Electoral arithmetic should be done based on the dos and don’ts which exist on the ground and not by preferences that leaders make either sitting in Bhubaneswar or Delhi. Such faux pas can be damaging, as proven in the past across many parties.
As far as western Odisha is concerned, going by what the trends in the past or the indications in very recent times show, the Bharatiya Janata Party was poised to offer a stiff fight to rivals. Some trends in the last by-poll in Bijepur had also revealed the under-current in BJP’s favour, which had polled a good percentage in Bijepur despite the party losing the election.
It may not be a prediction but feedback from the areas in question do create an impression that BJP has severely faulted in its calculations as far as choice of candidates in some Lok Sabha seats is considered.
The most discussed flip-flop noticed, to begin with, is the prominent Lok Sabha seat of Sambalpur. Here the party has gone in favour of Nitesh Gangadeb as its Lok Sabha candidate, who has his original base in Deogarh. Apprehensions are that the Sambalpur seat is being handed over to the rivals, mainly the BJD, as Gangadeb may not break through the maze of Sambalpur politics to snatch a victory.
Notwithstanding the past defeats faced by Suresh Pujari in Sambalpur, Pujari is somehow identified by Sambalpur and given the wave of Modi that had started to have a presence in this region, the party would have been wise to re-field Pujari there rather than pushing him to Bargarh where Pujari’s chances are doubtful in the absence of his hold at the grass-roots. Although Pujari is not an alien entity for Bargarh, electoral politics goes by the chemistry of the masses and not merely by lingual or regional allegiance.
What may potentially damage Pujari’s prospect is the grave miscalculation done by BJP by denying Subash Chauhan a second chance from Bargarh Lok Sabha. Chauhan, in his debut from Bargarh Lok sabha had braved the ruling party blitzkrieg and polled over 3,72,000 votes. It goes without saying that, Chauhan who recently joined the BJD, would now galvanize the cadres in the Assembly segments, which he had assiduously nurtured in last five years, in favour of the BJD.
The other exception visible and politically incorrect also, is the candidature of Bhrugu Buxipatra for Berhampur. It seems the BJP think-tanks have either given a short-shrift to any prospects in Berhampur or they have just made Buxipatra a scapegoat.
Buxipatras' forte is the Koraput district and Bhrugu’s late father Harish Ch Buxipatra, who was a cabinet minister in Janata Dal ministry under Biju Patnaik , was a MLA from Jeypore more than once and was an extremely popular figure in South Odisha. But his son’s emergence in Berhampur as Lok Sabha candidate could be an uphill task for him to snatch a victory from the rivals.
Political observers wonder what made BJP leadership to genuflect before the demand of Basant Panda, as the candidate in Kalahandi where Panda, a man from Nuapada, never enjoys any popular mass appeal in Kalahandi.
Inadvertently or otherwise there is an impression within the party circles that the BJP leadership has committed a few miscalculations that may prove counterproductive in Western and parts of South Odisha.
(Published in an arrangement with The Samikhsya)
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