Bihar Blueprint: BJP Needs Nitish as Hindutva Simmers in Bihar's Caste Cauldron

Amid Nitish fatigue and a muted Hindutva, 2025 could mark a generational shift — or a fractured mandate -—in Bihar.

2025 Bihar Assembly elections: The BJP-DJ(U) alliance is likely to face pressure from rising leaders like Tejashwi Yadav in Bihar in the upcoming polls.

(Kamran Akhter/The Quint)

The 2025 Bihar Assembly election looms as a pivotal test for the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), caught between its reliance on Nitish Kumar and its ideological moorings in Hindutva. The BJP’s reaffirmed alliance with Nitish’s Janata Dal (United) unde the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) banner underscores a marriage of convenience, one dictated by Bihar’s complex caste arithmetic rather than ideological synergy.

Nitish, a wily veteran, commands a coalition of the Extremely Backward Castes (EBCs), Mahadalits, and Kurmi-Koeri voters, making him the linchpin of the electoral prospects.

Publicly, the BJP has tethered itself to his leadership, with state leaders like Samrat Choudhary projecting unity. Yet, this partnership reveals a deeper tension: Nitish appears on a leash with his secular, development-focused governance perceivably curbing the BJP’s Hindutva ambitions. In a state where caste trumps religion, the party’s saffron agenda—potent elsewhere—seems sidelined, sparking unease among its hardcore base.

Is this a tactical retreat to secure power, or a sign of Hindutva’s limits in Bihar?

As the BJP balances coalition compulsions with its long-term goal of ruling Bihar independently, the 2025 Assembly election will test whether it can keep Nitish in check without losing its soul. The stakes couldn’t be higher.

BJP Tightens Leash on Nitish

The BJP’s public endorsement of Nitish Kumar as the NDA’s face for the 2025 Bihar elections is based on shrewd recalibration. The 2024 Lok Sabha results, with both the BJP and JD(U) clinching 12 seats each, exposed vulnerabilities in the alliance.

Nitish’s history of political somersaults has dented his reliability, and recent analyses suggest his popularity as Bihar’s preferred chief minister has dipped alarmingly—some surveys place it below 20 percent.

This erosion hasn’t gone unnoticed. The BJP, sensing an opening, is quietly tightening its reins. Reports indicate the party aims to contest and win around a hundred of Bihar’s 243 Assembly seats in 2025 after winning 74 in 2020. This isn’t just ambition—it’s a power play. The induction of seven new BJP ministers into Nitish’s cabinet on 27 February further telegraphs intent.

These moves signal a shift from coalition parity to dominance, with Nitish relegated to a symbolic role.

Political observers note the BJP’s knack for capitalising on its allies’ weaknesses, and Bihar seems ripe for such a maneuver. What is unfolding is not a partnership, but rather a gradual takeover, with Nitish under pressure and his influence diminishing as the BJP seeks control.

Hindutva’s Uneasy Past in Bihar’s Caste Matrix

As the 2025 Bihar Assembly election nears, a pressing question haunts the BJP: can Hindutva finally strike a chord in the state? History suggests it’s an uphill battle. Steeped in caste loyalties, Bihar’s political landscape has repeatedly rebuffed the BJP’s Hindu nationalist agenda, favouring pragmatic governance over ideological fervour.

The roots of Hindutva’s failure in the state stretch back decades. In the 1990s, while the Ram Mandir movement propelled the BJP elsewhere, Bihar rallied behind Lalu Prasad Yadav’s Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD), which fused Yadav and Muslim votes into a formidable bloc under the 'M-Y' formula.

The state’s caste matrix— largely saffron upper caste (15 percent) voters with a fragmented Other Backward Caste (OBC) and Dalit (over 60 percent) voters — diluted the party's emotional appeals to Hindu unity.

The BJP’s 2015 Assembly election debacle epitomised this mismatch. Riding a Hindutva wave, it pushed divisive issues like beef bans, only to lose to Nitish's JD(U)-RJD alliance, which stitched a rainbow coalition of castes. Forced to adapt, the BJP toned down its rhetoric to retain Nitish’s support, sidelining its core ideology.

Even today, Hindutva struggles to penetrate Bihar’s psyche. Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s recent Maha Kumbh pitch in Bhagalpur, steeped in religious symbolism, was at odds with a voter base that prioritises survival over divinity or sanctimony.

Surveys reveal that unemployment—cited by 45 percent respondents as their 'top concern'—trumps temple politics at a grassroots level. Nitish’s JD(U) and Tejashwi Yadav’s RJD capitalise on this. They have been offering jobs and caste-based quotas, even as the BJP’s upper-caste-heavy image limits its reach. The 2020 election, where the NDA narrowly won despite a national Ram Mandir high, underscored Hindutva’s weak pull— the wins in Bihar owed more to Nitish’s caste engineering than the state's overall saffron zeal.

