The Quint Decodes the BJP’s Victory in Gujarat Assembly Elections

Despite public resentment, BJP has managed to maintain its vote share and Congress’ vote share has also increased. How does one best explain this scenario?

The Quint’s Editorial Director, Sanjay Pugalia, converses with CSDS Director Sanjay Kumar to discuss the Gujarat Assembly Polls 2017.

Kumar explains that when Congress was trying to align with Hardik Patel, Jignesh Mevani and Alpesh Thakor, there was counter-polarisation as well, due to which upper caste voters favoured the BJP.

The Congress was expecting Dalits, Patidars and Thakors to vote in its favour, but as per our study, not many votes were received by Congress. The votes were divided.

Sanjay Kumar, CSDS Director

On being questioned on whether the BJP was afraid that Gujarat's voters would make society and caste the determining factor while casting their votes, Kumar answered that as per their third survey, it was evident that the Congress was leading and giving a tough competition to the BJP.

After 30 November, PM Modi started his aggressive campaign. In the last seven days, the way campaigning was done has had a major impact on voters and changed their perspective towards BJP.

Sanjay Kumar, CSDS Director

Kumar stresses on the fact the remarks related to Mani Shankar Aiyar and Shehzaad Poonawalla had a clear impact on the elections as 35% of voters in Gujarat decided their vote in the last two days.

When asked what the big takeaways are for the BJP, PM Modi and Amit Shah, Kumar says BJP must find a way to address and communicate with disillusioned voters.

The numbers suggest that people are upset with GST and demonetisation. BJP needs to communicate with its people and not say they are doing the right thing as policymakers. If Congress works with utmost determination, it is not impossible to defeat the BJP.

Sanjay Kumar, CSDS Director

Also read: Gujarat Election Results: Congress’ OBC Face Alpesh Thakor Wins

Video Editor: Modh Ibrahim