Dilli Dur-Ast: An Existential Crisis in the Heart of Congress

The once unshakeable juggernaut has been brought down to naught. What is at the core of the Congress' slippage?

Rahul Gandhi has been unable to capitalise on the Lok Sabha 2024 wave of support for the Congress in successive state elections.

(Photo: Aroop Mishra/Altered by The Quint)

PThat the Congress was heading for a rout in the Delhi Assembly election was evident well before the results were declared last week. The final tally merely reconfirmed that the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and the Arvind Kejriwal-led Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) were the key players in this election, and that the Congress remained a “no show”.

The party drew a blank for the third time in a row, posting a marginal increase of 2.13 percentage points in its vote share even as most of its leading candidates lost their deposits.

It is the very same Congress which had once dominated the Delhi political landscape for 15 years under the leadership of Sheila Dikshit who is acknowledged, even by her political opponents, as a dynamic and efficient chief minister. 

Dikshit endeared herself to different sections of society – from the middle classes to the slum dwellers – with her amiable personality and accessibility. Even in this election, Dikshit’s contribution in improving the city was remembered with a touch of nostalgia by residents who lamented the poor state of civic amenities in Delhi today.

Anna Hazare and Congress’ Undoing

The Anna Hazare-headed anti-corruption movement and the emergence of the Kejriwal-led AAP, proved to be Dikshit’s undoing. Her credibility took a beating following the graft charges levelled against her in the organisation of the 2010 Commonwealth Games. Her case was further weakened when she was accused of profiting distribution companies by allowing them to charge high electricity rates.

This, combined with the growing unpopularity of the Congress-led United Progressive Alliance (UPA) government at the Centre, dealt a body blow to Dikshit personally when she was defeated by Kejriwal in 2013.

Pushed to the third position in that election, the Congress made the politically double-edged move of lending support to the formation of a government by the newbie AAP. In the process, it paved the way for its own decimation.

The Congress has since been in decline. Its vote share has plummeted and its support base, comprising slum dwellers, minorities, and Scheduled Castes, shifted en masse to the AAP. These sections stayed loyal to Kejriwal through the years as he delivered on his promise to provide free electricity to the city’s underclass, free bus travel to women, the establishment of mohalla clinics, and improved facilities in government schools.

Delhi has, for over a decade now, kept company with states like Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, West Bengal, Odisha, Tamil Nadu, and Andhra Pradesh where the Congress organisation has been weakened beyond repair after it lost its support base to regional parties. As in the case of these states, the Congress’ Delhi unit made half-hearted attempts to win back its core voter base but to little avail. It was clearly hamstrung by a dispirited cadre and the absence of a creditable and charismatic local leader capable of taking on Kejriwal or the looming, bigger rival, ‘Brand Modi’.

In fact, the Delhi disaster came months after the Congress’s dismal performance in the Maharashtra and Haryana Assembly elections where it was confident of doing well following its creditable performance in last year’s Lok Sabha poll.

The string of defeats has, once again, put the focus back on Rahul Gandhi’s leadership capabilities, the poor health of the party organisation, the steady depletion in the Congress party’s ranks, its failure to match the BJP’s election machinery, or respond effectively to its aggressive brand of Hindutva.

An Existential Crisis

The loss of three Assembly polls has pushed the Congress back in time when it faced an existential crisis after its decimation in the 2014 and 2019 Lok Sabha elections. There was a serious churn in the party during this period as Rahul Gandhi locked horns with the Congress old guard and stepped down as party president in a huff.

Though Sonia Gandhi returned as Congress chief, the uncertainty in the Congress persisted as it was well-known that this was only a holding operation. Senior leader Mallikarjun Kharge’s election as Congress president brought about a semblance of normalcy in the party.

Rahul Gandhi’s Bharat Jodo Yatra and the Congress victories in Karnataka and Himachal Pradesh Assembly polls helped enthuse an otherwise dispirited party cadre. The successful formation of an Opposition alliance and the Congress party’s improved tally in the Lok Sabha gave further hope to its workers that the party had turned the corner.

Congress, however, failed to cash in on its Lok Sabha performance as it clearly underestimated the BJP which fought back with renewed zeal. Delhi is its third electoral victory after Maharashtra and Haryana since it was denied a clear majority in the 2024 general election. 

Arrogance Kills

An over-confident Congress lost Maharashtra as it was unable to connect with the electorate with its continuing focus on “the Constitution is in danger.” And in Haryana, the Congress paid a heavy price for its complete dependence on former chief minister Bhupinder Singh Hooda, even as it turned a blind eye to the rampant factionalism in its state unit.

Still reeling from the shock of these twin defeats, the Congress ventured to regain its traditional support base in the Delhi election by going solo, months after it contested last year’s Lok Sabha election in alliance with the AAP.

Congress insiders reveal that the party’s local leaders persuaded Rahul Gandhi to launch an aggressive campaign against Kejriwal after the AAP released a poster that included the Congress leader in a list of corrupt leaders.

Drawing his attention to this “foul play” by Kejriwal, Delhi Congress leaders reiterated their long-held argument that the party’s revival depended on winning back the support of its traditional voter base. And this, in turn, could only be achieved by destroying 'Brand Kejriwal' and weakening the AAP. 

By doing so, they maintained, Kejriwal’s national ambitions would be effectively stymied – and he would be less of a threat outside Delhi. The AAP has not only won Punjab, a state where the Congress had strong roots but also made inroads in Gujarat and Goa at the expense of the Congress.

The AAP was eventually brought down but it’s no credit to the Congress which continues to languish on the sidelines. It could be argued that Delhi is a small state and that the Congress party’s humiliating defeat is no surprise. It is also a fact, however, that the impact of this election will be felt beyond the ramparts of the capital.

Who Leads INDIA now?

The Delhi verdict also raises serious questions about the Congress’ position in the INDIA bloc. While the Congress has to set its house in order and figure out its future electoral strategy, it also has to deal with the discord and disaffection within the INDIA bloc. Doubts have already been raised about its credentials to lead the Opposition alliance. 

The Trinamool Congress has been distancing itself from the Congress for some time now (the party campaigned for the AAP in Delhi) and has suggested that West Bengal Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee be entrusted with the leadership of the alliance.

The Samajwadi Party also campaigned for Kejriwal’s party and slammed the Congress for working against the AAP in the Delhi election, soon after the verdict was announced. In fact, SP leader Ram Gopal Yadav had recently publicly stated that PM Modi could not be defeated because of the Congress. Similarly, National Conference leader and Jammu and Kashmir Chief Minister Omar Abdullah has questioned the very existence of the INDIA alliance.

As regional parties continue to snipe at the Congress, the future of the INDIA bloc hangs in the balance. Many political pundits have declared that the alliance, forged in the run-up to last year’s Lok Sabha election, dead.

There is also a possibility that regional parties may be tempted to sever ties with the Congress and form a separate third front. 

It will not, however, be easy for these parties to take on the mighty BJP on their own. An effective and viable alliance needs a big political party to anchor it. Despite its weakness and diminishing footprint, the Congress is best placed for that role as the other parties are confined to their respective states. 

In the end, regional satraps may not forsake the Congress as yet. The Opposition parties will need to hang together for it can be expected that a triumphant (and vindictive) BJP will go all out to crush them.

If such is the case, the regional parties will drive a hard bargain and push the grand old party to function on their terms. For the moment, they will muddle along.

(The writer is a senior Delhi-based journalist. She can be reached at @anitaakat. This is an opinion piece, and the views expressed are the author's own. The Quint neither endorses nor is responsible for them.)