BJP Loses Varanasi, Cong Zero in Karnataka: Big Picture from MLC Poll Results

The NDA has won 15 out of 28 seats across four states.

(MLC election reflected a mixed bag for the NDA and INDIA Bloc)

(Kamran Akhter/The Quint)

The BJP-led NDA won 15 out of 28 seats in the recently concluded MLC election held across four states. The results were a mixed bag for the INDIA Bloc, with the Samajwadi Party making gains in Uttar Pradesh, NCP(SP) and Congress doing well in Maharashtra but the Congress failing to win a single seat in Karnataka.

Here's a detailed state-wise and breakdown of the results.

Uttar Pradesh

BJP: Meerut Graduates, Agra Graduates, Lucknow Teachers, Meerut Teachers, Bareilly-Moradabad Teachers, Gorakhpur-Faizabad Teachers.

SP: Allahabad-Jhansi Graduates, Lucknow Graduates, Varanasi Graduates, Varanasi Teachers, Agra Teachers.

The SP's wins in Varanasi and Lucknow are symbolic as they happen to be the Lok Sabha constituencies of Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Defence Minister Rajnath Singh. In contrast,t he BJP managed to win in CM Yogi Adityanath's turf.

A few observers are seeing this as Yogi Adiyanath's way of asserting his dominance both within the BJP and outside ahead of the Assembly elections.

The Agra Teachers win for the SP is also being seen as the result of a tactical shift by a section of BSP supporters.

Though the eligible voters in MLC elections are limited and turnout usually remains low, this will serve as a morale booster for the SP ahead of the Assembly elections earlier next year.

Bihar

NDA: Kosi Graduates, Tirhut Teachers, Patna Graduates (JD-U)

RJD: Patna Teachers, Darbhanga Graduates

Jan Suraj: Darbhanga Teachers

Independent: Tirhut Graduates, Saran Teachers

The Bihar results reflect two processes: the existence of a strong Opposition space and fragmentation within the Opposition space. While the RJD has retained its influence, the loss of senior Congress leader Madan Mohan Jha to Jan Suraj comes as an embarrassment to the party.

Karnataka

The NDA had a clean sweep with the BJP winning the Northeast Teachers, South East Graduates and West Graduates seats and its ally JD-S winning the Bengaluru Teachers seat.

This would come as a setback to CM DK Shivakumar who took over from Siddaramaiah in June this year.

Maharashtra

MVA/INDIA Bloc: Nagpur Graduates (Congress), Pune Graduates (NCPSP), Chhatrapati Sambhaji Nagar Graduates (NCPSP)

Mahyuti/NDA: Pune Teachers, Amravati Teachers

The results are an important win for the MVA, especially the NCPSP ahead of speculation regarding a merger with the NCP. The Congress' win in Nagpur also has immense symbolic value as it is the bastion of CM Devendra Fadnavis and the headquarters of the RSS. In fact, Congress supporters on social media got a few laughs as Fadnavis was forced to delete his tweet taunting the Congress for getting zero seats.

The Big Picture

MLC elections have a very limited electorate, so they cannot be seen as reflection of where parties stand. At most, the results indicate some anti-incumbency against the respective state governments UP, Bihar, Karnataka and Maharashtra.

More than on ground sentiment, MLC elections are a test of organisational capacity of parties and coherence within alliances. By that yardstick, state level Opposition parties like SP in UP, BJP in Karnataka and Opposition alliance in Maharashtra delivered strong performances.