The Bharatiya Janata Party’s (BJP) landslide victory, winning 25 seats of 28, in the 2019 Lok Sabha polls is the largest victory margin in Karnataka since 1989. As eight Assembly segments constitute a parliamentary seat, a breakup of these 28 seats shows that out of the 224 Assembly segments in Karnataka, the BJP has taken lead in 170 of them.
However, since the BJP contested in only 27 seats, the BJP’s exact gains in Karnataka would 170 Assembly segments out of the 216.
BJP’s current strength in Karnataka assembly is 105 out of the 224 seat, eight short of number needed to form the government. But with the Assembly segment wise data giving BJP such massive leads, the saffron party’s hopes of getting another landslide victory, if fresh assembly elections are called, have increased.
Massive Losses for the Coalition
According to Election Commission data, the Congress and JD(S), which had won 79 and 37 seats in the Assembly polls of 2018, won only 35 and 12 Assembly segments in the parliamentary elections.
A closer look at the figure show that in 104 constituencies already held by the BJP, there were able to gain in 92% of the seat, while the coalition partners, were able to retain lead in only 32% of the exiting Assembly segments.
For the BJP it meant they gained 10 lakh new votes, while the coalition lost a massive 48 lakh votes in the 117 seats held by them.
Big Leaders Fail to Deliver
A big slap of the alliance’s face was the fact that even in the Assembly segments held the big leaders of the party the BJP gained votes, this includes Assembly segments represented by Siddaramaiah, Krishna Byregowda Satish Jarkiholi and HK Patil.
In Badami, represented by former chief minister Siddaramaiah and in Chamundeshwari, where he lost to JD(S) candidate in the Assembly elections, the BJP recorded leads.
In a big embarrassment to the JD(S) in their bastion Mandya, where all 8 Assembly segments were held by JD(S) MLAs, independent candidate supported by the BJP gained in 7 out of the 8 seats.
Potential Defectors Get Support
In what is alarming for the alliance, in the constituencies represented by Congress MLAs who had earlier threatened to defect from to the BJP, the saffron party gained leads.
In Gokak, a seat held by Congress MLA Ramesh Jarkhiholi who had publicly announced his intention to join the BJP, the BJP gained over 60,000 votes compared to 2018 assembly elections.
Similarly, in Athani and Kudligi, where their Congress MLAs Mahesh Kumathalli and B Nagendra too had threatened to quit, the BJP gained over 20,000 votes in each Assembly segment, giving an indication that the MLAs who defect to BJP have a good chance of getting re-elected.
While experts agree that the voting patterns for the Lok Sabha and Assembly seats are different, but landslide margins are clear indication of the BJP forming a government with majority in Karnataka, if fresh elections are called.
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