No one saw it coming. With one round of the five-stage panchayat polls still left, the BJP, which had won only 36 Zilla Parishad (ZP) zones in 2012, has taken a giant stride forward in Odisha, having won close to 250 seats, according to unofficial figures reported by the local media. In the process, it has made sure it would form ZPs in eight out of the 30 districts in the state.
The results, even though unofficial, have come as a severe jolt to the BJD that had won an incredible 651 out of the total of 853 seats at stake last time. With just 150 zones going to polls in the last phase on Tuesday, the party is set to end up with about 200 seats less than it had won in 2012. Worryingly for the ruling party, the gap between them and the BJP has narrowed down with each passing phase.
Never in the 17 years that it has been in power in the state had the party looked more vulnerable. Party leaders are still latching on to the “We are still No 1” bravado, but the signs are unmistakable. For the first time ever, the BJD is being given a run for its money by a party that has been a distant third in the political sweepstakes in the state so far.
The Congress, which had won 128 zones last time, has been pushed to the margins winning just about 50 seats, turning what would have been a three-cornered fight to an essentially two-horse race. The near-total and pan-Odisha eclipse of the Congress – with the exception of Jharsguda where it is set to form the ZP – is the single biggest reason for the massive surge in the BJP’s vote share.
Intense infighting, a moribund organization and listless party workers have all combined to pull down the party from its position as the principal opposition party in the state.
It would, however, be wrong to attribute the BJP’s spectacular performance in the panchayat elections entirely to the fall of the Congress. It is also an indication that after 17 uninterrupted years in power, the BJD is finally feeling the heat of anti-incumbency.
The surest possible proof of this is the inroads the BJP has made into its support base in its traditional stronghold of coastal Odisha, winning an impressive number of seats in districts like Balasore (13 out of 35 so far) and Kendrapara (9 out of 27) and Dhenkanal (9 out of 21). Though the BJD is going to form the ZP in all these districts, it can rest on its laurels only at its own peril.
A number of factors worked against the BJD and in favour of the BJP in this panchayat election. For starters, party supremo Naveen Patnaik’s over-dependence on a few trusted bureaucrats and the sidelining of party leaders in everything from formulating election strategy to finalizing candidates has cost the BJD dear. It has left BJD leaders sulking.
The arrogance and complacency of party leaders, including ministers and MLAs, was another factor that has worked to the detriment of the ruling party. Most observers believe Naveen’s refusal to campaign extensively – as he had done the last time round – also led to the slump in the party’s vote share. It is now clear that the BJD’s hopes of swimming to victory on the Mahanadi water dispute with Chhattisgarh have been dashed. It had hoped that the BJP’s strategy of requisitioning the services of Chhattisgarh Chief Minister Raman Singh to campaign in areas contiguous with his state would boomerang on the saffron party.
But by harping on the BJD’s acts of omission and commission and calling the party’s bluff during his election rallies, Singh managed to seriously damage the BJD’s credentials as a party that fights for the interest of the people. Last but not the least, far from harming the prospects of the BJP, indications are that demonetisation actually helped the party.
Though the BJD has been pulled off the high pedestal it had perched itself on, it would be wrong to see the results of the panchayat elections as an indication that it is going to lose the next Assembly elections in 2019. For one thing, it is still the pre-eminent party in the state with the BJP, even though it has a lot of catching up to do.
For another, it has time on its hands to make amends for whatever has gone wrong in these elections. But the one thing that can be said with a degree of certainty at this stage is that the next election is not going to be a cakewalk for the BJD like it has been so far.
(Writer is a senior Bhubaneswar-based journalist and has reported for the BBC for the last twenty years.)
(This is an opinion piece and the views expressed above are the author’s own. The Quint neither endorses nor is responsible for the same.)
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