AAP Wins Visavadar Bypoll: The Secret Behind Gopal Italia's Win Over BJP

AAP's Gopal Italia has won from Visavadar in Gujarat. 

(AAP Gujarat Facebook Page)

The by-election in Gujarat's Visavadar seat held on June 19 has emerged as a rare but symbolic victory for the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) in a state otherwise dominated by the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). In a significant result that follows the defection of AAP’s Bhupendrabhai Bhayani to the BJP, Gopal Italia of AAP won the seat with 75,942 votes (53.3%), defeating BJP’s Kirit Patel who secured 58,388 votes (41%), with a clear victory margin of 17,554 votes. The Congress, once a major player here, collapsed to a mere 5,501 votes (3.9%), continuing its terminal decline in the region.

Visavadar, located in Junagadh district, is a predominantly agrarian constituency composed of Visavadar, Bhesan, parts of Junagadh taluka, and Kadaya village of Amreli district. The electorate is largely rural, with Patels comprising nearly 50%, alongside significant OBC and SC communities. The anger among farmers, especially in Eco-Zone affected villages, formed the core of the anti-BJP surge. Key grievances included non-receipt of MSP, fertiliser shortages, lack of loan waivers, and development restrictions due to the Gir Eco-Zone regulations—issues that BJP had failed to address meaningfully on the ground.

One of the most striking signs of political frustration came from Chanaka village, which is notably the ancestral village of former Chief Minister Vijay Rupani, who died in the Ahmedabad Plane Crash. Villagers in Chanaka openly expressed discontent, mocking the condition of roads and health facilities. A sarcastic remark that a woman might give birth on the road due to the absence of basic medical infrastructure, symbolised deep local neglect.

The slogan “Sarkar to bekaar chhe” (the government is useless) echoed across multiple villages, especially in Visavadar taluka.

Despite such anger, it’s important to recognise that the BJP remains an extremely powerful and well-organised force across Gujarat. Its cadre structure, communication machinery, and leadership continue to dominate the state. Even in Visavadar, BJP retained a significant 41% vote share, and pockets of support remain intact—especially among elderly voters and women who appreciate central welfare schemes and Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s popularity. The BJP’s organisational strength ensures its continued electoral dominance statewide, often resulting in one-sided Assembly victories as seen in 2022.

However, where dissatisfaction with local governance exists—as in Visavadar—AAP is now emerging as the most active challenger, especially as Congress cedes ground. Gopal Italia's grassroots-focused campaign, with a strong stance on Eco-Zone injustice, direct farmer engagement, and continued visibility, helped him turn discontent into votes. Italia's personal credibility, shaped by his leadership in the Patidar agitation and social movements, helped AAP consolidate votes not just from the anti-BJP bloc but also from traditional Congress supporters, particularly among SC and OBC voters.

The Congress’s collapse in Visavadar is reflective of its broader decline across Gujarat. From winning the seat in 2014 and securing 54.7% votes in 2017, it has now shrunk to 3.9%, without campaign visibility, credible leadership, or local presence. In this vacuum, AAP is aggressively positioning itself as the new opposition force, trying to replace Congress at the grassroots level.

There’s also a broader sense of political cynicism among voters. The complaint that “Whoever we elect is later poached by BJP”—a direct reference to Bhayani’s defection—has left many voters frustrated. AAP capitalized on this narrative, presenting itself as the only party capable of resisting BJP’s political engineering.

Looking ahead to the 2027 Gujarat Assembly elections, AAP is expected to intensify its efforts in areas like Saurashtra where anti-incumbency is brewing. While BJP’s hold over the state remains undisputed, especially in urban regions and strongholds, AAP’s rise in rural belts could reshape opposition dynamics, especially as Congress continues to wither. In constituencies like Visavadar, AAP will likely make further inroads, eroding Congress's residual space and emerging as the primary alternative to BJP.

The Visavadar by-election was far more than an ordinary contest—it served as a reflection of a maturing third force, a test of rural resilience, and a glimpse into how Gujarat’s electoral map could be redrawn. In a state where the BJP’s dominance has long appeared unshakable, AAP’s strategic grassroots gains combined with the Congress’s rapid decline suggest that the next political battle may no longer be bipolar, but increasingly triangular—with AAP emerging a major challenger.

(Madan Mohan Jha is currently working as a Senior Political Analyst at ETG Research, where he leads field studies, opinion polls, and electoral analysis across multiple states.)