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In Stats: Why Numbers Prove India Hold the Edge vs England in T20s

Statistician Arun Gopalakrishnan previews the first T20 between India and England through numbers.

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The final leg of England’s tour of India kicks off on Thursday when the three-match T20 series begins at Kanpur. England have had very little success so far in India. They lost the Test series 4-0 and then the three-match ODI series 2-1. The visitors will want to change the trend before finally heading home.

Trivia: The Green Park Stadium has been an international venue since 1952 and has played host to 22 Test matches and 14 ODIs so far. Thursday’s T20I will be the first international 20-over contest to be played there.
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The Rankings Game

India are ranked second in the ICC T20I rankings, while England are fifth. If England win the series, they have the chance to climb up the table and displace India from the second spot.

The visitors will believe they have the resources to get the better of India in this format. They will also feed on the memories of having done well in these conditions recently.

Roll back the calendar to ten months ago, when England cruised to the final of the ICC World T20 2016. In that competition, England lost only twice – on both occasions to eventual champions West Indies – once in their first match of the tournament and then in the summit-clash.

History too is in favour of England, for they have dominated India in the 20-over format. The Three Lions have a 5-3 win-loss record overall, which includes a 2-1 win-loss record in matches played in India.

Statistician Arun Gopalakrishnan previews the first T20 between India and England through numbers.
(Photo: Rhythum Seth/The Quint)
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India though will have their own positives to take off from. They set a new record for most wins by a team in a calendar year. India played 21 T20Is in 2016 and emerged victors in an unprecedented 15 matches. They whitewashed Australia in Australia, defeated Sri Lanka at home and Zimbabwe away, clinched the Asia Cup in Bangladesh, and finished as semi-finalists in the World T20.

Statistician Arun Gopalakrishnan previews the first T20 between India and England through numbers.
(Photo: Rhythum Seth/The Quint)

Starting Thursday, a new chapter begins in Indian cricket history. It will be the first time that Virat Kohli will lead an Indian T20 side onto the field. The 28-year old will become only the fifth cricketer to be bestowed with the honour of captaining the Indian T20 side.

Statistician Arun Gopalakrishnan previews the first T20 between India and England through numbers.
(Photo: Rhythum Seth/The Quint)
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The Indian team that will take the field on Thursday afternoon will miss quite a few of their first-choice players; at least five players who played in the last T20I – against West Indies in August 2016 – will be missing from the line-up.

India (probable XI): Mandeep Singh, KL Rahul, Virat Kohli, Suresh Raina, Yuvraj Singh, MS Dhoni, Hardik Pandya, Amit Mishra, Yuzvendra Chahal, Ashish Nehra, Jasprit Bumrah.

In this context, India will look towards their captain to score the bulk of the runs. Virat Kohli was in sensational form with the bat in 2016 – generally across all formats, but particularly in the 20-over format. He appears to have carried his form into this year as well, and the team will hope he can continue to pile on the runs in the coming three matches.

Statistician Arun Gopalakrishnan previews the first T20 between India and England through numbers.
(Photo: Rhythum Seth/The Quint)
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Suresh Raina and Yuvraj Singh have been picked in the squad and it is expected that both left-handers will slot straight into the middle order. Apart from the experience they bring to the side and their ability to win matches with the bat, they also provide the captain additional spin bowling options.

On the bowling front, India will miss the services of Ravichandran Ashwin, who along with Ravindra Jadeja has been rested. Jasprit Bumrah, who last year set a new record for most wickets taken in T20Is in a year, along with the returning Ashish Nehra, will be expected to cause damage at the top and during the death overs.

Pitches in Kanpur have generally known to assist spin, and therefore one could expect to see both leg-spinners – Amit Mishra and Yuzvendra Chahal – find a place in the eleven.

Statistician Arun Gopalakrishnan previews the first T20 between India and England through numbers.
(Photo: Rhythum Seth/The Quint)
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England have packed their squad with allrounders. But it is expected that they will go in with four quick-bowling options and bank on Adil Rashid and Moeen Ali to bowl spin. There could be the odd change to the eleven that competed in the 3rd ODI in Kolkata. Alex Hales could find a place in the eleven at the expense of Sam Billings, while Jake Ball could miss out too.

England (probable XI): Sam Billings, Jason Roy, Joe Root, Jos Buttler, Eoin Morgan, Ben Stokes, Moeen Ali, Adil Rashid, Chris Jordan, Liam Plunkett, Tymal Mills.

The first T20I begins at 4:30pm and you can follow updates from the match in our live blog.

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