After the newly formed Congress-JD(S) alliance in Karnataka resolves the ongoing tussle over portfolios, it will be met with its second big challenge – the urban local body elections. Scheduled to be held in August-September, the election will be a litmus test for the Congress-JD(S) partnership.
There are two options before them.
1. Forge a pre-poll alliance and fight the BJP together. But, risk alienating their local party leaders. 2. Go it alone, fight each other and the BJP in their individual capacity. But this would entail criticising each other at the local level, despite standing together in the Vidhana Soudha.
The Double-Edged Sword
The urban local body polls will see elections for 4,800 seats to run 207 urban local bodies, including city corporations, city municipal corporations, town municipal corporations and town panchayats.
During the 2013 urban local body elections, the Congress had won 1,906 seats, while the BJP and the JD(S) managed only 906 seats each. As the 2013 urban local body elections were held months before the Assembly elections, it was seen as a ‘semi-final’ as it reflected the voter sentiment.
However, this year, the local body election has been delayed due to technical reasons. So instead of a semi-final to the Assembly elections, this year’s local body elections can also be seen as a referendum on the Congress-JD(S) alliance.
What’s At Stake
1. Image of a United Opposition Ahead of 2019
The Congress-JD(S) alliance became the harbinger of opposition unity for the 2019 General Election during HD Kumaraswamy’s oath-taking ceremony.
National leaders, some of whom are bitter political rivals like Mayawati and Akhilesh and Mamata Banerjee and Sitaram Yechury, shared the stage, signalling a will to set aside regional ambitions to take on Modi at the Centre.
Any disconnect between the Congress and the JD(S) alliance is bound to hit the very image of this larger Opposition coalition which is still in the works.
A Congress leader also pointed out that the oath-taking ceremony of Kumaraswamy was an occasion for projecting the hope of a grand alliance in the Centre. “This changes the situation. Now even an urban local body election will be watched carefully by the entire country. And the Congress and the JD(S) not contesting together would send a message that they don’t trust each other enough and the alliance is temporary,” the leader pointed out.
2. Questions Over the Efficacy of the State Government
So if the two parties decide to contest the local body elections separately, like they did the Rajarajeshwari bypoll, it is bound to have national ramifications apart from raising some valid questions over the efficacy of the government in power in the state.
Consider the fact that if both parties contest separately, they will have to criticise and compete with their allies. And in case they contest together, several local leaders of both parties will be denied posts in the local administration, which is bound to lead to disaffection among their grass-root base.
“In the second scenario, where they decide to contest together, it will be difficult for the candidates to criticise the governance, as both parties rule the state together. Any criticism could have an impact on the workers and the image of the alliance, ahead of the 2019 elections,” pointed out A Narayana of Azim Premji University.
3. Losing Ground Support
Not just that. The decision to fight the urban local body elections together will also adversely impact the Congress and the JD(S)’ grass-root base.
“Local leaders are integral part of any political party and you cultivate them by providing posts in local bodies. In case both parties fight the election together, many local leaders, from both parties, will lose the opportunity to get posts, as they will have to be divided between the JD(S) and the Congress. This could demoralise several ground level party workers,” said Dr Harish Ramaswamy, a political analyst and faculty at Karnatak University.
According to him, the parties would rather contest separately to preserve their grass-root level leaders and fight the Lok Sabha elections together.
JD(S)-Congress Going Together For Local Body Election Could Help the BJP
Political analysts point out that if the Congress and the JD(S) fight the urban local body election together, it could lead to the BJP making gains, especially in the Old Mysuru region.
“In case some Vokkaliga workers from the JD(S) are denied tickets, the BJP could easily sway them. Being a party that believes in having a strong booth-plevel presence, this would be an ideal ground for the BJP to establish themselves in the Old Mysuru region,” pointed out a JD(S) leader.
Losing their powerful local leaders is not an option for both the JD(S) and the Congress. But the image and stability of the coalition is as important, not just for Karnataka, but on the national level as well.
It will be a tough choice to make – risk the image of their coalition or risk losing their grassroot level leadership.
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