In the summer of 2012, while interviewing Narendra Modi, the then chief minister of Gujarat, I had asked him about the dwindling allies of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP).
I queried that, not only had the number of National Democratic Alliance (NDA) partners shrunk since 2004, when the alliance failed in its bid for re-election, several of its alliance partners – most famously Nitish Kumar – were personally antagonistic towards him.
I had posed this question before the United Progressive Alliance went into a tail-spin and building alliances was seen as essential to acquiring power.
Modi, back then, was far from being accepted as the party's electoral mascot. So, what did he propose to overcome this handicap?
Modi measured the question and seemingly ran over the response in his mind – possibly to assess if it sounded self-important and thereby, if it was best avoided. Once sure, he explained:
"When Atalji became prime minister for the first time in 1996 – we got no allies – Akali Dal and Shiv Sena had been with us earlier but not new allies. But in 1998, the situation changed – the party had been the same, the people had been the same, the leaders were the same – just because our seats increased, the allies also increased (laughs) – then when the seats got reduced – the allies got reduced. The issue, therefore, is that the number of allies will depend on the winnability of the BJP. If allies become confident that by associating with the BJP their chances will increase, they will get more seats – they will come and join BJP. But, if they think that BJP will become a burden and that we will be able to save a few seats by going at it alone, then they will not join hands with the BJP."
The Dwindling Show of Strength
Going by that logic, Rashtriya Lok Samta Party (RLSP) chief Upendra Kushwaha's decision to resign from the Union Cabinet and split with the NDA indicates that he does not think it is beneficial to remain part of Modi's bandwagon any further. Of the four erstwhile allies of the BJP in Bihar, Kushwaha is the second partner to part company.
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Earlier in February this yet, Hindustani Awami Morcha-Secular (HAM-S) president Jitan Ram Manjhi cut ties with the NDA and joined the Rashtriya Janata Dal-led Grand Alliance.
Modi and his supporters would like to believe that the two parties quitting the NDA were the smallest and, after Nitish Kumar's decision to sink his difference with Modi, the space for minor partners was limited.
Moreover, there has been a split in the RSLP with its Lok Sabha member from Jehanabad’s feud with Kushwaha since 2016. He intends on forming a party eventually and backs the BJP. The departure of the two parties is likely to be seen by short-sighted supporters of the BJP as an opportunity to free up seats, which can be distributed between remaining members of the NDA in the state: BJP, JD(U) and Ram Vilas Paswan's Lok Jan Shakti Party.
Seemingly minor developments involving smaller partners cannot be seen in isolation but must be weighed against the larger picture.
In contrast to 2014, when almost every party was willing to ally with Modi despite no reversal of his stance on the 2002 riots, a reverse process has started.
Kushwaha’s Move Has a Message for PM Modi
In politics, it is very important to connect the dots even if they do not appear to have any interconnection. Kushwaha's decision was announced a day before the results of the Assembly elections in five states.
It may be tantalising to conclude that the RSLP leader foresaw a poor showing by BJP and decided to act.
But, it would be wiser to conclude that according to him, Lok Sabha elections will not be influenced by this outcome.
This suggests that leaders like Kushwaha think that 2019 will witness an aggregate of state specific polls, at least in Bihar. Consequently, it makes little sense in staying with the NDA. His entry into the RJD-led alliance in state is possible soon.
Additionally, Kushwaha's decision must be assessed in the backdrop of decisions of Sushma Swaraj and Uma Bharti not to contest the next Lok Sabha polls. The two leaders cited health reasons, with the latter specifying an interest to pursue issues like cleaning of the Ganga river.
Yet, given their past relations with Modi, these announcements must also be seen as the beginning of efforts to distance themselves from the establishment.
In the coming weeks, the pressure will be on Modi not just to ensure that this process, of leaders drifting away from his dispensation, is halted but also reversed.
From the chutzpah he displayed in 2012, the prime minister and his small team of close aides should worry and find ways to prevent further desertions. Furthermore, he must find new allies to establish that his winnability remains as high as it once was.
(The writer is an author and journalist based in Delhi. He has authored the book ‘The Demolition: India at the Crossroads’ and ‘Narendra Modi: The Man, The Times’. He can be reached @NilanjanUdwin.)
(This is an opinion piece and the views expressed above are the author’s own. The Quint neither endorses nor is responsible for the same.)
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