India can expect a healthy and robust monsoon this year, Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) said, provided that El Nino phenomenon doesn’t stir surprise for the subcontinent, reported Reuters.
According to a top official of IMD, a strong El Nino force has not been predicted so far. “It is really early to talk about the pattern that this year’s monsoon will follow, but we do know that practically no one is predicting a strong El Nino,” KJ Ramesh, Director General of IMD told Reuters.
Ramesh added that Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) phenomenon – defined by higher sea surface temperature in the Indian Ocean – can be a positive development. IOD had previously played a significant role by bringing adequate rains to India in 1967, 1977, 1997 and 2006.
Skymet Predicts Normal Monsoon for 2019
The forecast by IMD comes on the heels of prediction of normal monsoon this year by India’s weather forecasting agency.
Skymet, India’s only weather forecasting agency, had previously stated that India can expect a normal monsoon in 2019, adding that there is over a 50 percent chance that India will receive normal rainfall, with a small possibility of excessive rainfall.
The monsoon season delivers about 70 percent of India's annual rainfall and is key to the success of the farm sector in Asia's third-biggest economy. In 2018, India received 91 percent of rainfall during the season.
A strong El Nino phenomenon had resulted in consecutive floods in 2014 and 2015 for the fourth time in over a century, causing widespread agrarian crisis in the Indian subcontinent.
India had recorded 95 percent and 91 percent rainfall in 2017 and 2018 respectively.
(With inputs from Reuters)
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