Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s “interaction” with the media in Varanasi on Friday, 26 April, turned out to be little more than a short bite. But even in that short statement, he gave a politically significant hint.
He said, “Some people are creating the impression that Modi is winning so there’s no point of voting. Please don’t listen to such people. Come out and vote for a stronger India.”
This statement does indicate a certain anxiety on his part that the enthusiasm among BJP voters is falling which may cause many of them to stay away on voting day.
Analysis of the voting pattern from the first three phases of polling, indicates that these fears might be genuine at least in the politically crucial state of Uttar Pradesh.
Anthro.ai, which is analysing the voting trends in Uttar Pradesh using artificial intelligence, wrote after the second phase of polling, “There is a group of voters who voted for Modi in 2014 but are not voting for the BJP this time...it’s these voters who’re staying home and are tipping the scales”.
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26 seats in Uttar Pradesh – mostly in Western Uttar Pradesh and Rohilkhand – have voted so far. BJP had won 23 of these in the 2014 Lok Sabha elections, some of them with huge margins.
Most analysts admit that the BJP is likely to suffer losses in these seats and the Mahagathbandhan of the Samajwadi Party, Bahujan Samaj Party and Rashtriya Lok Dal is making significant gains. But there are two different takes on the extent of the losses, one conservative and the other radical.
In this map, we have divided the 26 seats that have voted into five categories:
- Seats where BJP is ahead
- Seats where BJP has a slight edge
- Seats where Mahagathbandhan is ahead
- Seats where Mahagathbandhan has a slight edge
- Seats witnessing an extremely close contest, where it isn’t clear who is ahead
The two sets of analysts have different takes on many of these seats as well as on the voting trends in Uttar Pradesh.
Conservative Estimates
According to political data analyst Partha Das of Chanakyya.com, the Mahagathbandhan could win 16 out of 26 seats in the first three phases in Uttar Pradesh and the BJP could win 10.
Nadeem, the political editor of Navbharat Times gave his predictions after each phase of polling and they also aggregate to roughly the same tally as Das, give or take a few. A few other analysts put their estimate for the Mahagathbandhan at 13. If one looks at the map, the conservative estimate would be that the Mahagathbandhan would win all the 11 seats marked in green – where it has a decisive lead and the two seats where it has an edge.
Even this conservative estimate is a loss of 10 seats for the BJP and a gain of 10 for the Mahagathbandhan.
Beyond numbers, the conservative estimates are based on the following inferences:
- The Mahagathbandhan’s gains in the first three phases are largely the result of arithmetic. The alliance has a decisive lead in seats where at least two out of the Mahagathbandhan’s four core support bases – Muslim, Jatav, Jat and Yadav voters – are present in large numbers. These are seats like Kairana, Meerut, Baghpat, Muzaffarnagar, Nagina, Amroha, Sambhal, Firozabad, Badaun, Rampur and Mainpuri.
- The BJP is holding ground in seats where Upper Caste voters are in large numbers and Muslim voters are less in number, such as Agra, Fatehpur Sikri, Ghaziabad, Gautam Budhh Nagar, Bulandshahr and Hathras.
- The BJP’s losses are largely due to the Mahagathbandhan’s arithmetic and not any negative swing against it.
- The BJP is holding on to its vote among not just Upper Castes but also non-Yadav OBCs and non-Jatav Dalits.
- Despite having an advantage in terms of social coalition, the Mahagathbandhan could struggle in seats where Congress has put up Muslim candidates, such as Saharanpur and Moradabad.
Radical Estimates
However, there are more radical estimates which hint that the BJP might be heading for a wipeout in the state.
According to Anthro.ai’s analysis after the third phase of polling on 23 April:
“We don’t see a single clear win for the BJP in Uttar Pradesh in the third phase. In fact, there are four seats where we may end up seeing a photo-finish – Aonla, Bareilly, Etah and Pilibhit – with the BJP potentially only winning two out of these four. All the other seats are being won by the Gathbandhan candidates.”
Going by this estimate, the SP-BS-RLD won’t just end up winning all the 13 Mahagathbandhan leaning seats in the map but also all the five seats marked as close contests and perhaps even some of the seats where BJP is said to be leading. Roughly this would put the Mahagatbandhan at over 20 out of 26 seats, indicating that Uttar Pradesh is heading for a sweep.
Again going beyond numbers, this prediction is based on the following qualitative observations:
- There is perfect vote transfer of votes among the Mahagathbandhan constituents, particularly because of the coordination between Dalits, Yadavs, Jats and Muslims.
- The Mahagathbandhan has given the impression of winnability because of which several floating voters are shifting towards it.
- There is complete consolidation of Muslim votes behind the Mahagathbandhan across UP, even in seats where the Congress has put up Muslim candidates.
- The Mahagathbandhan’s gains are not just because of Muslim, Jatav, Yadav and Jat voters but there is also a negative swing against the BJP.
Anthro.ai sees it as a trend that goes beyond the elections and terms it as the “comradery of oppressed classes”.
“Younger SP-BSP supporters who are succeeding in not treating each other as belonging to differently ranked social groups. This is translating into a simpler vote transfer than would have been possible ten, or even five years ago, giving the Gathbandan an air of winnability,Anthro.ai
“That, in turn, is convincing the Muslim voter that the Gatbandhan candidate is the best bet. And this is giving rise to a new political reality in Uttar Pradesh where Yogi Adityanath – with his upper-caste semiotics – is considered with ever increasing suspicion,” it further added.
Another interesting piece of data is provided by the CVoter tracker. According to it, around 13 percent of the voters in Uttar Pradesh want to see BSP chief Mayawati as the next prime minister. Since Mayawati’s community, Jatavs, account for around 6 percent of the population in Uttar Pradesh, the remaining 7 percent is coming from other castes. This could be from Muslims as well as non-Jatav Dalits. If non-Jatav Dalits are moving back to the BSP, it is bad news for the BJP which had won the support of this section in the 2014 Lok Sabha polls and 2017 Assembly elections.
Two Predictions
Though both the sets of analysis give predict losses for the BJP, there is huge variation in the magnitude. The conservative analysis – that the BJP is losing some seats due to the formation of the Mahagathbandhan – would mean that both the BJP and the SP-BSP-RLD alliance might end up with a similar tally of 35-40 seats each, with the Congress winning around 3-4 seats.
However, if there indeed is a broader consolidation of minorities and backward communities behind the Mahagathbandhan as well as a negative swing against BJP, it would mean that the BJP is only holding on to some of its strongest seats, particularly in big cities. This would mean that the party’s tally could fall below 25 or possibly even below 20. Conversely, the Mahagathbandhan could cross 50 according to this estimate.
The NDA, which won 73 seats in UP in 2014, is staring at a minimum loss of around 35 seats. If things go worse, the BJP could lose over 50 seats.
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