Ahead of the crucial by-elections in Karnataka, the Bhartiya Janata Party (BJP) is confident. They are certain of winning seven seats, which is the minimum requirement to retain power. The BJP gets its confidence from the Opposition’s failure to field strong candidates against disqualified MLAs.
However, not all contests are going to be a cakewalk for the saffron party. Some constituencies remain difficult to predict owing to their complex political equations. And these constituencies will be watched carefully by the people of Karnataka in the coming days for the nail-biting contest they offer.
Shivajinagar: A Scam and A Former MLA
In the heart of Bengaluru city, Muslim-dominated Shivajinagar was considered a Congress stronghold. Since 2008 this seat was won by Congress’ Roshan Baig. Denied a Cabinet berth in the recent JD(S)-Congress government, Baig changed camps to the BJP.
Although promised a ticket earlier, a day before deadline for filing nominations, the BJP refused to induct him into the party.
An upset Baig threatened to contest as an independent and said he would get the support of the Muslim community. However, just a week before the election he was seen at the BJP campaign office asking Muslims to support Narendra Modi.
So why is Baig still important in Shivajinagar and why does his appearance at the BJP office matter? The answer lies in candidate selection by the three major parties.
There are two large vote banks in Shivajinagar: Muslims and Tamils. The Congress, JD(S) and SDPI have fielded Muslim candidates, while the BJP has fielded a Tamil candidate.
Candidates of the Congress and the JD(S) have rigorously campaigned in the hope of getting the Muslim votes. However, the chances are these votes will be split between these two major parties and the SDPI, which is popular in Shivajinagar.
Aware that Tamil votes alone wouldn’t ensure their victory, the BJP, which refused to induct Baig into the party, has approached him again. According to sources, he was not offered a post but was threatened with arrest in the recent IMA scam to support the BJP.
Questions such as whether the Muslim community would consolidate its vote to one party and if Baig’s new political stand will help the BJP make Shivajinagar a cliffhanger to watch out for.
Gokak: The Battle of Two Brothers
In north Karnataka, all eyes are on Gokak and the two brothers pitted against each other.
The four brothers in the Jarkiholi family are a political powerhouse controlling the politics of Karnataka’s second large district – Belagavi. The eldest of the brothers, Ramesh, was the former MLA from Gokak. After winning on a Congress ticket, he was made a minister in the coalition government. However, when this post was taken away, he started a rebellion with the BJP’s help, which resulted in the coalition’s collapse.
His defection to the BJP has now divided the powerful Jarkiholi family. Ramesh’s youngest brother Lakhan, who was his campaign manager during the 2018 Assembly election, is fielded against him in the bypolls.
While Lakhan is the candidate, the campaign is run by the second brother in family Satish Jarkiholi, a Congress loyalist.
Satish is considered a strong strategist. When former chief minister Siddaramaiah contested from Badami in north Karnataka, a region he was not associated with, it was Satish who ensured Siddaramaiah’s victory. Satish, who had open spats with Ramesh since the latter changed camps, is running a strong campaign for Lakhan.
Meanwhile Ramesh has found support from his third brother, Bhimshi. Unlike his other three brothers Bhimshi has been a BJP man and he had even contested against Ramesh in the 2018 Assembly election. With the support from the BJP and riding on his popularity in the constituency, Ramesh is confident of a win as well.
The brothers come from the Valmiki community, which is a deciding vote bank in the constituency.
Both Ramesh and Satish are popular in the Valmiki community. With two strong opponents locking horns, the election in Gokak is expected to go to the wire.
Hoskote: Where an Independent Stands a Chance
MTB Nagaraj, one of the richest (Rs 1,200 crore assets) politicians in Karnataka, may not get to sit in Karnataka Assembly again in this term. The complex caste equations in this town bordering Bengaluru is pointing at a potential victory for an independent candidate.
The Hoskote constituency is dominated by three major communities - Muslims, Kurubas and Vokkaligas.
Disqualified MLA Nagaraj won the 2018 election depending heavily on the votes of the Kuruba and Muslim communities, a Congress vote bank. With his exit from the party, Muslim voters are expected to go against him and remain with the Congress.
Both the BJP and the Congress have fielded Kuruba candidates and according to local leaders Kuruba votes might get split between the two parties. This leaves the Vokkaliga votes as the decider and this brings the focus on Sharath Bachegowda.
Unhappy over his party giving ticket to ‘defector’, BJP leader Sharath Bachegowda filed nomination as an independent.
He was thrown out of the party for mutiny and since then Sharath is running campaign for Swabimana (self-esteem), which has been gaining popularity among the youth.
But his real advantage is the fact that he is a Vokkaliga. With the Kuruba and Muslim votes divided between the two parties, he stands a chance to win the bypoll on the Vokkaliga votes. To make his case stronger, the JD(S), which has large Vokkaliga following, has decided to support him in the bypoll.
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