We Are At War, Or Are We?

Developments through the last few days doesn’t hold promise of a downturn immediately

A man stands at his house damaged after shelling by Pakistani troops, in Gingal area of Uri in Baramulla district.

(Photo: PTI)

'Truth is the biggest casualty during war' is sort of a cliché, but disinformation is flying thick and fast—and predictably, even government information is classified and restricted. The “verified through sources” information is getting embargoed and suddenly we are in the middle of it all.

It is another evening of offensive and counter-offensive. It was a very long Thursday night of warfare from Jaisalmer to Bhuj across 26 locations. The sky lit up with continuous flashes from projectiles and the uneasy silence hanging over the last few days shattered by the sirens.

Heavy artillery fire targeted homes and religious shrines across several villages on the border.

The Indian air defence reportedly intercepted 400-500 Pakistani missile drone attempts to hit military installations. The Indian Unmanned Aerial System (UAS) was grid activated along the border states, including S400 Triumf, surface-to-air missiles like Barak 8 MRSAM, and indigenous Akash that is believed to have thwarted most attacks. India has not put out any information of losses of military assets. 

The escalation has been swift. And developments through the last few days don't hold promise of a downturn immediately.

One cannot speculate but a fair assessment would mean a few notches of escalation before an agreeable de-escalation. Whispers in corridors of South Block peg it from a week to a month. 

Pakistan will most certainly avoid a direct war and will intensify shelling across the LoC and use missiles but to carry on and stretch it all along the border would be difficult.

India’s diplomatic outreach has so far been effective, but India is no mood to back off and wants a vantage position in this round. Hitting Lahore’s air defence assets makes Pakistan vulnerable but all eyes should be on China, Pakistan’s all-weather friend.

In the night of 6-7 May, India struck, following up from 2016 Uri and 2019 Pulwama retaliations, with air strikes well inside Pakistan reportedly aimed at dismantling “terrorist infrastructure”. The first Pakistani response was on the ground with artillery shelling killing Indian civilians along the Line of Control. Villagers told me the night of 6-7 May was particularly deadly in Rajouri and Poonch. It is only getting worse for the last-mile settlements.

In the first government communique after “India exercised its right to retaliate and deter” the foreign ministry briefing on 7 May opened with a video presentation and a timeline of terrorist attacks in which India claimed Pakistan’s involvement. However, no proof was provided though there is overwhelming evidence of Pakistan harbouring several wanted terrorists in India.

It is well known that Pakistan wages war after war in the name of liberating Kashmir. The country’s army chief very recently referred as their “jugular vein”.

India says over the last decade, 350 civilians were killed and 800 injured in terrorist attacks. Indian Foreign Secretary Vikram Misri was briefing the nation. His semantics was clear using words like “murder”, “barbaric” and describing the nature of injury.

Terror training camps were marked and hit from Sawai Nala to Bahawalpur with descriptions and visuals of what these places stand for in relation to terrorism. Prima facie India’s planning and execution appears superior, except any deterrence to Pakistan’s proxy war, will not yield long-term results. If his briefing was any indication, India appeared confident and prepared to strike. His second briefing was more restrained.

Fog of Media War

For the Indian media and specifically television media, unfortunately, this is their relish. This is when the ratings soar, and newsrooms become war rooms. Journalists usually go ahead of themselves and declare war almost provoking the country to bay for blood. Indian television since long has suffered from jingoistic and performative news accompanied by drumrolls and self-styled war experts.

They use the same words, same phrases as the government, and the military repeating every piece of propaganda information justifying it as “official version” without which even the editorial wouldn’t pass a copy. This time is no different and long after the sirens die down the television pundits will continue to speculate.

Covert Wars

Military operations of the kind we are witnessing are overt strikes intended to escalate the optics and assert the right to retaliate on the international stage. However, most nation states, including India and Pakistan, continue to carry out covert war games striking whenever they can through their networks and ad hoc intel units like TSD (Technical Support Division) that was set up after 26/11 Mumbai attacks, specifically to hurt Pakistan.

Behind the benign name, the unit under MI-25 was mandated to covertly hit inside Pakistan. It was believed to have been set up by the then army chief VK Singh who became a minister in the BJP government. The government distanced itself from TSD, saying it never had any mandate.

Even top officers of the Indian Army’s intelligence units had no idea. It was like a spy agency inside a spy agency.

Within two years it was disbanded but covert operations continued in various forms. There is another reciprocal war that comes under this covert activity carried out by border action units on either side. They go across the Line of Control and carry out operations.

Neither country is fighting over sovereignty and yet they manage to maintain the most militarised zone on this planet. Four wars and a million cuts are still not enough to quench the thirst for war. “No one wins a war both sides lose” is another cliché but this is what the generals should remind themselves.

(Kishalay Bhattacharjee is Professor and Dean, Jindal School of Journalism and Communication and author most recently of ‘Where the Madness Lies: Citizen Accounts of Identity and Nationalism’. This is an opinion piece and the views expressed are the author’s own. The Quint neither endorses nor is responsible for them.)