Decoding the Bumrah Paradox — Why Does India Win More Without Their Best Bowler?

India's biggest puzzle—the voters' list—might take a while to decode. We try to decode the second biggest puzzle.

Trying to make sense of the Jasprit Bumrah mystery.

(Photo: X)

Indian cricket is bizarre. But you know it already.

What other word could possibly capture a team capable of lulling you, and the rest of the cricketing world, into believing they’re flat and uninspiring, only to erupt with an unshakable resolve that shocks everyone?

Consider the recent England tour, for example. You’d be convinced that India would lose the series after the first Test, only to believe in a spectacular comeback after the astonishing second Test. The third Test will drag you to the despairing realisation that is all but over, until you will realise that it actually isn’t, as they would summon a performance for the ages in the fifth Test.

It is, hence — for the lack of a better word — bizarre. Almost as if it runs in synchronisation with the movies the country produces — there has to be drama, which will eventually conclude in a happy ending, but not after prolonged agony and plot twists that defy logic.

But, what else is bizarre?

The discourse around the Indian cricket team. And right now, the conversation has zeroed in on India’s greatest pace bowler of the modern era: Jasprit Bumrah.

There are questions on the efficacy of Jasprit Bumrah in Tests.

Wait. Let it sink in. Bumrah. India’s leading Test wicket-taker among pacers since his debut in 2018. A man whose name is synonymous with match-winning spells. And yet, here were are.

But is this discourse entirely bovine, or is there any merit to it?

What Triggered the Bumrah Conversation?

To understand, we must first know what triggered this discourse.

Even before India stepped foot in England, it had been reported that Bumrah’s services can be availed for only three of the five Tests — part of a workload management plan necessitated by his long history of injuries.

And three Tests it was. Leeds, Lord’s and Manchester.

Bumrah was by far India’s best bowler in the first two, and picked up two wickets on a Manchester track that was flatter than a soda can which has been kept open for a month.

So, why the fuss?

As it so turned out, India lost two and drew one of the three matches Bumrah featured in. In a striking contrast, they won both of the matches where Bumrah did not feature.

And hence, we arrive at the question — Is Bumrah even effective?

What the Experts Have Said

Sachin Tendulkar came out in support of the pacer, calling it a ‘coincidence’ that India won the matches he did not play.

Of three Test that he played, he picked up five wickets twice. I know that people are discussing a number of things, that we won those Tests in which he did not play. To me, that is just a coincidence. The quality of Bumrah is exceptional. What he has been able to do is just unbelievable so far. He has been a consistent performer without any doubt (and) I would put him right at the top with anyone else.

Sachin Tendulkar

Dinesh Karthik felt the entire narrative was ‘unfair.’

Now this stat of when he doesn’t play, India does not win — it’s not his mistake. He is so impactful that others pale in comparison at times, which is understandable. He is a world champion. And at times, it’s unfair.

Dinesh Karthik

Harsha Bhogle went further, chastising critics:

Really?? Trolling Bumrah? Hope you aren't among those but If you are, fair to say you have no idea of what you have to endure to become a Bumrah. And you have no appreciation for one of India's greatest matchwinners who, as it turns out, bowls more overs than almost any other bowler.

Harsha Bhogle

India Win More Without Bumrah. Much, Much More.

Indeed, for a bowler who has been India’s greatest match-winner in this decade, the criticism does feel harsh.

But still, the question lingers in the shadows: Is there any merit to the discourse?

Since his Test debut, Bumrah has the lowest average of any Indian bowler with at least 60 wickets over the past eight years. And yet, the cold numbers suggest something strange: India win more when he’s not in the XI.

India With Jasprit Bumrah:

• Matches — 48

• Wins — 20

• Losses — 23

• Draws — 5

• Win Percentage — 41.7%

India Without Jasprit Bumrah:

• Matches — 28

• Wins — 20

• Losses — 5

• Draws — 3

• Win Percentage — 71.4%

That’s a deficit of 29.7% — far too big a gulf to dismiss at first glance.

But dig deeper, and the numbers start telling a very different story.

