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Yeh Dosti Hum Nahi Todenge…Todenge Dum Magar…Tera Saath Na Chodenge!
Trump and Modi sounded a lot like Jai and Veeru from Sholay. But please be warned. While Trump praised Sachin Tendulkar, Virat Kohli, praised Bollywood… and praised Modi’s personal journey from selling tea to Prime Minister. The script for Trump’s speech at the Motera stadium was not written in Bollywood. It was written in the White House, which means yes, Indo-US ‘dosti’ is growing, but woh jo line hai na that we hear at the end of every juicy business offer. For Indo-US relations to prosper, Terms and Conditions do apply.
And what are those Terms and Conditions? Most of the clues and indicators are in the speech Trump made at Ahmedabad’s Motera stadium–
1. 'Modi Ji.... I'M Your Friend, If You Buy From Me'
Let's understand that Trump is a business man and a US president who will be fighting for re-election soon. The US economy is doing well right now, and Trump wants it to remain like that, which is why he wants this ‘dosti’ with Modi and with India because India is a big market for things that the US makes.
What does that actually mean? It means - Modi ji… I am your friend if you buy from me. Trump wants those big multi-billion dollar defence deals from India. The more business Trump brings in for US corporations, the brighter his chances of being re-elected.
But Trump didn’t mention that American armaments are also expensive, which is why India still buys most of its arms from Russia, who also make pretty good stuff, pretty cheap. Can Modi ignore that and reduce business with Russia and buy more from the US? It will mean allowing India’s defence expenditure to soar. Can Modi do that just to keep Trump happy? Especially with the Indian economy already desperately short of spending money?
In his speech, Trump turned around and called Modi 'a tough negotiator'. It was a compliment, but it was also a friendly warning. Modiji, you will have to give some ground. If you don’t meet me halfway and the US doesn’t get business deals from India and if I lose the elections because of that then yeh dosti kis kam ki?
But what Modi also has to consider is the health of the Indian economy itself. Firstly, if he promises Trump that the great Indian market will buy American products, the question is will that happen? Why am I saying that? Because the purchasing power of India’s middle-class is at its lowest in many many years. And that has pushed Indian industry into a crisis also and that adds to Modi’s dilemma – one of the ways to revive Indian industry, and reverse the economic slowdown is to protect it from foreign competition.
But if Modi does that he would upset Trump and the US which actually want lower tariffs, lower duties to make American products cheaper in India. Modi ji, Trump flew 16,000 miles for you, returned your hug praised you out of the sky. He’s now waiting to see what can you do for him in return. So, Modiji, Trump is asking you to make a serious attempt at locating that missing man, Vikas. Vikas waapis laaiye, apni Trump ke saath dosti aur bhi mazboot kijiye!
2. 'Modi Ji.... I'm Nowhere Close to Saying 'Pakistan Murdabad'...'
Pakistan – Did Trump say enough on Pakistan to bring genuine cheer across the crowd at the Motera stadium? I would argue, not enough. Yes, he said that both, the US and India, are against radical Islamic terror and for the US, he described that as ISIS and for India, he called it terror at Pakistan’s borders. But did not directly blame the terror on the Pakistan government or on the Pakistan Army or on anyone else in Pakistan.
On Kashmir too, on the plus side for Modi. No mention of Kashmir, no mention of suspending democracy in the Valley. On the minus side – no endorsement of India’s abrogation of Article 370 or the suspension of democratic rights in Kashmir either. But while Trump, personally, may wink at it, a lot of leaders in the US across the political spectrum are critical of the situation in Kashmir, blaming the Modi government for it.
3. 'Modi Ji.... How Long Can I Ignore Explicit Hate Speeches by Your Colleagues?'
Which brings us to Point Number 3 from Trump’s speech – repeatedly, repeatedly, Trump underlined how India was the world’s biggest democracy, that the biggest thing the US and India had in common, was democracy. And he underlined India’s diversity and its tolerance and right there is the other gentle warning that Modiji must heed. India’s goodwill across the world, and especially in the US, has taken a big hit with our rapidly dropping benchmarks for religious tolerance.
While a Trump may be silent right now, can he continue to ignore the openly explicit hate speeches made by Modi’s colleagues? Also, for Modi himself to ponder on – what if Trump is not re-elected? Is Modi prepared to lose all the goodwill that he’s developed with the US via Obama, and even more via Trump because of the implicit intolerant nature of the CAA-NRC-NPR? Trump may not have spoken about it, but the rising level intolerance in Indian society and Indian politics are regular fodder for political satirists like John Oliver and others.
Yeh Jo India Hai Na… it would like to be a good friend of Donald Trump and Uncle Sam but just photo-ops at the Motera stadium and Sabarmati Ashram and at the Taj will not be enough. India will have to do a lot more to earn that BFF status.
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