On 10 July 2019, New Zealand shattered the hopes of millions of confident Indian fans. The ever-enthusiastic fans, who had even planned for the finals, experienced heartbreak, as the Black Caps knocked India out of World Cup 2019 in a two-day contest.
The Indian batters didn't have a good time in challenging English conditions as the Kiwi bowlers caused a lot of damage with the new ball. It was the second such instance in about two years. India's top order had previously collapsed in a knock-out match in England – against Pakistan in the Champions Trophy 2017 final.
It seems England isn't really a lucky place to tour for the 'Men in Blue'. Indian batsmen have often faltered against the moving ball under typical overcast conditions. With India set to play another knock-out match in England, it is reasonable to be sceptical of their performance.
England and New Zealand Aren’t India’s Favourites
India doesn't enjoy playing Test matches in England. India’s win-loss ratio in England, 0.205, is the worst for them among all nations. Their performances in the last three Test series in England since 2011don't inspire enough confidence either. They've won just two out of 14 Tests in this time frame.
It is an arduous task for Test batsmen to succeed in England, particularly for the visiting ones. The pacers swing the ball in the air and extract the seam movement off the deck. Many batsmen fall flat in England because of their fragile defensive techniques, and of course the world-class bowling attacks.
New Zealand can potentially play a four-man pace attack comprising Trent Boult, Tim Southee, Neil Wagner, and Kyle Jamieson. This diversified bowling line-up can be quite lethal in English conditions.
Boult and Southee are primarily swing bowlers and the former’s left-arm angle is an additional advantage against India’s right-handed top-order. The left-arm pacer Wagner can trouble Indian batsmen with his well-directed short-balls and bouncers. Jamieson can also hoop the ball around and awkward bounce is also one of his strengths.
Virat Kohli's men had a tough time against the same bowling line-up in the two-match Test series in 2020. The potent attack could hurt India in the WTC final as well. They would be better served by resisting their urge to play shots, especially on the rise.
Apart from having skilled pacers in their ranks, the New Zealand management is great with their tactics and planning. Their good homework against the oppositions has served them well on many occasions.
Any batting unit would struggle in testing conditions but that can't be an excuse for India now. The senior batsmen need to step up and deliver the goods for their side. The visitors should have a good game if at least two of Cheteshwar Pujara, Virat Kohli, and Ajinkya Rahane perform well.
Pujara would look to continue his steady approach and Rahane might not get big runs; thus Kohli should bear the burden of major run-scoring. The skipper should aim for a stable start and capitalise on it later.
The rest of the unit should also chip in well, as scoring runs is extremely difficult in England. India needs to ensure they don't lose wickets in bunches at testing times; however, they also need to utilise scoring opportunities. The Dukes ball shows a lot of movement in England and going into a shell might not be a good idea.
While plenty of focus will be understandably on the batting department, the Indian bowlers can't relax either. The value of each run increases in tough conditions and the bowlers need to test the Kiwis well. Kane Williamson and co. shouldn't be allowed to score 'easy' runs.
Kane Williamson and Ross Taylor have a good experience playing in such conditions. India planned well for Steve Smith in Australia; now their bowling tactics and execution against the Kiwi duo will hold the key for them.
India's pace attack is also great and has been further bolstered by Mohammed Siraj's rise. Jasprit Bumrah needs to lead the charge well and the others should support him.
Meanwhile, Indian spinners are miles ahead in comparison to their Kiwi counterparts. With the final venue being shifted from Lord's to Southampton, it should help India a bit.
It will be interesting to see if India continues with the Jadeja-Ashwin duo in overseas Tests. It also remains to be seen whether India will opt for Hanuma Vihari instead of one of these premium all-rounders. Siraj also has an outside chance of featuring in the XI.
India's Quest for an ICC Trophy
Kohli and co. have made good progress in Test cricket. They boast of having the best win-loss ratio (3.076) in the format since 2015. India has ended up at the top of the annual ICC Test rankings on all of the last five occasions.
India has also been the best side in the WTC so far. The table-toppers have won over 70% of their matches and tasted victory in five out of their six series. Since the rules were tweaked mid-way after the horrendous tour of New Zealand, there was plenty of uncertainty regarding their spot in the final. But India came at the top in this thrilling journey.
The Indian side emerged victorious in Border-Gavaskar Trophy in Australia, with the odds stacked against them. It was undoubtedly their best moment in the competition, or their Test cricket history for that matter.
Another thrilling contest awaits them on 18 June. This contest, between two high-quality teams, is expected to showcase some good player-battles. Neither side is an outright favourite, thanks to conditions. Both sides have been in pursuit of ICC in the last few ICC tournaments but have narrowly missed the trophies.
New Zealand punch above their weight in ICC tournaments and has good resources for English conditions.
On the other hand, India too has been playing good cricket across formats for many years. Despite qualifying for at least the semi-finals in every ICC tournament since 2014, the silverware has been missing.
As good as they've been in the traditional format, history is kinder to the victors. India has a great opportunity to bag the inaugural World Test Championship in England, and a World Championship victory is the need of the hour.
(Tushar is a freelance cricket writer. Cheering for the Indian cricket team and Data Analysis are his hobbies. He tweets at @mainlycricket.)
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