Water Demand May Outstrip Supply by 2050, But There is Hope

Currently there is a risk of major water shortage by 2050. But also an opportunity to create innovative solutions, a new study says.

Population growth could cause global demand for water to outpace supply by mid-century if current levels of consumption continue, according to a new study by Duke University.

Periods of increased demand for water - often coinciding with population growth or other major demographic and social changes - were followed by periods of rapid innovation of new water technologies that helped end or ease any shortages, the study said.

Based on this recurring pattern, researchers from Duke University predict a similar period of innovation could occur in coming decades.

“What our model shows us is that there will likely be a new phase of change in the global water supply system by the mid-21st century,” said Anthony Parolari, postdoctoral research associate in civil and environmental engineering at Duke, who led the new study.

“This could take the form of a gradual move toward new policies that encourage a sustainable rate of water use, or it could be a technological advancement that provides a new source of water for us to tap into. There’s a range of possibilities,” he said.

Per-capita water use has been declining since 1980, largely due to improved efficiency measures and heightened public awareness of the importance of conserving Earth’s limited supply of freshwater. This has helped offset the impacts of recent population growth.

If population growth trends continue, per-capita water use will have to decline even more sharply for there to be enough water to meet demand,

–Anthony Parolari, postdoctoral research associate, who led the new study  .

The world’s population is projected to surge to 9.6 billion by 2050, up from an estimated 7 billion today.

“The model suggests we may reach a tipping point where efficiency measures are no longer sufficient and water scarcity either impacts population growth or pushes us to find new water supplies,” Parolari said.

Water recycling, and finding new and better ways to remove salt from seawater, are among the more likely technological advances that could help alleviate or avoid future water shortages, he said.