Against the hopes of the Bhartiya Janata Party (BJP) and beyond the predictions of several analysts, the coalition between the Congress and Janata Dal Secular (JDS) has finished more than 6 months of joint governance in Karnataka.
Unless ruled otherwise, by astrologers of the Chief Minister HD Kumaraswamy, citing in inauspicious Shoonya Maasa, the coalition will see the next step in their alliance – the cabinet expansion – on 22 December.
However, the Congress’ decisive victory in the Assembly Elections in Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh is expected to alter the coalition equations in the state. The Congress, which in the early days of the alliance, was made to oblige to several demands of the JD(S), to ensure BJP is kept out of the power, is expected to be more aggressive in the coming days.
The cabinet expansion may not witness this changing dynamics, as out of the seven vacant portfolios, six are going to the Congress as per the coalition agreement. Instead, it will be the ticket distribution for the Lok Sabha elections that will show the effects of the Congress victory.
The Changing Dynamics
On 1 June, after the coalition coordination committee announced the portfolio allocations, came another announcement: The Congress and the JD(S) will contest Lok Sabha elections together. A pre-poll alliance was announced between both parties with the clause that the seat sharing will be announced later.
When the announcement was made, the Congress party was on the backfoot and was desperate to hold on to their last bastion from being painted saffron. The Congress made several concessions, especially in portfolio allocation, to keep the JD(S) happy.
But since the victory in the assembly polls the Congress has moved on from being on the backfoot to be a contender against the BJP at the centre. To retain this superiority, the Congress believes they should contest for more seats in the general election.
Congress to Demand Bigger Share
According to sources, during the initial negotiations, the JD(S) had demanded for 10 Lok Sabha tickets out of the 28 in the state. The Congress was opposed to this. And, the discussions didn’t go further.
Senior leaders in the Karnataka Congress believe that the new resurgent Congress party has a better chance of victory in the upcoming elections and they should get a bigger share of the seats. One of the arguments put forth by the leaders is the limited influence of the JD(S) outside the Old Mysore region.
Sources said that the party now wants to push for at least 22 seats in the state and JD(S) getting in 6 seats. “The JD(S)’ support is important, but the Congress is the dominant party in the coalition,” he said.
The leader, however, insisted that there will not be any change in the dynamics. He reiterated that coalition will finish the full term, amicably.
The Mahagatbandan Logic
But for the JD(S), the logic as to why the Congress needs them in the Lok Sabha election too comes from the recent Assembly polls. A senior JD(S) leader explained the scenario: “Firstly, the regional parties have shown their might in Telangana and Mizoram. They have proven that the elections are no longer between the Congress and the BJP only.”
He further added that the Congress will need to look at the larger picture, where in every state, joining hands with regional parties is the best shot for the Congress to defeat the BJP. “Even in MP and Rajasthan, despite their big jump in seats, it was the regional parties that helped them form the government,” he said.
According to the leader, a three-way split of votes between the Congress, BJP and JD(S) would affect the Congress more than the BJP.
“But it is wrong to assume there is any friction in the coalition. The leaders are in good terms, they believe in the goal of saving democracy and keeping communal forces away from power,” added the leader.
Despite the assurances of the both parties that their equations will not change, an aggressive and assertive Congress is expected to attend the coalition coordination in the future.
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