The Possible Reason Behind the Gulf

Given his unique skillset and his susceptibility to injury, the Indian management have long deployed Bumrah with surgical precision. Sparingly, and so they believed, effectively.

34 of the 48 Tests Bumrah has played were in SENA countries. On the contrary, 18 of the 28 matches he has missed were in India. Bumrah’s first home Test, in fact, came four years after his debut.

In all of the four SENA nations, Bumrah has been India’s leading wicket-taker.

Indian Pacers in England:

• Jasprit Bumrah — 51

• Mohammed Siraj — 46

• Mohammed Shami — 37

• Ishant Sharma — 26

• Ravindra Jadeja — 25

Indian Pacers in Australia:

• Jasprit Bumrah — 64

• Mohammed Siraj — 33

• Ravichandran Ashwin — 19

• Ravindra Jadeja — 18

• Mohammed Shami — 16

Indian Pacers in South Africa:

• Jasprit Bumrah — 38

• Mohammed Shami — 29

• Shardul Thakur — 13

• Mohammed Siraj — 12

• Ravichandran Ashwin — 11

Indian Pacers in New Zealand:

• Jasprit Bumrah — 6

• Ishant Sharma — 5

• Mohammed Shami — 5

• Ravichandran Ashwin — 3

• Ravindra Jadeja — 2

Despite featuring in only 12 of India’s last 30 home Tests, he still is India’s most effective pacer on home soil.

Indian Pacers in India:

• Jasprit Bumrah — 47

• Umesh Yadav — 43

• Mohammed Shami — 38

• Ishant Sharma — 24

• Mohammed Siraj — 19

But Here’s What’s Intriguing

So, we come to the conclusion that India win more without Bumrah simply because he is summoned exclusively for the hardest assignments, right?
Not quite.

The truth is stranger — and far more intriguing. These numbers will help you understand why.

The Main Question — What Leads to This Paradox?

And thus, the generalisation gets debunked. Bumrah has been India’s best pacer, bar none, since his Test debut — and yet, the team has also performed better without him. Both statements stand independently true.

What leads to this paradox?

As it turns out, Bumrah’s compatriots tend to rise when he sits out.

Mohammed Siraj With Bumrah:

• Matches — 25

• Wickets — 74

• Average — 35

Mohammed Siraj Without Bumrah:

• Matches — 16

• Wickets — 49

• Average — 25.10

In Siraj’s case, he has taken 6.75 wickets per match in SENA Tests without Bumrah, while the number drops down to 3.28 in SENA Tests with Bumrah.

Let’s check a few others:

Mohammed Shami With Bumrah:

• Matches — 25

• Wickets — 91

• Average — 26.90

Mohammed Shami Without Bumrah:

• Matches — 12

• Wickets — 43

• Average — 22.65

Akash Deep With Bumrah:

• Matches — 6

• Wickets — 11

• Average — 37.43

Akash Deep Without Bumrah:

• Matches — 4

• Wickets — 17

• Average — 27.47

Umesh Yadav With Bumrah:

• Matches — 6

• Wickets — 16

• Average — 37.43

Umesh Yadav Without Bumrah:

• Matches — 15

• Wickets — 55

• Average — 20.16

Shardul Thakur With Bumrah:

• Matches — 9

• Wickets — 23

• Average — 32.21

Shardul Thakur Without Bumrah:

• Matches — 4

• Wickets — 10

• Average — 28.30

Prasidh Krishna With Bumrah:

• Matches — 4

• Wickets — 13

• Average — 35.15

Prasidh Krishna Without Bumrah:

• Matches — 2

• Wickets — 9

• Average — 33.22

Don’t Blame Bumrah — It’s Absurb. But Do Ask Questions.

It would be not just illogical but absurd to pin the blame on Bumrah for his peers’ drop in numbers when he plays. He — from an individualistic vantage — has never failed to surpass expectations. He has been the singular consistent phenomenon in otherwise a high-variance Indian team.

But it also cannot be ignored that the pacers don’t do well with Bumrah in the team. Is it because having a superstar as a colleague comes with complacency? The quiet assumption that mediocrity is acceptable, because a champion will cover the cracks?

We don’t know yet, neither does the Indian team. But answers should be sought.