The latest election tracker by ABP News and C-Voter has predicted more bad news for Prime Minister Narendra Modi in Uttar Pradesh. According to the survey, the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance's projected tally has slumped from 36 in December to 25.
Much of the gains have gone to the Mahagathbandhan comprising the Samajwadi Party, Bahujan Samaj Party and Rashtriya Lok Dal, which are projected to win 51 seats in the state. This is a projected loss of 48 seats for the NDA, which had won 73 seats in the 2014 Lok Sabha elections.
In terms of vote-share, the Mahagathbandhan at 43 percent is one percent ahead of the NDA at 42 percent. However, it is leading to a higher difference in the number of seats.
However, C-Voter made it clear that the survey was conducted before the Congress party announced the appointment of Priyanka Gandhi Vadra as its general secretary in-charge for Eastern Uttar Pradesh, which is likely to change the existing equations in the state.
But even without factoring in Priyanka's appointment, the survey predicts that the Congress' tally could be four seats, that is two seats in addition to the family bastions of Amethi and Rae Bareli. Another piece of encouraging news for the Congress is that its projected vote share is at 12.7 percent, which is significant considering that the state was tipped to be a two-way battle between the NDA and the Mahagathbandhan.
According to C-Voter, the Congress contesting on its own is more likely to harm the BJP than the Mahagathbandhan.
“The conventional wisdom of INC’s value addition to MGB might be misplaced. INC’s voters are part-common with the BJP and thus non-transferable to SP-BSP, therefore in event of an alliance INC might benefit itself but may not benefit the MGB. INC will damage the BJP more by not joining the MGB,” C-Voter observed.
The C-Voter survey’s findings come a day after India Today and Karvy predicted that the NDA could fall to 18 seats in Uttar Pradesh, a loss of 55 seats compared to 2014.
Viewed together, these surveys show that India’s most populous state, which gave Narendra Modi 73 seats in 2014, is now becoming the BJP’s worst nightmare.
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