In Bihar’s socio-political cauldron, caste remains king, and Hindutva an uneasy guest.

Unless the BJP retools its playbook to align with this reality, its ideological flag may flutter in vain once more come 2025.

Nitish an Asset and Liability

As the 2025 Bihar election looms, Nitish Kumar remains a paradox for the BJP — a vital asset and a growing liability.

His mastery of social engineering, particularly among the EBCs and Kurmis, fortifies the NDA’s electoral coalition. In 2020, the BJP-led government relied heavily on his 43 seats, even though their own 74 seats failed to secure a majority.

This arithmetic underscores his indispensability, giving the NDA a broader caste reach that the BJP’s upper-caste core alone can’t muster. However, Nitish's 20-year-long rule is beginning to falter. Recent polls indicate a shift in support, with 41 percent of voters now favouring RJD's youthful heir Tejashwi Yadav as chief minister. Yada's rise in popularity indicates a growing fatigue with Nitish's tenure and his inconsistent policies, which have earned him the nickname "Paltu Ram."

For the BJP, dumping Nitish isn’t an option—yet. His coalition clout keeps the NDA in power. But murmurs of a “Maharashtra model” linger.

There, the BJP sidelined ally Eknath Shinde post-victory, installing their own leader. A similar trajectory may follow in Bihar if the BJP manages to outseats JD(U) in 2025.

While a harder push for Hindutva as a poll plank might energise BJP's core base, it risks alienating Nitish’s secular-leaning voters, thus unraveling the delicate alliance math.

Nitish is the shield as well as the shackle on the BJP's rise in Bihar. The saffron party's strategy with him thus blends control with caution.

By steering the campaign via leaders like Samrat Choudhary and Vijay Sinha while ostensibly promoting Nitish’s face, the party aims for overall stability while eyeing dominance within. Hindutva’s potency, however, remains largely untested against Bihar’s caste loyalties and economic woes. 

If it flops (as it did in 2015) the RJD and the newly formed Jan Suraaj Party's Prashant Kishor could exploit the gap.

The NDA's success hinges on blending Nitish’s appeal with BJP’s organisational might. Bihar 2025 presents a challenging situation where ideology and reality collide, potentially leading to either success or failure for the BJP's saffron bet. Hindutva may not be able to pull the party though alone.

BJP-Nitish Duo Faces a Youthful Challenge in Bihar

As the 2025 Bihar Assembly election approaches, the BJP-Nitish Kumar alliance confronts an unprecedented test from two young, dynamic leaders: Tejashwi Yadav and Prashant Kishor. This duo, long reliant on caste arithmetic and Nitish’s governance credentials, now faces a shifting landscape where youth appeal and personal charisma threaten to upend their dominance.

Tejashwi, the RJD heir, has emerged as a formidable force, tapping into Bihar’s restless youth and economically marginalised.

At 35, his focus on jobs — 45 percent of voters cite unemployment as their top issue, per recent surveys — resonates deeply with the youth in Bihar. His 2020 campaign, promising 10 lakh jobs, nearly toppled the NDA, and today, polls show him leading as the preferred CM with 41 percent support against Nitish’s 18 percent.

Tejashwi’s blend of Lalu Yadav’s caste legacy and a modern, pragmatic pitch draws a diverse coalition—Muslims, Yadavs, and aspirational young voters—making him a direct threat to the BJP-JD(U) vote bank.

Prashant Kishor, the strategist-turned-politician, may bring a different challenge. His Jan Suraaj Party, launched on 28 August 2023, targets Bihar’s disillusioned middle class and EBCs with a governance-first agenda.

At 47, Kishor’s outsider appeal—bolstered by his critique of Nitish’s “bureaucratic jungle raj” and promises to end the liquor ban—has earned him 15 percent CM preference in surveys. His 3,000-km padayatra and caste-balanced ticket strategy signal a break from traditional politics, attracting urban professionals and reform-seekers.

The BJP-Nitish duo, banking on the party's organisational might and Nitish’s EBC-Kurmi base, now faces a pincer attack.

Tejashwi’s populist energy and Kishor’s technocratic vision may split the anti-incumbency vote, complicating the NDA’s math.

With Nitish’s fatigue evident and Hindutva muted, 2025 could mark a generational shift—or a fractured mandate—testing whether experience can outlast youth’s rising tide in Bihar’s volatile cauldron.

(Sayantan Ghosh is a research scholar and teaches journalism at St. Xavier’s College (autonomous), Kolkata. X: @sayantan_gh. This is an opinion piece. All views expressed are the author’s own. The Quint neither endorses nor is responsible for them.)