A modeling study predicting the rate of spread of COVID-19 has found that with no mitigating measures, the outbreak could cause more than half a million deaths in Britain and 2.2 million in the United States, reports Reuters.
The study projected a ‘worst case’ scenario of deaths and an overburdened healthcare system.
The study moved the British government in modifying its approach, with Prime Minister Borish Johnson closing down social life and recommending isolation for people over 70 with health problems.
The study results are based on data derived from Italy, which has reported the highest number of COVID-19 cases after China. Led by Neil Ferguson, professor of mathematical biology at Imperial College London, it said that the government’s earlier plan of home isolation of suspected cases but no restrictions on wider society could still have resulted in almost 250,000 people dying.
The researchers have advised ‘extreme social distancing’ to flatten the curve.
Azra Ghani, professor at Imperial who co-led the work said,
The British government has claimed that the study made it accelerate its plans, but the measures had always been ‘part of the government’s action plan’, according to the Reuters report.
This comes after the UK government’s measures were viewed as insufficient by public health experts, especially with the worry that it may be hoping to acquire ‘herd immunity’.
The report quoted Peter Piot, director of the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine who said that UK’s approach is ‘evidence-informed’ and there is ‘no one size fits all approach’ to control it’.
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