What Is Mayawati’s Game Plan After SP-BSP Break-up?

Will the BSP be able to continue with its old ‘caste-based’ formula? Neeraj Gupta explains.

BSP supremo Mayawati has announced that she has severed all ties with the Samajwadi Party. 

Photo: The Quint

Video Editor: Mohd Irshad Alam, Mohd Ibrahim

Sar jhhukaoge to patthar devta ho jaayga

itna mat chaaho use, wo bewafa ho jaayga

Samajwadi Party chief Akhilesh Yadav must be remembering Bashir Badr for this couplet. Not in reference to romance, but to politics. The kind of politics that drives people to try and grab an opportunity, but end up losing what they have in the process.

BSP-SP Break-up

BSP supremo Mayawati has announced that she has severed all ties with the Samajwadi Party.

The BSP will fight all the upcoming by-elections by itself. This makes the famed gathbandhan the strangest alliance in Indian politics so far, and the break-up the most dramatic one.

This means that UP has been divided into Jatav, Yadav, Dalit, Backward Dalit, Muslim, Jat, Brahmin, and Rajput. Other religious and ethnic categories will find themselves at a political crossroad where the fight isn't two or three-sided, but where multiple forces are battling it out with each other.

On 12 January 2019 Mayawati and Akhilesh Yadav announced in a joint conference held in Lucknow that not only will they fight 2019 Lok Sabha polls in alliance but will also partner for the UP Assembly elections of 2022. Ajit Singh’s Rashtriya Lok Dal was also a part of this gathbandhan.

Gathbandhan vs BJP

It looked like a strong alliance that could have given the BJP a tough fight, with its Jatav, Yadav, Jat and Muslim vote base.

19 April 2019 was a day to remember. Mayawati shared a stage with Mulayam Singh in Mainpuri. Mulayam was clapping, Akhilesh was beaming, excited party workers were shrieking. And Mayawati was canvassing for Mulayam Singh in the elections.

2 June 1995, Lucknow Guest House case

Those who know about the scandal were taken aback. Did Mayawati let go of every grudge she had against the SP for national interest? But then came 23 May 2019, the gathbandhan of bua-bhateeja (aunt-nephew)  which was dubbed as the game-changer in the 2019 Lok-Sabha elections was eventually destroyed by the Modi wave.

The BJP won 62 seats and the BSP 10. And the SP, just 5. The BJP lost 9 seats from 2014, but its vote share increased from 42.63% to 49.6% in 2019.

The Magic of 1993 Didn’t Work in 2019

The Samajwadi Party and the BSP failed to recreate  the magic of the 1993 slogan – 'Miley Mulayam-Kanshi Ram, hawa mein udd gaye Jai-Shree Ram' – in 2019. Mayawati announced on 3 June 2019 that the BSP will fight all the 11 upcoming by-elections in the UP alone.  However, she clearly stated:

“The Samajwadi Party could not even win the Yadav votes in the Assembly elections. Keeping the present political situation in mind, we are forced to contest the upcoming elections alone. However, it’s not a break-up.”

Mayawati, BSP Chief

Political pundits felt that although this is Mayawati's clear exit from the gathbandhan, there is still a distinct possibility of an alliance in future.

But on 24 June, Mayawati put an end to that speculation too. A relationship that was severed so bitterly doesn't give hope for any patch-up.

Dalit-Muslim-Brahmin Politics

In the political alleys of Lucknow, rumour has it that Mayawati will adopt her earlier formula of using ‘Dalit-Muslim-Brahmin’ in her politics, which helped her form the government in 2007 in Uttar Pradesh.

Demographic Equations in Uttar Pradesh:

Dalit: 21%

Muslim: 19%

Brahmin: 11%

Mayawati wants to make her nephew her successor in a bid to also attract the youth of the UP. But the results of 2019 have clearly showed that the BJP has already won over the non-Yadav voters of SP and non-Jatav voters of BSP.

The BJP used its sophisticated machinery of campaigning instead of the traditional ways to reach the voters. Given this, it's difficult to say that 'the Elephant' of the BSP will be able to build on the foundation of its old 'caste-based' formula.

Watch the video for more.