Amit Shah’s Demographic Change & Muslim Population Remarks Overlook the Real Drivers of Population Change

The Union Home Minister Amit Shah, in his speech on 10 October at a function of Hindi newspaper Dainik Jagran, implied that the demographic profile of India is changing and the population of Muslims is increasing. This, he claimed, is mainly because of illegal migration from neighbouring countries. It is a common saying that the same set of statistics can be used to highlight facts convenient to the proponent while obfuscating those which are inconvenient.While the basic fact stated by Shah—that the population of Muslims in India has arisen to 14.2 percent as per the 2011 census from 9.8 percent as per the 1951 census—cannot be disputed, it is still necessary to analyse the census data and put things in perspective.India's 'Population Explosion' & Two-Child Policy: Myths Versus FactsThe Pew Research Centre has analysed the census data from 1951 to 2011 in detail and brought out several other facets. The findings clearly show that in spite of Muslim population growing relatively faster than the Hindus, the gap in the absolute population of Hindus and Muslims has increased threefold. The gap which was 26.9 crores in 1951 stands at 79.4 crores in 2011. It is apparent that any fear of Muslim population overtaking the Hindu population is highly exaggerated.The difference in comparative decadal growth of population of Hindus and Muslims, referred by the Home Minister, has also to be compared from the angle of overall comparative drop between the two religious communities. The fact that the decadal rate of growth of Muslims at 24.7 percent in decade 2001-2011 is higher than that of Hindus at 16.7 percent cannot be denied. However, comparison of drop in decadal growth would indicate that 8 percent fall in case of Muslims for period 1951–2011 is double that of Hindus. While the rate of growth of Muslims witnessed a decline of 8 percent from 32.7 percent in 1951-1961 to 24.7 in 2001–2011, the rate of fall amongst Hindus was 4 percent for the same period ie 20.7 percent in 1951-61 to 16.7 percent in 2001-2011.The fall in the decadal growth rate of Muslims is a pointer to the fact that increasing spread of education, specially amongst Muslim women, has brought consciousness amongst them about the necessity of family planning and increasing acceptance of contraceptive to avoid or delay conception.The main thrust of the speech of Home Minister was that the increase in population of Muslims is not organic. He made specific reference to the States of West Bengal and Assam, and stated that there had been exceptional rise in the population of Muslims in these states, mainly because of illegal migration from Bangladesh. It would be appropriate to analyse the census data of decadal growth of these states and compare it with the decadal growth of population for the entire countryExtracts of Tables obtained from census of India website are reproduced below.Analysis of tables would indicate that except for 1961 and 1971 in case of Assam and 1961 in case of West Bengal (also to a limited extent in 1971), the decadal growth of population in case of both these states has been in line with the national growth rate. The higher growth rate of population for the period between 1951 - 1961 is attributed to Hindus continuing to migrate from East Pakistan through the decade. The higher than the national average of growth of population for period 1961-1971 is attributed to the problems in then East Pakistan and devastating effects of cyclone Bhola. Decadal growth of these two bordering states being in conformity with national average negates the claims of illegal migrants coming from Bangladesh and settling in border areas. Additionally, there is no incentive for them to settle in border areas because of lack of infrastructure and absence of employment opportunity in border areas. The population in areas close to Bangladesh border is mostly living in squalor. Hence, there is very little likelihood of their quality of life improving and getting better than it was in Bangladesh. They would rather go to the interiors where there are employment opportunities for low level unskilled domestic work.Bordering districts in these States and also in Tripura have always had large Muslim population. In fact, Malda and surrounding areas being Muslim majority were slated to go to Pakistan and in anticipation the Malda District administration office actually flew the Pakistani flag on its building till 18 August 1947, when the boundary award was finally announced and it became part of India. Narrative of illegal migrants flooding the country, especially in the border areas, is thus highly exaggerated. The government doesn’t have any authentic data to ascertain the gravity of the problem. As per Rajya Sabha unstarred question No 55, by Jharna Das Baidya on 16 November 2016, the MOS Home replied that “....there are around 20 million illegal Bangladeshi migrants staying in India”. However, where the inputs were received from and what was their authenticity was not indicated. Subsequently, in response to Lok Sabha Starred Question No 225 by Mallikarjun Kharge, the government on 1 August 2017 backtracked to state that it did not have accurate data about the number of illegal migrants in India.The claims of large number of illegal migrants in India are also negated through many other examples. The first and foremost is the NRC exercise carried out in Assam. As against the claims of several million illegal migrants, only about 16 lakh people have been excluded from the NRC list. These include 7 lakh Muslims and 5 lakh Bengali Hindus, besides some Gurkhas etc.The data put up by the Election Commission about the Special Intensive Revision of electoral roles, which was widely believed to have been carried out to detect illegal foreign nationals in Bihar, has brought out the fact of existence of minuscule number of foreign nationals in an adult population of almost 8 crores in Bihar. Large number of these foreigners are said to be Hindus from Nepal, with whom India has a treaty of friendship according rights to Nepali citizens similar to Indian citizens in matters of employment, residence etc.Citing difficulty in preventing illegal migration through porous border and putting onus for preparation of AADHAR and other identity documents on state governments is a feeble attempt to shift responsibility. Evictions in Assam, SIR in Bengal? Migrants Pay for BJP's Anti-Bangladeshi PushThe primary responsibility of preventing illegal entry remains that of BSF and thereby, the Central Government. The riverine border being difficult to patrol is exploited by those trying to enter illegally for settling down or to commit a crime. However, one major factor for dilution of vigil on the India–Bangladesh border is the low priority accorded to this border vis–a-vis the western border with Pakistan. Repeated withdrawal of large number of troops mainly from the border with Bangladesh is indicative of the low priority accorded. Repeated withdrawal for long duration not only reduces troop density, it also puts heavy burden on remaining troops as they have to work for even more longer hours and patrol a larger area.Even at present, there are said to be close to 20 Units of BSF withdrawn mainly from these borders and deployed in Manipur. During the general elections of 2024, as many as 30 to 40 percent troops were said to have been withdrawn from here for close to four months. Comparison with Western border that Amit Shah made is like comparing chalk with cheese because of the widely different nature of the border, the terrain, population composition and nature of crime on those borders. The border along Pakistan is bereft of any population ahead or close to the fence, making detection easier. There rarely, if ever, are attempts of illegal migration from Pakistan.The nature of crime along these borders is confined to supplying logistics, weapons, and finances to militant sleeper cells in India besides drug smuggling. Greater density of troops along the border with Pakistan, and the aggressive nature of border guarding, has compelled the border crossers to adopt newer techniques like tunnels and drones. While illegal migration to India from neighbouring countries is a problem, India needs to work on identifying its magnitude and initiate concrete action to tackle the menace by identifying and deporting illegal migrants. Concerted efforts to tackle the problem are needed.(Sanjiv Krishan Sood (Retd) has served as the Additional Director General of the BSF and was also with the SPG. He tweets @sood_2. This is an opinion piece and the views expressed above are the author’s own. The Quint neither endorses nor is responsible for the same.)

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Amit Shah’s 'Demographic Change' Claim Oversimplifies a Far More Complex Reality

Narrative of illegal migrants flooding the country, especially in the border areas, is highly exaggerated: SK Sood.

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Topics: Amit Shah Population Muslims