How K’Taka Parties Tailor-Make Strategies for 6 Political Regions

A single strategy won’t help any party achieve this goal as different issues affect various regions of the state.

For a majority in Karntaka’s Assembly, a party has to cross the magic number of 113 seats. A single strategy for the entire state will not help any party achieve this goal as issues that affect the voters are different in various regions of the state.

Hindutva, for example, could be a big decider in Coastal Karnataka, but it has little effect in the Old Mysuru Region. The fate of a Bengaluru MLA can change because he was caught in a corruption case, but in some parts of state, regardless of his corrupt record, he would win because he represents a particular community.

Politically, Karnataka can be divided into six regions – Bengaluru, Old Mysuru, Coastal Karnataka, Bombay Karnataka, Central Karnataka and Hyderabad Karnataka. Each region has distinct political characteristics and all political parties have specific plans for each region.

The parties in Karnataka, well aware of these factors, have been creating strategies specific to the regions.

Bengaluru Region: The Odd One Out

Seat Share: 28/224

Bengaluru City is considered a separate region not only because it holds 28 seats, but also because of its distinct voting pattern. A voter in Bengaluru is influenced more by civic issues, developmental works and party affiliations than the caste equations, which dominates the rest of the state.

The region, which holds close to 12 percent of the state assembly seats, saw a close competition in the 2013 Assembly elections. While the Congress won 13 out of the 28 seats, the BJP managed victory in only 12 seats.

But in 2018, the situation may not be the same. Although the Congress claims it has kept anti-incumbency feelings at bay with its pro-people schemes, in Bengaluru, it is not the case.

The incumbent government’s failure to check urban flooding, maintain quality of roads, several alleged cases of corruption in infrastructure development, and issues regarding public safety threaten to work against the Congress in the upcoming elections.

Despite these factors, the BJP, which traditionally enjoyed an upper hand in Bengaluru, has failed to come up with a strong campaign outlining these the anti-incumbency feelings.

However, in the months ahead of the election, a sitting Congress MLA’s son getting caught for brutally attacking a youngster in a coffee shop and another Congress worker’s arrest for trying to set a government office room on fire, gave the BJP’s campaign the much needed momentum.

The Congress, however, pins its hopes on the urban poor, constituting a large vote bank, with popular schemes such Indira Canteens which provides food at low costs. The Congress has also used the ‘Kannada Pride’ card successfully among urban Kannadigas to counter the Modi wave. Removal of the Hindi sign boards from metro stations, creating a separate flag for the state and victory in Cauvery river water sharing dispute definitely gives Congress a boost in this region.

Coastal Karnataka Region: The Hotbed for Hindutva Politics

Seat Share: 19/224

The only region in Karnataka where Hindutva remains the biggest political issue and decider, Coastal Karnataka is the BJP’s stronghold. The faces of BJP’s Hindutva ideology, Anant Kumar Hegde, Shobha Karndlaje and even UP Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath, have been on an overdrive with the Hindutva politics in this communally sensitive region in the recent months.

Their aim – to change the party’s scorecard in the Coast. In this region, consisting of Uttara Kannada, Dakhina Kannada and Udupi districts, Congress won 13 of the 19 seats in the 2013 election.

Ground reports suggest that BJP’s success in painting Siddaramaiah as anti-Hindu has put the party in a strong position to win the region back.

The deaths of the BJP-RSS workers, Congress government’s minority appeasement policies and demand for a ban on cow slaughter have been some of the major issues that the BJP has raised here.

The Congress, on the other hand, hopes for a victory in the region by riding on the popularity of some of its local leaders.

Bombay Karnataka Region: The Lingayat Heartland

Seat share: 50/224

Lingayat vote bank is synonymous with the electorate in the Bombay Karnataka region. With 50 seats in the offering, the region will decide whether Siddaramaiah’s gamble with the new Lingayat religion will work or will Yeddyurappa remain the tall Lingayat leader his party claims him to be.

