Wimbledon 2025: Upsets, Chaos, Giant-Killings — Making Sense of the Madness

For many reasons, Wimbledon 2025 has been bizarre. As chaos reigns, we try to find what caused the anarchy.

Wimbledon 2025: Making sense of the madness.

(Photo: Wimbledon/X)

Upsets, in any sport, are treasured. They carry the seductive charm of the underdog narrative, and are even more compelling in individual sports like tennis, where you are all by yourself, at the mercy of nothing but pure talent.

Yet, at the 2025 Wimbledon, the seductive romanticism attained levels of outright chaos. The first round saw as many as eight of the top 10 seeds across men’s and women’s singles falling out, including the likes of Alexander Zverev, Holger Rune, Zheng Qinwen and Jessica Pegula. A clear statistical anomaly.

Notably, Coco Gauff, who had won the Roland Garros not very long ago, crashed out to Ukraine’s Dayana Yastremska. It was the only third instance of a French Open champion to bow out in the first round of Wimbledon, but an even bigger upset could have taken place in the men’s competition. Gauff's Roland Garros final opponent Aryna Sabalenka — the number 1 — was defeated by Amanda Anisimova in the semi-final.

Fabio Fognini, a 38-year-old player from Italy whose best ever singles result in a Grand Slam was a quarter-final appearance in French Open 11 years ago, nearly defeated defending champion Carlos Alcaraz. Jannik Sinner, the top seed, barely escaped an inspired Grigor Dimitrov before an untimely injury robbed the Bulgarian of a giant-killing moment.

A Statistical Anomaly

Now, amid the chaos and anarchy, a sense of order has been restored ahead of the semi-finals, which will feature four of the top five — Sinner taking on Novak Djokovic, and Alcaraz facing Taylor Fritz.

But the road to this stage has not been devoid of surprised. In the first couple of rounds, 37 of the 64 seeded players were eliminated, leaving the fewest number of seeded survivors (27) in the third round of any Grand Slam since the 32-seed format came into existence. Never have eight of the top 10 been eliminated in the first round of any Grand Slam in the Open Era.

Players in Top 10 who were eliminated in the first round itself:

• Alexander Zverev

• Lorenzo Mussetti

• Holger Rune

• Daniil Medvedev

• Coco Gauff

• Jessica Pegula

• Zheng Qinwen

• Paula Badosa

What could have been the reason behind such an uncharacteristic competition? We tried to find answers.

Making Sense of the Madness

Arguably, the most prominent school of thought links upsets in Wimbledon to its scheduling. The transition from the slow grind of clay to the slick pace of grass is brutally swift. Coco Gauff, for instance, had only a three-week gap between her Roland Garros final and the first round Wimbledon match. On being asked about what is causing so many upsets, she said:

I would say really the quick turnaround. Most of the seeds are going deeper in Roland Garros. Then you have to come and try to adjust to grass. This slam out of all of them is the most prone to have upsets because of how quick the turnaround is from clay.

Coco Gauff

The Quint attempted to make sense of the madness. We spoke with former Indian tennis player Vijay Amritraj, who is currently working as an expert for JioStar. He stated:

You brought up a very good point. I think your question is very, very relevant. The important thing here is that, yes, going deep into the French Open has always posed a challenge — no question about it. But there are more grass-court weeks on the calendar now than there were 10–15 years ago. Earlier, there was just one week between the French Open and Wimbledon — you went straight from the French Championships to Queen’s Club, and then it was Wimbledon. It took almost a decade to move the calendar to create this three-week gap between the tournaments. So now there is a chance to play more grass-court events if you want to. But yes, if you’re good enough to win the French Open or go deep into it, you will naturally have less time on grass. At the same time, you're also mentally stronger — you're a world champion, a Roland Garros winner, like Gauff was. So it's really about adjusting quickly to the surface.

Vijay Amritraj

The Other Intrinsic Details

The rapid transition time works in combination with a mental aspect that is often overlooked, yet very fundamental. Following six months of intense scheduling, mental and physical fatigue is only natural for the top players, whilst the lower-ranked players have nothing to lose.

12^th-seed Frances Tiafoe, who, too, was eliminated in the first round itself, said:

The game has incredible depth right now. If you’re not ready to go, you’re going to lose. It seems like guys weren’t ready to go, ready to play.

Frances Tiafoe

Moreover, inexperience of the grass surface also plays into what has been an unprecedented phenomenon in England this year. Notably, there are only seven grass events on the WTA calendar, as opposed to 35 hard court events.

The demands of the grass surface are as such that it will reward any and every player who amalgamates agility with nimble footwork. With it being the fastest surface in the sport, and speed being a non-negotiable, fatigue, coupled with inexperience on the surface, has cost the likes of Gauff.

Amritraj told us:

This is a reason why you often see upsets in the first week of Wimbledon — many of the lower-ranked players have had more time on grass, maybe coming through qualifying or playing earlier events. The top seeds, meanwhile, are still adjusting. But once they get through those early rounds, they become much harder to beat in the second week.

Vijay Amritraj

And Then There Were Four

With the chaos addressed, there is law and order in the semi-finals. Sinner will consider himself lucky for reaching this stage, where he will face the timeless Novak Djokovic, who continues to defy the tyranny of age. At 38, the Serb is gunning for his 25^th Grand Slam. Sinner, though, has already got three to his name at 23, and produced a spectacular show against Alcaraz in the Ronald Garros final, be it in a losing cause.

Who has the upper hand? Amritraj answers:

As you know, Alcaraz and Sinner are seeded 1 and 2. They are scheduled to meet in the final if the draw goes according to plan. But Djokovic’s best shot against them is on this surface. Most of the predictions from my fellow former players have focused on a Djokovic–Alcaraz final. But I was watching Sinner play courtside, and the pace with which he strikes the ball is quite out of the ordinary. If both Sinner and Djokovic make it to the semis — and from a viewer’s standpoint, I hope they do — you're going to see a spectacular semi-final. I think Djokovic has a good chance in the match against Sinner, but it’ll come down to the first two sets.

Vijay Amritraj

Alcaraz will be facing Taylor Fritz — runner-up of the 2024 US Open. Should he advance to the final, and should Sinner beat Djokovic, fans will witness a rematch of what was an extraordinarily epic French Open final, which lasted 5 hours and 29 minutes, making it the longest Roland Garros final and the second-longest Grand Slam final ever.

Is Sinner-Alcaraz the new big rivalry in tennis? Amritraj says:

Sinner and Alcaraz have already developed a strong rivalry — they've won four of the last six Grand Slams between them. So yes, I do believe there’s a rivalry brewing there. Djokovic is still very much in the mix, especially on grass, where he’s hanging on. It’s going to be interesting to see how the rest of the week unfolds with Djokovic. If he makes the semis and faces Sinner, that will definitely be a match to watch.

Vijay Amritraj

Wimbledon 2025 has been relentless, lawless, and for the lack of a better word, wild. Yet, the biggest stars have survived the purge. Somehow.

Now, on to tomorrow.

(Wimbledon can be seen live on JioHotstar & Star Sports Network).