Inside BJP’s High-Stakes VP Race: RSS, Coalitions, and Power Politics

After Dhankar's exit, Modi-Shah must weigh RSS ties, coalition demands and loyalty in picking its 2025 next nominee.

Image of the BJP’s symbol used for representational purposes.

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As the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) prepares for the 2025 vice-presidential election, it faces a multifaceted challenge that transcends the ceremonial nature of the office. The selection of the next Vice President, who also serves as the ex-officio Rajya Sabha Chairman, is a strategic decision that will signal the party’s priorities in a dynamic political landscape.

With coalition dynamics, ideological commitments, and leadership hierarchies at play, the BJP must navigate a complex web of considerations to ensure its choice strengthens its national standing and internal cohesion. 

This decision comes at a critical juncture, as the party seeks to consolidate power while addressing regional aspirations and coalition demands ahead of key state elections. The BJP must restore confidence with the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS), its ideological anchor, following tensions over Jagdeep Dhankhar’s ousting, a move that unsettled the RSS.

The candidate must embody Hindutva principles without challenging the dominance of Narendra Modi and Amit Shah, who prioritise loyalty to maintain the party’s centralised structure.

Simultaneously, the candidate needs political acumen to manage a polarised Rajya Sabha, where coalition dynamics are increasingly vital post-2024 elections. The BJP must also secure the confidence of National Democratic Alliance (NDA) partners, notably Janata Dal (United) and Telugu Desam Party (TDP). With JDU’s Harivansh Narayan Singh already serving as Rajya Sabha Deputy Chairman and Bihar elections looming, Nitish Kumar’s approval is crucial, even if a JDU candidate is unlikely.

Similarly, Chandrababu Naidu’s TDP may seek a significant constitutional role, though the vice presidency will likely remain with a BJP loyalist acceptable to allies. Finally, the candidate must project ideological continuity and national appeal, reinforcing the BJP’s cultural nationalism while unifying diverse regions. This delicate balancing act will shape the BJP’s trajectory in India’s evolving political arena.

Restoring RSS Confidence

The removal of Vice-President Jagdeep Dhankhar, once seen as a trusted ally of the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS), has opened a quiet but significant rift between the ideological mentor and its political progeny, the BJP. While Dhankhar may not have emerged from the traditional RSS ranks, his tenure as West Bengal Governor brought him closer to the Sangh, and his subsequent support—especially on matters of judicial nuance—earned him considerable goodwill within the organisation.

His consistent praise of the RSS in Parliament, coupled with his sharp rebuke of MPs who dared to criticise it, made him a rare voice of institutional legitimacy for the Sangh within the upper echelons of power.

That the BJP chose to sideline such a figure has not gone unnoticed. Sangh insiders are reportedly miffed at the way Dhankhar was handled, and this discontent could snowball if not addressed tactfully.

As the BJP gears up to nominate a new Vice-President, the task is not merely administrative—it is deeply political. The candidate must satisfy the RSS’s ideological expectations without appearing to undermine the central authority of Narendra Modi and Amit Shah.

It’s a delicate balancing act, and failure could invite internal backlash.

With crucial state elections looming and the memory of the RSS’s lukewarm support in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections still fresh, the BJP can ill-afford a full-blown rupture. For now, the message from Nagpur seems clear: ignore the Sangh at your own peril.

Ensuring Loyalty to Modi-Shah Leadership

In the Modi-Shah era of the BJP, where decisive leadership and centralised command are the norm, few moments have punctured that image. The rollback of the three controversial farm laws stands as a clear political setback. But if there’s a second major dent in the duo’s leadership narrative, it is arguably the miscalculated elevation of Jagdeep Dhankhar to the Vice-Presidency.

Dhankhar’s selection, initially seen as a masterstroke, came with the blessings of the RSS. Yet the project faltered. His assertiveness and growing influence were perceived as unsettling the delicate balance within the BJP’s rigid power structure.

His quiet exit is more than a routine resignation—it reflects a rare strategic misstep for a leadership otherwise known for keeping its house in order.

This makes the next choice of Vice-President critically important. The candidate must be more than just ideologically aligned; they must be unquestionably loyal to the Modi-Shah command. The post, though constitutional in nature, cannot afford to become a parallel platform of political assertion.

This is where the memory of Venkaiah Naidu becomes instructive. A veteran with deep roots in both the BJP and the RSS, Naidu was a towering figure in his own right a former party president and close confidant of Vajpayee and Advani. Yet, during his tenure as Vice-President under Modi, he remained firmly within the limits of his constitutional role, never once challenging the party’s current leadership. His loyalty was unquestioned; his conduct was exemplary.

In the aftermath of the Dhankhar episode, the BJP may well return to such a model someone from the grassroots, respected yet restrained, with enough gravitas to carry the office but no ambition to outshine the high command.

As 2029 looms on the horizon and internal cohesion becomes paramount, the Vice-Presidency is no longer just a ceremonial appointment—it is a strategic one.

Strengthening Coalition Trust and Strategic Alliances

The BJP’s vice-presidential candidate must adeptly manage the expectations of NDA allies to ensure coalition stability while advancing the party’s national agenda. With the political landscape increasingly reliant on coalition arithmetic, the candidate’s acceptability to partners like JDU and TDP is paramount, even if the role remains firmly in BJP hands.

The selection must reassure allies of their influence within the NDA, particularly as the alliance navigates competitive regional politics.

For instance, with JDU’s strong presence in Bihar, the BJP needs a candidate who can foster trust with Nitish Kumar, ensuring smooth coordination in the Rajya Sabha without implying a shift in power dynamics. 

Similarly, TDP’s Chandrababu Naidu, keen on reasserting Andhra Pradesh’s interests, may expect the candidate to be sensitive to regional development priorities, strengthening the NDA’s southern outreach.

Beyond coalition management, the candidate should bring a reputation for consensus-building, capable of mediating disputes within the alliance and with the opposition as well to maintain legislative momentum.

As the BJP gears up for the 2029 Lok Sabha elections, it is poised to push forward key legislative agendas such as the Uniform Civil Code and ‘One Nation, One Election.’ While the NDA holds a majority in the Rajya Sabha, building consensus in Parliament will be essential—especially since not all alliance partners may be on board with such contentious reforms.

The tenure of Jagdeep Dhankhar as Vice President significantly strained relations between the Opposition, the Chair, and the government.

To navigate this challenging legislative terrain, the BJP would be wise to back a candidate for the Vice President’s post who commands goodwill and acceptability across party lines.

This is vital as the BJP pushes key reforms while facing opposition scrutiny. Additionally, the candidate must project an image of inclusivity, appealing to diverse NDA constituents and reinforcing the coalition’s unity in public perception. A leader with a track record of bridging ideological and regional divides can elevate the NDA’s collective narrative, positioning it as a cohesive alternative to fragmented opposition alliances.

By prioritising these coalition-centric qualities, the BJP can solidify its leadership within the NDA, ensuring the vice presidency becomes a fulcrum for alliance synergy rather than a point of contention.

(The author teaches journalism at St. Xavier’s College (autonomous), Kolkata. His handle on X is @sayantan_gh. This is an opinion piece, and the views expressed are the author’s own. The Quint neither endorses nor is responsible for them.)