In the region comprising Belgavi, Hubbali-Dharwad, Gadag, Bagalkote and Vijapura districts, the fight is largely between the Congress and BJP. The JD(S) has little presence here.

In the 2004 and 2008 elections, BJP ruled the region under the leadership of Yeddyurappa. However, in the 2013 election, Congress won 31 seats from the Bombay Karnataka region.

Congress’ victory in 2013 was attributed to the split in the BJP during 2013, where Yeddyurappa rebelled and formed the Karnataka Janata Party (KJP), dividing the Lingayat votes between the BJP and the KJP.

Congress, however, is trying to retain its lead by dividing the Lingayat votes once again. The Congress hopes that the recommendation for a new Lingayat religion will provide a similar effect as the BJP-KJP split in 2013.

The popularity enjoyed by Yeddyurappa in this region remains the BJP’s advantage. However, a recent blunder by the leader in the Mahadayi river dispute issue might become a headache for the party. Most of the districts in this region depend on the Mahadayi river, which is shared between Karnataka and Goa, for the drinking water and irrigation needs.

Earlier this year, Yeddyurappa tried to broker a deal with the BJP-led government in Goa to resolve the issue, however, his plan backfired after the Goa government declined to share water. The Congress is using this issue against Yeddyurappa to appeal to the voters in the region.

Hyderabad Karnataka Region: An Underdeveloped Decider

Seat share 40/224

This region bordering Andhra Pradesh is one of the most underdeveloped regions of the state. Dominated by the Scheduled Castes (SC), Scheduled Tribes (ST) and Muslim voters, this region also has a considerable Lingayat vote bank.

The Hyderabad Karnataka region consists of Kalburgi, Yadgir, Raichur, Koppal and Ballari districts. In the 2013 election, Congress won 23 of the 40 seats in the region.

The Congress is hopeful of sweeping the region because of the developmental work done by Government, and the influence that seniors leaders like Mallikarjun Kharge have on the region.

It was only in 2008 that Congress lost this region. However, this loss was attributed to the influence of Reddy brothers, who controlled the mining business in the region. However, with the influence of Reddy brother curtailed after the Lokayukta crackdown of illegal mining, the Congress is confident of a win.

One of the biggest advantage the Congress has is providing the region recognition under section 371(J) of the Constitution. Under Article 371(J), 70 percent of the seats in Medical, Dental, Engineering colleges, that are part of Hyderabad-Karnataka region, are reserved for local students.

Almost 75-85 percent of the jobs in this region are reserved for local candidates. A separate board, along with Rs 2,500 crore, have been provided for the development of the Hyderabad-Karnataka region.

While Congress is driving its campaign on development, the BJP is trying to field strong local leaders against the Congress.

Old Mysore Region: The Battle Between AHINDA and Vokkaligas

Seat Share 61/224

As you reach the Old Mysuru region, which consists of areas that came under the erstwhile Mysuru kingdom, political equations change, and an old rivalry between Siddaramaiah and former Prime Minister HD Deve Gowda takes the centre stage.

The BJP has limited influence in this region, and the contest is between the JD(S) and the Congress. In the 2013 election, out of the 61 seats in the region, the Congress won 27 seats, JD(S) won 25 seats and the BJP won four seats.

The battle will also be between two prominent vote banks. The Congress depends heavily on the AHINDA vote bank (Kannada acronym for minorities, backward classes and Dalits), but the JD(S) gets the backing of the large Vokkaliga community in the region. Ground reports suggest that over the past few years, the Vokkaligas have been consolidating themselves against Siddaramaiah’s AHINDA vote bank.

Although the BJP is yet to make a big impact in the region, one of the most interesting electoral battles will be between the first sons of the Congress and the BJP. In Varuna constituency in Mysuru, Siddaramaiah’s son Yathindra and Yeddyurappa’s son Vijayendra are expected to face off.

