After five phases of polling and nearly seven weeks of campaigning, the Jharkhand elections have finally come to an end.
According to the ABP-CVoter Exit Poll, the state is headed for a hung Assembly with the BJP emerging as the single largest party but the JMM-Congress-RJD alliance emerging as the single largest pre-poll formation.
If the final result does go this way, it would be a huge blow to the BJP as it would mean another setback after the loss of power in Maharashtra and a below par performance in the Assembly elections in Haryana.
Such a result would be significant in another way.
As the campaign progressed, several key events were happening in the background: The Supreme Court verdict on the Ayodhya dispute on 9 November, the passage of the Citizenship Amendment Act in December and the subsequent protests.
So if the BJP ends up falling short of a majority despite the Ayodhya verdict and the CAA, it would mean that the party couldn’t get much electoral benefit from these events.
According to the CVoter Exit Poll, the JMM-Congress-RJD alliance could win around 35 seats, with the BJP close behind at 32.
However, in terms of predicted vote share, the BJP at 37.3 percent has a three percentage point lead over the UPA at 34.2 percent.
This is not unexpected as it is possible that the BJP may be leading in cities with huge margins and trailing in rural seats with smaller margins.
However, this would be an increase in vote share for the BJP compared to 2014 when it got 31.3 percent votes. It now appears to be at a disadvantage due to the JMM and the Congress fighting together unlike separately last time on.
If the results go as predicted by CVoter, then the AJSU, JVM and Others could emerge as kingmakers. According to the survey, AJSU could win 5 seats, Babulal Marandi’s JVM 3 seats and others six.
The worrying part for the BJP is that according to the survey, 5 out of 6 among the ‘Others’ are potential allies for the Opposition. These include Left parties like CPI-ML and MCO, which are predicted to win two seats each, and NCP, which is predicted to win one.
So with the support of these parties, the JMM-Congress-RJD alliance could reach 40, just one short of the majority mark.
The BJP, on the other hand, would need the support of both the AJSU and the JVM.
If one goes community-wise, the CVoter survey indicates a major consolidation of Adivasi voters in favour of the JMM-Congress-RJD. The alliance has a 7.5 percentage point lead in this section.
However, the BJP has retained its lead among OBCs, upper caste Hindus and Dalits. Muslims, predictably, appear to have consolidated behind the UPA.
Within STs, the poll suggests a clear lead for the UPA among Santhals, the community of JMM chief Shibu Soren and the alliance's CM candidate Hemant Soren. The alliance also leads among Oraon, Mundas and Hos.
Within OBCs, Kurmi votes appear to have split three way between the BJP, the JMM-Congress alliance and Sudesh Mahto’s AJSU. Mahto is a Kurmi.
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