There have been two big political casualties of the farmers' protest so far — the BJP in Punjab and Dushyant Chautala's Jannayak Janata Party in Haryana.
Whether the BJP's Jat base in Western Uttar Pradesh is the third, will be clear in about six months with the results of the Assembly elections in the state.
Let's stay with Dushyant Chautala for this piece. Chautala once again faced flak, following the police lathi-charge at protesting farmers at Karnal on Saturday, 28 August. One farmer died.
Chautala did promise action against Assistant District Magistrate Ayush Sinha, who was caught on video instructing the police to "smash the skulls" of protesters. However, his condemnation hasn't undone the damage to his own political credibility, which continues to fall even within his own party.
"Every lathi that has hit farmers will harm the political future of Dushyant Chautala," a dissatisfied JJP leader told The Quint.
Chief Minister Manohar Lal Khattar further harmed matters by defending the junior bureaucrat by saying that "the language may have been wrong but tough measures were required".
From Heir to Jannayak to a ‘Khalnayak’ for Farmers
Cut back to 2014, when a 26-year old Chautala had been elected to Parliament from Hisar on an INLD ticket. He was then the rising star of Jat politics. This became even more clear in the Assembly elections that followed that year, in which the INLD emerged as the second largest party and the Congress was reduced to third position. This was a blow to the Hoodas and a win for the Chautalas.
Though hailing from different parts of the state, the two families have been rivals in Haryana's Jat politics.
Even when the INLD split in 2018, Dushyant emerged even stronger as the president of the newly-found Jannayak Janata Party. The JJP emerged victorious in the intra-Chautala clan tussle, winning 10 seats in the 2019 Assembly elections in Haryana, as opposed to INLD's one. Dushyant became Deputy Chief Minister of the state.
Soon, the downfall began.
Less than a year later, the Narendra Modi-led government at the centre passed the controversial farm laws that sparked protests across Punjab, Haryana, Uttar Pradesh, and other parts of North India. Jatt Sikh and Hindu Jat farmers emerged as the main driving force of the protest.
As protesters from Punjab began marching to Delhi in the winter of 2020, they were helped by the farmers of Haryana. But the Haryana government unleashed tear gas and police force on them.
As farmers were attacked by the police, the sympathy for the protesting farmers kept increasing among Jats as did their condemnation of Dushyant Chautala's silence.
Chautala could have broken ties with the BJP over the farm laws like the Shiromani Akali Dal in Punjab and Hanuman Beniwal's Rashtriya Loktantrik Party in Rajasthan. But these two parties were both in the Opposition in their respective states. Chautala on the other hand, was enjoying the fruits of power in Haryana.
From the rising star of Jat politics, Chautala has now come to be seen as a "quisling" among Jat farmers.
From doing politics in the name of 'Jannayak' Devi Lal, Dushyant is now being seen as a 'Khalnayak' (villain) or at least the accomplice of a Khalnayak.
Rivals Like Hooda and Abhay Chautala Gaining Ground
The problem for Chautala is that the fall in his credibility is directly helping his rivals in the state.
Both the Congress and the INLD have been at the forefront of supporting the farmers protest in Haryana.
Two competitors of Chautala stand out in their support for farmers — Deepender Singh Hooda of the Congress and INLD's Abhay Chautala.
Hooda gave a strong response following the Karnal police action. He warned officials like Ayush Sinha that the BJP won't be in power forever and when the Congress comes back to power, it will hold such officials to account for attacking farmers.
Abhay Chautala, too, has been a contrast to Dushyant in the response he's getting from farmers. The protesting farmers even honoured Abhay Chautala in a function for resigning as an MLA in solidarity with them.
Question of Survival
All the parties in Haryana, have a clear plan in sight. Abhay Chautala knows that with Dushyant making a mistake by standing with BJP on the farm laws, the INLD has now become the main claimant for the political legacy of Devi Lal.
Similarly, the Hoodas too have strengthened their position as the main Opposition in Haryana and their main challenge now is to take complete control of the state Congress.
Even the BJP is unperturbed despite the protests. Its calculation is that like the Jat agitation in Khattar's first term, the farmers' protest will also help keep non-Jat voters loyal to the BJP as they would see it as the main bulwark against Jat domination in the state.
And if the BJP does need the support of Jats, it can always dump the JJP and go with the INLD.
The only political entity whose future is uncertain is Dushyant Chautala. This has created panic among JJP MLAs and the party rank and file. Many of them are finding it difficult to even step out in their own areas, leave alone carry out political work.
The JJP runs the risk of imploding even before Chautala completes his term as Deputy CM.
(At The Quint, we are answerable only to our audience. Play an active role in shaping our journalism by becoming a member. Because the truth is worth it.)