The Old Mysore region consists of Mandya, Mysuru, Chamarajnagar, Ramanagaram, Hassan, Kolar, Tumkuru, Kodagu, Chikkabalapur and Bengaluru rural districts.

Central Karnataka Region: The Land of Mutts and Seers

Seat Share 26/224

The Central Karnataka is another region that will see a fierce campaign from all the three parties. Districts of Chitradurga, Davangere, Chikkamagaluru and Shivamoga form 26 seats in the Karnataka assembly.

In the 2013 elections, Congress won 15 out of the 26 seats, followed by JD(S) with six seats. The BJP managed only three seats in central Karnataka in 2013. However, in the 2008 elections, the Congress and the BJP won 13 seats each.

In Davangere district, the Lingayat community is the decider, while in Chitradurga, the religious mutts play an important role in the elections.

Shivamoga and Chikkamangaluru, although part of the Central Karnataka region, share some characteristics with the Coastal region as Hindutva plays an important role in this region.

Shivamoga is also the home district of BJP’s Yeddyurappa.

The Congress Pins Its Hopes on Siddaramaiah's Leadership

The incumbent Congress government, despite the occasional setbacks, has maintained the momentum in its campaign, and hopes to win over 120 seats like 2013.

The biggest strength for the Congress has been the leadership of Chief Minister Siddaramaiah. He has single-handedly steered the party to a good position across state and remains the face of the party.

Over the years, he has emerged as a regional leader who is not dependent on the central high command for the party’s strategies. He also remains the strong leader of the minorities and Dalit community. And most importantly, he has managed to keep his five-year term without many controversies.

Siddaramaiah has been banking on schemes like Annabhagya (free distribution of rice), Ksheeradhare (subsidy for milk), Vidyasiri (hostel facilities for students), Indira Canteen providing low cost food, interest-free loans for farmers etc, to woo the voters.

In addition, to counter the Modi effect in the state, Siddaramaiah has kept the “Kannada pride” alive. From the removal of Hindi signage from Metro stations, announcing a new flag for the state, and asking for a better share, from Karnataka’s contribution, from the taxes paid to the center, he has emphasised on a regional narrative to counter Modi.

The Central Leadership-Driven BJP

The BJP’s campaign in the state focuses on three popular issues – development, corruption and Hindutva. The BJP’s failure to make promises of development so far, and Yeddyurappa’s past as a corrupt leader have restricted the party from leading an effective campaign using the first two issues.

However, the Hindutva card has helped the party in getting a strong base in Coastal Karnataka region. The BJP has also been able to brand Siddaramaiah as anti-Hindu, affecting the vote bank of the upper caste Hindus in the state. However, the effects of Hindutva, so far, has been limited to Coastal Karnataka region.

Projecting Lingayat strongman BS Yeddyurappa as the Chief Ministerial candidate has been one of the smartest plays by his party. It not only sent across a message that the BJP was not divided, unlike in 2013, but also appealed to the large Lingayat voters in the state.

However, the party’s campaign in the state has been largely oriented towards central leadership. Unlike the Congress, the campaign is steered by BJP national president Amit Shah, and they heavily depend on Modi’s charisma to appeal to the voters.

JD(S) – the Kingmaker

Although dubbed as the kingmaker because of their record as the third largest party, JD(S) hopes to increase their vote share in the upcoming election. The party has fielded candidates in all regions of the state, but Old Mysuru and Central Karnataka regions remain their area of influence.

The plus point for the JD(S) is the popularity of its tall leaders – HD Deve Gowda and HD Kumaraswamy. However, the party lacks a second layer of leadership that can provide the party with a strong ground level campaign.

Ten of its MLAs defecting recently has come as a setback for the JD(S), but with new alliances, the JD(S) hopes to make up for the loss. One of their prominent alliances has been with the Bahujan Samajwadi Party (BSP). There were at least 10 seats where the JD(S) lost by a margin of less than 5,000 votes. In these constituencies, the BSP had enough votes to make up for the margin of loss of the JD(S).