As Gujarat prepares for the big assembly election, politicians in Karnataka are keeping a close watch on the campaign and the results. Not only will the results of Gujarat elections give a morale boost to either one of the political parties, but it will also decide the tone of the campaign of assembly polls in Karnataka in 2018.
In Gujarat, Congress is campaigning keeping national issues of GST, demonetisation and subsequent economic slowdown at the forefront, while BJP has been focusing on Modi’s development agenda. What wins in Gujarat is expected to heavily influence the campaigning in Karnataka.
What Karnataka Wants to Learn from Gujarat
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Congress in Gujarat, apart from the social-engineering and caste politics, has built a narrative on Narendra Modi's economic policy decisions that has left the country divided.
As the first major election since the introduction of GST and demonetisation, it is unclear how effective these issues will be in consolidating anti-BJP votes. This makes Gujarat a testing ground for both BJP and Congress. In Karnataka, where the elections have been fought on local issues, the effectiveness of these issues, can bring a change in the poll strategies.
Poll Preparations in Karnataka So Far
Preparations for the polls began over a year ago for the Congress. Chief Minister Siddaramaiah has been rolling out pro-poor schemes, popular among masses. From providing free rice, financial assistance for weddings, universal health care to commissioning canteens providing food at Rs 10, the schemes address key aspects of voters’ lives.
He has also managed to bring the demand for Karnataka flag and an anti-Hindi imposition campaign to project the government as pro-Kannada, building a strong regional agenda to counter a likely Modi-centric campaign by BJP.
He hasnt lagged behind in social-engineering either. As a large chunk of the BJP’s votes came from the Lingayats, Siddaramaiah has been visibly backing a campaign demanding religious status for the Lingayat community in Karnataka. The caste census is said to be the CM’s trump card, which he is likely to release just before the polls. He may use the census to promise over 70 percent reservation in the state, based on the strengths of the communities. This could polarise the electorate on lines of caste. Strategists say this will also prevent a consolidation of Hindu votes in favour of BJP.
While Congress has managed to get itself into a good position so far, the BJP has been sluggish. It was only after Amit Shah’s visit to Bangalore in August that BJP began a serious campaign. Last month, ‘Parivartan Yatra’ – a chariot rally across all constituencies in Karnataka – was kicked off by BJP. The rally has been focusing on the corruption in the Congress government than projecting Modi.
The Impact
According to party insiders, Congress will start emphasising on national issues, especially the controversial policies of Modi government, if it yields results in Gujarat. While the Congress’ strategy relies heavily on the regional plank built by Siddaramaiah, economic slowdown will help Congress counter Narendra Modi in the state, or so they believe.
Congress wants to make the elections as much on local issues, as it provides them an advantage, but for BJP, which doesn’t have much to boast about its administrative achievement, the best is showcasing their government at the Centre and rallying behind Modi.
If the Modi wave doesn’t work in Gujarat, it will be a big blow for BJP. In short, an adverse result in Gujarat has more disadvantages for BJP than advantages for Congress.
Increase in Seats, If Not Victory – A Moral Boost For Congress
Sandeep Shastri, a political analyst and pro-vice chancellor of Jain University, Bengaluru said that historically, in assembly elections, the local issues were key. However, as issues like GST and demonetisation have been gaining traction, Congress may use them indirectly if these issues aid them in Gujarat.
For a morale boost for Karnataka Congress, a win is not required in Gujarat says Shastri. “If BJP doesn’t better its performance, it will be defeat is some sense for the BJP, and it will impact elections in Karnataka. According to me, even Congress is looking for a drastic increase in its vote share than an outright victory in the Gujarat,” he said.
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