Why This MP Election Will Be Shivraj Singh Chouhan’s Toughest Yet

Why This MP Election Will Be Shivraj Singh Chouhan’s Toughest Yet

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Video Editor: Abhishek Sharma

MP CM Shivraj Singh Chouhan has won the most number of Assembly Elections in the state. But facing his fourth election this year, Chouhan seems to be under pressure. Looks like what was his strength so far has now turned into his weakness. We are saying this because ever since the  new SC/ST Act there has been polarisation. Core BJP voters have formed a new party who claim to divide BJP's votes.

Anger of Swarns- 'SAPAKS' Formed

The Swarn community of MP are angry because of the new SC/ST Act and SC/ST reservation in promotion. In retaliation, they have formed SAPAKS – 'Samanya Pichra Aur Alpsankhyak Varg Karmchari Sanstha’. Many people are joining meetings of this party. They have announced to fight elections from 230 seats.

The nearly 15 percent of Swarn votes in the state have been BJP's core voters for 30 years. Apart from this, 37 percent voters belong to backward classes. So, SAPAKs can breach core BJP voters.

Dalits Unhappy With The BJP

From Rohit Vemula's disappearance to the Una incident that happened during four years of the Modi government. Dalits are unhappy with both the Centre and the state government. Nearly 16 per cent voters in MP belong to the SC Community. The nationwide Dalit strike on 2 April saw massive protests in Madhya Pradesh's Gwalior and other nearby areas. Dalit protests are a big concern for the BJP.

Tribal Outfit 'JAYS' Emerges

MP's youth organisation 'JAYS' has managed to hold grounds in MP's tribal areas. 23 per cent of voters in MP are adivasis. Talks over an alliance with the Congress is underway. However, JAYS has announced that if an alliance with the Congress is not formed, they would fight the election independently. Congress' alliance with the JAYS can pose as a threat to the BJP.

Along with this, there is also the issue of farmer’s woes. Shivraj Singh was considered very popular among farmers. But six farmers were killed during the farmers' protest in Mandsaur last year. Ever since then farmer's agitation against the government has become very evident. On the other hand, Congress has promised farm loan waivers to the MP farmers.

CM Shivraj Singh embarked on an 'Ashirwad Yatra' as a part of his election campaign. But during the majority of the tour, he was seen as the lone campaigner. Apart from some Union Ministers of the BJP, none from the central government registered their presence. There were also reports of lesser crowds and empty pandals during the 'Ashirwad Yatra'.

No Modi Wave Like 2013

In the 2013 assembly elections, one of the main reason for Shivraj's victory was the Modi wave and the anti-incumbency factor against the then Central government. This time, the Modi factor is not as strong and 4-year anti-incumbency of the Centre can work against Shivraj.

In short, it's a tough road for Shivraj this time.

Also Read : Tired of Cong & BJP, MP Adivasis Want to Fight Back on the Ballot

Also Read : MP Elections: Who’ll Be King and Who’ll Be King-Maker?

(Participate in the second edition of The Quint's My Report Debate and win Rs 10,000. Write an essay on how to fix India and Pakistan's relationship. Submit now)

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