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We Are Entering the Age of Pandemics, Ashish Jha to Rahul Gandhi

We Are Entering the Age of Pandemics, Ashish Jha to Rahul Gandhi

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"India has many advantages, and one of them is very advanced and vibrant technology and biotech industry. When people bring up testing capacity - I am not convinced India could not do more testing that it does now," says Ashish Jha.

Just why isn't India testing more and where does India stand in its fight against COVID-19? These were some of the questions former Congress president Rahul Gandhi asked in his interview with Professor Ashish Jha, a global public health expert associated with Harvard Medical School.

Professor Jha also warned that the world was entering the 'age of pandemics.'

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Why Lockdowns

On lockdowns and their purpose versus the sociological impact, this is what Ashish Jha had to say.

"Reason for lockdown is to slow down the virus. We have a very susceptible population. On an average a virus affects 3 people. The way to stop the spread is either to separate the infected and the non infected, and the only way to do that is to test more. In the absence of that, you have to lock everything down."

He added that the lockdowns have severe economic and social impact, but what you need to do during lockdowns is to build up your healthcare capacity, strengthen your tracing and testing infrastructure along with healthcare infrastructure.

On psychological impact, the professor spoke about lockdown and the seriousness of that communication. "You are saying this is different and much more devastating."

Another important conversation point was that we have to stop thinking of the coronavirus pandemic as a few months problem.

"It is very important that we accept that this is a 12-18 month problem. We won’t be through this problem by July or November. This will be with us till 2021. If by then we have a vaccine ,we can begin to think about going back to the normal."

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India and the Testing Problem

On India's testing strategy, the professor spoke about localised models and aggressive testing policy in high risk areas. "You have to test anybody with any kind of symptom... and evolve a strategy for surveillance of high risk areas that are customised."

In his view, in high risk areas like hospitals, everyone should be tested, any patient in for any treatment should be tested.

On lack of testing in India, he said India has a very advanced tech and biotech industry. "When people bring up testing capacity - I am not convinced India could not do more testing that it does now. India has scaled up to 80-100,000 tests now. But I don’t know what prevents us from doing more. Why don't we test migrant l before getting on trains?"

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Age as India's Advantage

Prof Jha spoke about age being the biggest risk factor, and how India has an advantage over Western countries with its largely young population. But India's joint family systems can prove to be a problem.

"In India we have 3 generations of families living together. In New York, we saw how the elderly people who were not necessarily stepping out got infected by young people who brought in the disease to them."

He called out herd immunity argument as a terrible idea, saying that's inviting millions of deaths, even among the young population with co-morbidities.

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Hot Temperature, BCG Vaccine

The professor said that the evidence for BCG vaccine was at best circumstantial and he would not bank on it. "I am skeptical BCG will be an important mediator. The evidence is not enough to design a policy based on it."

On temperature, he said that while weather can make a difference, do we think it is enough to keep the virus under control? It may at best offer 20 percent benefit.

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On Vaccines and Pandemics

On Rahul Gandhi's question 'Vaccine kab aayegi?' the professor spoke about 3 potential vaccines, but for India specifically, the problem will be of having a plan to have 50 to 60 crore vaccines it will need to deal with the pandemic.

"We are entering the age of pandemics - this is not the last global pandemic we will see"

Prof Jha said we got lucky with H1N1, but we will see more pandemics going forward. He gave reasons like globalisation, a virus that gets started somewhere spreads quickly; environmental changes - led by economic changes - deforestation, encroachments into animal territory.

"Climate change will make things much worse. We are eating a lot more meat, there is more interaction between human and animals."

The important thing is to prepare. "I am confident we will have more pandemics. What this pandemic teaches us is how do we better prepare for next one."

(At The Quint, we are answerable only to our audience. Play an active role in shaping our journalism by becoming a member. Because the truth is worth it.)

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