Karnataka Bypolls: Cong-JD(S) Vote Share Rings Alarm Bells for BJP

The Congress-JD(S) coalition has managed to win more than 45-60 percent of votes in all the five constituencies.

Published
Politics
3 min read
The key takeaways from the results are that the coalition has managed to win more than 45-60 percent of the votes in all five constituencies.
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The Congress-Janata Dal (Secular) coalition has passed its first litmus test. Putting up a joint front, it won four seats; in one seat, despite the loss, they gained in vote share. The key takeaway from the results is that the coalition has managed to win more than 45-60 percent of the votes in all the five constituencies.

The results have put the BJP in a tight spot because there was an erosion of votes in both the seats where they were incumbents. Even in south Karnataka, where they managed to make gains unlike the Congress-JD(S), their increase in vote share was restricted to 10-20 percent. This is crucial as the BJP was hoping to get a large chunk of the Congress’ vote in the old Mysuru region.

Most importantly, in Shivamoga and Ballari, the coalition partners managed to have a near total transfer of votes. A comparison of the votes won by the Congress and the JD(S) individually in the previous elections, and their performance as an alliance in the by-election indicates this transfer of votes.

Here’s a breakdown of the vote share for the Congress-JD(S) coalition, and the BJP:

Ballari

Karnataka Bypolls: Cong-JD(S) Vote Share Rings Alarm Bells for BJP
(Photo: The Quint)

Congress + JD(S)

  • 2018 – 6,28,365 votes
  • 2014 – 4,61,875 votes

BJP

  • 2018 – 3,85,204 votes
  • 2014 – 5,34,406 votes

In Ballari, the BJP has lost 13.9 percent vote share since 2014, and the coalition has increased its vote share by 16.53 percent. Clearly, the Congress and JD(S) have eaten into BJP's vote bank in Ballari.

Shivamoga

Karnataka Bypolls: Cong-JD(S) Vote Share Rings Alarm Bells for BJP
(Photo: The Quint)

Congress + JD(S)

  • 2018 – 4,91,158 votes
  • 2014 – 4,83,547 votes

BJP

  • 2018 – 5,43,306 votes
  • 2014 – 6,06,216 votes

There is a near-perfect transfer of JD(S) votes to the Congress in Shivamoga.

Mandya

Karnataka Bypolls: Cong-JD(S) Vote Share Rings Alarm Bells for BJP
(Photo: The Quint)

Congress + JD(S)

  • 2018 – 5,69,347 votes
  • 2014 – 10,43,222 votes

BJP

  • 2018 – 2,44,404 votes
  • 2014 – 86,993 votes

Despite the loss, the BJP had increased its vote share, but only by 20.35 percent. The BJP is believed to have eaten into Congress' vote share in Mandya, but the BJP needed a larger shift in votes here to make their presence felt in this region.

Jamkhandi

Karnataka Bypolls: Cong-JD(S) Vote Share Rings Alarm Bells for BJP
(Photo: The Quint)

Congress + JD(S)

  • 2018 (By-election): 97,017 votes
  • 2018 (May): 50,094 votes

BJP

  • 2018: (By-election) 57,537 votes
  • 2018 (May): 46,450 votes

During the assembly elections, two independent candidates, one of them a BJP rebel, had secured 28.85 percent of the votes in this constituency . The Congress has likely gained these votes and consolidated its victory, while BJP’s vote share increased only marginally.

Ramanagara

Karnataka Bypolls: Cong-JD(S) Vote Share Rings Alarm Bells for BJP
(Photo: The Quint)

Congress+ JD(S)

  • 2018 (by-election) - 1,25,043 votes
  • 2018 (May) - 1,62,616 votes

BJP

  • 2018 (by-election) - 15,906 votes
  • 2018 (May) - 4871 votes

The BJP increased its vote share by 7.9 percent despite its candidate backing out of the race days before the bypolls. But this increase is too small to threaten the coalition in the region.

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