COVID Reproductive Value Falls Below 1 in September

The R-value refers to how many people an infected person infects on average.

2 min read
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Researchers have found out that R-value or reproductive number for COVID-19 in India, which indicates the spread of the infection, has dropped from 1.17 in August to 0.92 in mid-September.

However, the R-value of some major cities has remained over 1. This includes Mumbai, Kolkata, Chennai, and Bengaluru. Meanwhile, the R-value of Delhi and Pune are below 1.

Notably, the R-values of Maharashtra and Kerala are below 1, giving a much needed relief to the two states with the highest number of active cases, news agency PTI reported.

At the end of August, the R-value was 1.17. It declined to 1.11 between 4-7 September and has remained under 1 since then.


Sitabhra Sinha of the Institute of Mathematical Sciences, Chennai, has been leading a team of researchers who calculate the R-value.

He was quoted as saying, “The good news is that India’s R-value has continued to be less than 1, as is that of Kerala and Maharashtra, the two states having the highest number of active cases”, PTI reported.

According to the data, the R-value of Mumbai stands at 1.09, Chennai at 1.11, Kolkata at 1.04, and Bengaluru at 1.06.

The R-value reveals how ‘efficiently’ a virus is spreading, by referring to how many people an infected person infects on average.

R-Value During the 2nd Wave

During the peak of the second wave, the R-value in the country was estimated to be 1.37 between 9 March to 21 April. It declined to 1.18 between 24 April to 1 May, and further dropped to 1.10 between 29 April to 7 May, PTI reported.

The R-value further declined to 0.98 between 9-11 May, and then 0.82 between 14 to 30 May. However, it increased to 0.88 from 20 June to 7 July.

Currently, the R-value slightly increased between 14-19 September to 0.92 from 0.86 between 11-15 September.

As per the Health Ministry, the recovery rate presently stands at 97.75 percent. The weekly positivity rate (2.08 percent) has been less than 3 percent for last 88 days.

(With inputs from PTI)

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Edited By :Padmashree Pande
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