It is interesting that a party whose idea was born in a flat in Kaushambi in Ghaziabad and whose leader contested his first Lok Sabha election from Varanasi, took eight years to announce its full fledged entry into the electoral battlefield of Uttar Pradesh.
Earlier this week, Aam Aadmi Party's (AAP) national convenor and Delhi Chief Minister Arvind Kejriwal announced that his party plans to contest the 2022 Assembly elections in Uttar Pradesh.
Following this announcement AAP’s official handles on Twitter as well as its supporters trended two hashtags: “#UPMeinBhiKejriwal” and “#KejriwalVsYogiModel”.
The message is clear, after winning a huge majority in the Delhi Assembly elections for the second time earlier this year, the AAP wants to go national and expand beyond its core areas like Delhi and Punjab.
Another interesting development has taken place in this context. Uttar Pradesh education minister Satish Dwivedi challenged his Delhi counterpart Manish Sisodia to an open debate on the state of schools, which the latter accepted. Sisodia is scheduled to visit Lucknow on 22 December.
A number of questions need to be answered regarding AAP's efforts.
Why Uttar Pradesh?
Kejriwal's announcement needs to be seen as part of AAP's attempt to fulfill the criteria to be recognised as a national party before the next Lok Sabha elections.
For that the easiest and fastest path for it would be to be recognised as a state party in four states. It is presently recognised as such in two states – Delhi and Punjab. Assuming it is able to retain that status in Punjab, it would need to fulfill one of the following three conditions in two more states:
- Get over 8 percent votes in an Assembly poll
- Win 3 percent of the seats or 3 seats whichever is more
- Win 6 percent of the valid votes and in addition win two seats
Now, AAP is unlikely to achieve this in the states that go to polls next year: West Bengal, Assam, Kerala, Tamil Nadu and Puducherry.
So then, its target has to be 2022 beginning, when UP, Uttarakhand, Goa and Punjab go to polls. AAP is confident that it would be able to meet the state party criteria in not just Punjab but also Goa.
Then the next target for it would be Uttarakhand and Uttar Pradesh. So far, it has a better presence in the Uttarakhand, but it seems like the party also wants to give UP a try to fulfill its aim.
It already fulfills the criteria in Delhi and Punjab and fancies its chances of doing the same in Goa, which goes to polls with UP in 2022.
Who is Leading AAP's Campaign in UP?
AAP's campaign in Uttar Pradesh is being spearheaded by Rajya Sabha MP Sanjay Singh and Timarpur MLA Dilip Pandey, who is also AAP's chief whip in the Delhi Assembly. Both Singh and Pandey have been making frequent trips to various parts of Uttar Pradesh to expand AAP's membership as well as carry out protests.
Singh, for instance, took part in protests following the Hathras gang rape. Apparently, Singh has been spending most of his time in Uttar Pradesh and some of his responsibilities in Delhi – such as addressing media briefings – have been reassigned.
The AAP has several other leaders who are originally from UP – such as Delhi minister Gopal Rai who is originally from Mau in Eastern UP, Seelampur MLA Abdul Rehman, originally from Dasna in Ghaziabad, Model Town MLA Akhilesh Pati Tripathi and senior leader Durgesh Pathak from Sant Kabir Nagar.
What is the Party's Main Pitch for UP?
While showcasing the "Delhi Model" or "Kejriwal Model", that is its achievements in Delhi, AAP is focussing on three main issues: education, power supply and healthcare. The intention is to highlight failures of the Yogi Adityanath government and put forward the "Delhi model" as the solution.
AAP has also criticised the BJP government on its handling of the COVID-19 pandemic and UP minister Sidharth Nath Singh responded to AAP at a press conference, saying that AAP is trying to introduce "failed ideas from Delhi" in UP.
What Areas, Caste Groups Is It Targeting?
Though AAP has said it wants to have a presence across the state, so far the focus seems to be slightly more in urban areas than rural. In particular, it hopes to do well in areas bordering Delhi like Gautam Buddh Nagar and Ghaziabad and in cities like Kanpur and Lucknow.
Though AAP has consistently claimed that it doesn't play caste politics, but the choices it makes do have caste dimensions. The two leaders handling its affairs in UP are both Upper Caste – Singh is a Thakur from Sultanpur in Central UP while Pandey is a Brahmin, originally from Zamania in Ghazipur district of eastern UP.
Delhi CM Kejriwal himself comes from the Vaish community and his deputy Sisodia is a Thakur. Therefore, much of AAP's leadership is Upper Caste dominated.
Will AAP Ally With Any Other Party?
It is unlikely that AAP would align with any of the major parties in the state – BJP, SP, BSP and Congress as it would dilute its message of alternative politics. At most, it can possibly join hands with smaller parties.
There were rumours that it would join forces with Suheldev Bhartiya Samaj Party leader Om Prakash Rajbhar. But earlier this week, Rajbhar met All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen (AIMIM) chief Asaduddin Owaisi and the latter announced an alliance between the two parties.
It is highly unlikely that AAP and AIMIM would ally with each other. So, it’s not clear if AAP will be able to revive ties with SBSP.
Now, two interesting questions, which are more open to interpretation.
Why Did the BJP Invite AAP For a Debate?
It is strange to see the UP education minister Dwivedi invite AAP for a debate or Sidharth Nath Singh responding to its allegations. After all, AAP doesn't have a single MLA or MLC in Uttar Pradesh and isn't even recognised as a state party.
And the BJP hasn't quite reacted in a similar fashion to the SP, BSP, Congress or smaller UP based parties like Rashtriya Lok Dal, SBSP or Peace Party.
So, why AAP?
There's a conspiracy theory that it is the BJP that wants to give prominence to a new opposition voice to contain the rise of its traditional rivals.
The results of the past three elections in UP – 2017, 2012 and 2007 did show that floating voters shifted to a party that was most likely to defeat the incumbent. In all three elections, the winning parties – BJP, SP and BSP respectively – not only consolidated their core votes but also secured a lot of votes outside their main votebank, which eventually sealed their victory.
The ruling BJP may be afraid that despite its strong position in the state, the anti-incumbency vote would consolidate behind the strongest Opposition party which, as of now, is the SP.
In this case, the emergence of newer and louder Opposition voices like AAP could be a challenge to established Opposition parties.
Who Is the AAP Likely to Harm?
Upper Caste and urban voters – AAP’s main targets – are both categories where BJP is strong. This is also a section which the Congress wants to win over from BJP. So, if at all AAP manages to make an impact, it would be among disgruntled BJP voters who may otherwise have otherwise shifted to another Opposition party like Congress, SP or BSP or stayed away from voting or remained with the BJP though reluctantly.
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