Modi-Xi-Putin Revive Reveries of Troika but Trump Tariffs Loom Large Over Optics

While Modi was in Tianjin, Trump boasted that India had offered to reduce its tariffs on US goods to zero

The new troika? PM Narendra Modi with Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping and Russian President Vladimir Putin at SCO summit in Tianjin. 

(Photo: Kamran Akhter/The Quint)

Sometimes a photograph says more than any writ. First, it was the Trump-Putin red-carpet handshake in Alaska, now its Xi-Putin-Modi at the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO).

While the US President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin had a one-on-one drive in the ‘Beast’ in Alaska, Narendra Modi and Putin replayed the same song in a limousine in Tianjin.

The picture-perfect visual bonhomie suggests harmony. But the reality is far more complex.

Gauging the Undercurrents

It is evident that the timing of the SCO meeting was perfect for Beijing to emphasise its outreach in the Global South. Trump raising tariffs against India and other countries and destabilising global markets has given China a chance to show its diplomacy is more dependable than that of the US.

As for India, the optics of such overt displays with Russia and China, which India’s cautious diplomacy would otherwise avoid, have undoubtably stemmed from Trump’s sweeping tariffs. Putin could see it as the troika Moscow wants to revive.

For India, such optics carry weight. But one cannot overlook that on Monday, while Modi was in Tianjin, Trump wrote on the social media site, Truth Social, that India had offered to reduce its tariffs on US goods to zero. Describing the relationship with India as one-sided, Trump said the US is India’s biggest client. He posted:

“The reason is that India has charged us, until now, such high Tariffs, the most of any country, that our businesses are unable to sell into India. It has been a totally one sided disaster! Also, India buys most of its oil and military products from Russia, very little from the US. They have now offered to cut their Tariffs to nothing, but it’s getting late. They should have done so years ago.”

Trump has reportedly urged European countries to follow the US and impose restrictive measures on India for its purchase of Russian oil. Clearly, the POTUS is in no mood to give into these optics. When so many strongmen are in a room, the biggest strongman from a far off will not give in so easily.

A Revived Indo-China Friendship?

There are several chinks in the armour of this revived Indo-China friendship, not forgetting that just a few months ago India did not sign the SCO joint release. This time, oddly, External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar is not part of the delegation, and neither have there been any hugs between Chinese President Xi and Modi.

Columnist Brahma Chellany noted that appeasement “has never tamed revisionist powers, and it has often emboldened them.” But he cautioned that after the 2020 Galwan clashes, PM Modi who is in China in an "apparent effort to ease friction", should be wary, as "recent history offers a stark warning: trusting China is a dangerous path."

But it would take some time to bring things back on track. As Gautam Bambawale, India’s former ambassador to China, told CNBC,

“The dragon and the elephant are not dancing as yet. They are just looking at each other from opposite sides of a room and trying to assess the implications of the relationship between the two."

Gautam Bambawale

Players in a Multipolar Game

For several years, India remained a key player in a new multipolar order with one foot in Washington and the other in Moscow, even as it always kept a wary eye on China. But Trump’s constant public rebuke and tariffs have altered the picture.

Modi’s China visit can be seen more as a pragmatic reproachment rather than a diplomatic victory. For Russia, the SCO remains one of the few international platforms where Putin is not on the defensive, exhibiting Moscow’s enduring ties with influential Asian partners despite Western sanctions.

For his part, Putin was facing a Trump-issued deadline to hold peace talks with Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky. Speaking at the Tianjin summit, Putin thanked China and India for their support and their efforts to “facilitate the resolution of the Ukraine crisis”. Clearly, the longer the war goes on, the more Russia will need China’s and India’s assistance economically and otherwise.

Lim Chuan-Tiong, of the Institute of Advanced Studies on Asia, University of Tokyo told The Guardian:

“As long as the mutual opponent (US) has not been defeated, China and Russia’s off-limits cooperation will remain. Their cooperation also serves to highlight a global order that exists beyond the United States.”

The long-standing Indo-Russian relationship is not suspect as Putin plans to visit India in December, yet Delhi’s foreign policy stands at a crossroads. It is a fragile balancing act. India is part of Indo-Pacific Quad with Japan, the US and Australia, a member of the China-Russia bloc SCO and the I2U2 with Israel, the UAE and the US.

India will need to decide how it will fit into a China-led, Russia-backed, non-American world order.

(Nabanita Sircar is a senior journalist based in London. She tweets at @sircarnabanita. This is an opinion piece, and the views expressed above are the author’s own. The Quint neither endorses nor is responsible for the same.)