It's a sweep for the DMK-Congress alliance as predicted in the Lok Sabha polls, but not a total sweep in the by polls to 22 assembly seats. In fact, Tamil Nadu, Kerala and Andhra Pradesh are the only three states that have resisted a BJP entry.
First, the fact that it’s a brute-majority BJP-led government in Delhi would mean that the DMK, like all other regional parties, will have no say at the Centre, despite leading the alliance to sweep in 37 of the 38 seats.
Further, the BJP has been the reason the AIADMK government has survived in Tamil Nadu, and with the BJP in power at Delhi, the DMK may find it tough to topple the ruling AIADMK government. The BJP effect is compounded by the fact that in the by elections to 22 assembly seats, at the time of writing this piece, the numbers stood at 13 for the DMK and 9 for the AIADMK. Even if the numbers go up for the DMK by 2 seats, where the fight seems eerily close, the DMK will end up only with 15 more assembly seats. At the moment the DMK, Congress and IUML have 97 seats in the 234-member house.
Can Stalin Become Chief Minister?
Going by the 13 seats in the by polls, where the trends clearly suggest a DMK win, the DMK alliance will have 110 seats in the assembly. This is 8 seats short of a majority in a full house. However, 3 AIADMK MLAs are opposed to the E Palanisamy government and 3 independents do not back it. In this scenario, the numbers for the AIADMK aren't certain, and there is bound to be instability in the state.
But, can the DMK effect a fall of the government, is the question. With the BJP behind the present dispensation, it is not clear how the numbers game will play in the house.
Even if the DMK manages to get the numbers, the question is, can it and will it force a fresh election in the state?
It is a massive risk for the party as the outcome in a fresh assembly poll, and when it could be held is uncertain. Given that Rajinikanth has said he will contest the next assembly poll, his probable entry, finally, into politics, could confuse the political equation on the ground.
It’s unlikely that MK Stalin, leader of the DMK, will act in haste. Even if they had the numbers, Stalin was keen to have a fresh election and take charge with a clear majority.
But now that they do not have the clear numbers, he will have to wait it out. The sweep in the Lok Sabha polls certainly establishes him as the most credible leader in Tamil Nadu, but his ultimate aim is to be chief minister, and that will have to wait.
MK Stalin Will Have To Be Careful About How He Uses His Victory
Politics is a constant change, and every election is a gamble. Even if one has just swept an election, the next one may not throw up the same result, and Stalin will find himself in a delicate situation despite a clear victory.
As far as the AIADMK government is concerned, there is bound to be churning. E Palanisamy's leadership will certainly be questioned, as the party lost even in his home turf of Salem. But the sheer fact that the party has managed to avoid a total rout in the by polls, could give him a life line.
In effect, the AIADMK will be more dependent on the BJP, and will continue to be dictated by Delhi. The BJP will certainly attempt an experiment in Tamil Nadu and make every attempt to make inroads in the state.
Having won the Lok Sabha polls, MK Stalin will have to be very careful in the way he plays his cards and uses his victory. The DMK needs the Congress at the local level, and hence will remain in the Opposition in Delhi, but it may not be a belligerent one, and will attempt at building bridges with Narendra Modi.
(The writer is an independent journalist. He can be reached @TMVRaghav . This is an opinion piece and the views expressed above are the author’s own. The Quint neither endorses nor is responsible for the same)
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