen short by one vote (45 required to win). Then the second-preference votes would have been taken into account where Patel would have lost because of BJP’s sheer numbers.
However, perhaps BJP didn’t train the rebel MLAs in the basics of voting in Rajya Sabha elections. Two MLAs showed their ballot papers to Amit Shah after voting (for confirmation, perhaps) rather than to their authorised polling agent. They forgot they were still in Congress. This unintentional mistake boosted Patel’s chances.
3. BJP Forgot to Look Into Its Own Backyard
I again repeat that these polls were always expected to be a photo finish. Each vote counted. One rebel BJP MLA, Nalin Kotadiya, who had voted against Ram Nath Kovind in Presidential elections, again cross-voted for Congress’ Ahmed Patel according to NDTV. He was unhappy with BJP’s handling of the Patidar agitation in which 14 youth had died. BJP should have made efforts to cajole him back into supporting its official candidate.
What Do RS Results Mean for Gujarat Polls?
This entire exercise has rejuvenated Congress and instilled a sense of unity among the party cadre. Around 7-8 of its MLAs will resign and move to BJP over the next few weeks or it may itself suspend these rebels in a stern action. While this will have limited impact on state poll results expected by year end, Congress has won a psychological battle for now.
Resort politics has made a comeback after a while.
The desire to gain power and ability to manage MLAs from the opposition camp has resulted in BJP forming governments in Arunachal, Manipur and Goa. This will put off a section of its young educated voters at the national level.
It’s not a party with a difference, in fact, in many ways it is the new Congress, for a section of its voters.
BJP will go to court, though a final decision could take some time. Hence, the last word on these polls is not out yet.
It is a personal setback for Amit Shah who couldn’t win the battle and lost by a whisker. In the end, he is human as well, and can err.
(Amitabh Tiwari is a corporate and investment banker turned political commentator, strategist and consultant. He can be reached @politicalbaaba. This is an opinion piece and the views expressed above are the author’s own. The Quint neither endorses nor is responsible for the same.)
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