From Delhi to Tamil Nadu, How Accurate Have Past Exit Polls Been?
Here’s a quick roundup of how accurate (or inaccurate) exit polls have been in past Assembly elections.
The results for the Assembly elections in Uttar Pradesh, Punjab, Uttarakhand, Manipur and Goa, will be declared on 11 March.
Several news agencies, like Axis and CVoter, have released exit polls on 9 March in keeping with the Election Commission’s regulations.
Here’s what the difference has been between exit polls and the final results in the eight assembly elections in the past three years:
1. Tamil Nadu Assembly Elections, 2016
Exit Polls Proven Wrong as Amma Comes to Power: Exit polls had predicted defeat for the AIADMK. The Chanakya survey speculated victory for the DMK and gave the party 140 seats while the AIADMK was expected to secure 90 seats. However, the results turned out to be quite different.
ABP News predicted 132 seats being secured by the DMK and 95 seats by the AIADMK. Contrary to all of these speculations, Jayalalithaa formed the government after winning 134 seats.
2. West Bengal Assembly Elections, 2016
Exit Polls Speculations Almost Accurate About Didi’s Victory: West Bengal elections saw the victory of Mamata Banerjee’s Trinamool Congress with 211 seats out of a total of 294.
The India Today-Axis survey had given 243 seats to the TMC, while the Chanakya survey had given 14 seats to the BJP. The latter managed to secure only three seats in the end.
3. Bihar Assembly Elections, 2015
Nitish, Lalu Proved Exit Polls Wrong in Bihar: The Bihar elections were a special case in terms of exit polls. The survey channels and agencies were divided in their opinions. While some saw the RJD, the JD(U) and the Congress coalition coming to power, the others were sure of a BJP victory.
The Nitish-Lalu coalition surprised everyone by securing 178 seats, an outcome no one had predicted.
4. Delhi Assembly Elections, 2015
AAP Wave Washed Away Exit Polls Predictions: Exit polls had predicted about 35-45 seats for the Aam Aadmi Party in the Delhi Assembly elections. However, the India News-Axis survey had given the party about 53 seats.
The election results ushered in a historic win for the AAP, which won 67 seats out of a total of 70.
5. Jharkhand Assembly Elections, 2014
Exit Polls Proven Right as BJP Formed Govt: Most exit polls predicted a win for the BJP, which coincided with the results. CVoter had given the BJP coalition 37-45 seats while Today’s Chanakya had given it 61 seats.
6. Jammu-Kashmir Assembly Elections, 2014
Exit Polls Speculation Consistent With Outcome: The exit polls speculated that no one would win a majority in the Jammu and Kashmir polls.
The results were consistent with the exit polls. The BJP-PDP coalition formed the government in an unexpected turn of events.
7. Haryana Assembly Elections, 2014
Exit Polls Prediction Proven Right Again: The channel and agency surveys predicted a win for the BJP in the Haryana assembly elections. News 24-Chanakya gave 52 seats to the BJP, while ABP News-Nielsen gave it 46.
The BJP secured 47 seats. The state currently has a BJP government with Manohar Lal Khattar as the Chief Minister.
8. Maharashtra Assembly Elections, 2014
Exit Polls and Final Results Consistent Once Again: The BJP secured 122 seats, with News 24-Chanakya exit polls having predicted 151 seats for the party. The ABP News-Nielsen had predicted that it would win 127.
(This story was originally published on QuintHindi. It has been translated to English by Rosheena Zehra.)
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