Why Trump’s Reasons to Exit the Paris Climate Accord Fall Flat

Trump said the Paris agreement favoured China & India at the expense of American jobs.

President Trump said US would enter the agreement again only if the terms are renegotiated to suit their needs. (Photo: AP)

With one of the main reasons being the fulfillment of a campaign promise, the president of the United States of America, Donald J Trump, has invited widespread criticism by withdrawing the US from the Paris Climate accord.

The decision is being condemned by major environmental campaigners, his political predecessors and opponents, and by CEO’s of some of the largest US-based companies.

President Trump argued that the Paris Agreement favoured the rest of the world, mainly China and India, at the expense of the US. He accused the agreement of being less focused on climate change and more of a way for other countries to gain financial advantage over the US.

Trump: Paris Accord Would Result in Loss of 2.7 Million US Jobs by 2025

Quoting the study by National Economic Research Associates, he asserted that the compliance with the Paris Accord would result in the loss of 2.7 million jobs in the US by 2025.

Additionally, he said that the compliance to the commitments under the agreement would lead to a production fall in sectors like coal, iron, steel, and cement, costing the US trillions of dollars of loss in GDP, millions of lost jobs, and a drastic fall in the household income.

He also said that the US would enter the agreement again only if the terms are renegotiated to suit their needs.

However, the arguments supporting Trump’s decision seem to be flawed. For starters, the leaders of France, Germany, and Italy have issued a joint statement stating that the terms of the agreement cannot be renegotiated, branding the agreement as a vital instrument for the planet, societies, and economies.

Also Read: How Will Trump’s Withdrawal From The Paris Accord Affect India?

US Vowed to Reduce Emissions, but Without Any Limit

Trump’s argument of Paris Agreement restricting the US from using the available energy resources, while allowing China and India to continue and even expand their respective usage, also falls flat.

First, projections by the US Department of Energy point out that given the regulations, the energy production will continue to grow till 2040. Second, the Agreement doesn’t bar any of the participants from doing anything.

The non-binding agreement allows countries to map out their own, personalized plans for reducing emissions that cause climate change. The accord carries no penalties if nations miss their targeted carbon emission reductions or decide not to comply.

The US vowed to reduce its emissions by at least 26 percent below 2005 levels by 2025, prompting it to use less coal, but without any specific limit.

Under China's plan, their emissions would peak in 2030 – recent analysis shows that they may have already peaked – after which a fifth of its energy would come from carbon-free sources.

Also Read: Will US Withdrawal Stop India’s Actions Against Climate Change? No

Statistics on Trump's Argument

The statistics supporting Trump’s argument comes from the study on the economic impacts of greenhouse gas regulations prepared for the American Council for Capital Formation, a conservative think tank whose board includes prominent Republicans and representatives from industry trade groups.

The report fails to take into account the potential benefits from emission reductions or future technology that could influence costs over the long term.

The claim that the combined efforts of all the participants “would only produce a two-tenths of one degree Celsius reduction in global temperature by 2100” has been refuted by the findings of Climate Scoreboard, a collaboration of Climate Interactive with the MIT Sloan School of Management System Dynamics Group.

They point out that full implementation of current Paris pledges plus all announced mid-century strategies would reduce expected warming by 2100 to 3.3°C, a difference of 0.9°C. They also point out that if nations increase their ambition and set future pledges, then the positive impact would be even larger.

Also Read: Trumpexit Could Be Good News for India as Modi Meets Macron

Importance of the Paris Agreement

A different perspective of the importance of the Paris Agreement has been put forward in a peace proposal by Dr. Daisaku Ikeda, the president of Soka Gakkai International.

Dr. Ikeda asserts that the participants came together to confront the common threat of climate change in a way that was earlier thought to be impossible. This reorientation was only possible because all the participating countries held the shared awareness that the climate change is an urgent issue plaguing all the nations.

The Paris Agreement thus stands out as an example of how solidarity, a sense of purpose, and shared awareness about a particular problem, expedites the process of finding an all-encompassing solution.

After US Exits Paris Agreement, What Next?

The recent development by the US brings forth the glaring reality that most of our actions are primarily driven by the maximisation of our own interest and goals –– something in sync with the market based economic rationality.

When such a tenet becomes the basis of all the decisions, minimal consideration is given to the desires and well-being of people living in the society. The indifferent attitude towards the effect of the actions unleashes a psychology that is ready to extract the most extreme sacrifices from others.

This decision, focusing on numerical outcomes, serves as an example of how the root causes, adequate attention to the needs of the people, and the bigger problems plaguing the societies are neglected in the pursuit of maximisation of personal gains.

Despite the withdrawal, US carbon will continue to drop primarily because US energy production are now powered more by gas than by coal.

However, with the withdrawal, US now accompanies Syria and Nicaragua as the third nation to not be a part of the Paris Climate accord.

Trump has started a lengthy process of exit that would not conclude by November 2020 – the same month he would be up for re-election. All eyes are now on what efforts, if any, the US would adopt towards tackling climate change on its own terms.

With China and India reconfirming their commitment to meet the targets, the decisions by the remaining participants would also be of utmost importance.

The move has ensured that the climate issue would, for once, become a major topic of debate in the next presidential contest.

Sources:

• Paris climate agreement: World reacts as Trump pulls out of global accord – as it happened
• Response to White House Talking Points on Paris Agreement
• Fact-checking the energy claims in Trump's Paris Agreement speech
• Donald Trump confirms withdrawal from Paris Agreement on climate change in huge blow for global deal
• READ: Trump's speech announcing withdrawal from the Paris Agreement on climate change

(The author is a post-graduate in economics from the University of Warwick, United Kingdom, and is currently working with Grail Research as an analyst. This is a personal blog and the views expressed above are the author's own. The Quint neither endorses nor is responsible for the same.)