Ludhiana West Bypoll: AAP Win Won't Surprise but Losing Would be Disaster for it

Ludhiana West bypoll may impact AAP's national survival, Punjab Congress's leadership question & BJP''s state plans.

(Ludhiana West bypoll has become crucial for AAP, Congress, BJP and SAD)

(The Quint)

"If AAP loses, ongoing development work will come to a halt.": Arvind Kejriwal, AAP convenor.

"This is a battle between Punjabis and outsiders." - Bharat Bhushan Ashu, Congress candidate.

The by-election to the Ludhiana West Assembly constituency is boiling down to these two statements and, in some ways, these two personalities.

The seat is witnessing a keenly fought by-election, with the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP), Congress and BJP all believing that they have a good chance of winning the seat. They are not wrong - the voters of Ludhiana West Assembly segment have given a lead to each of these parties in the past three elections.

In the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, BJP's Ravneet Bittu was leading from the seat. Two years before this, the seat was won by AAP in the 2022 Assembly elections. Then in 2019, Bittu was leading from the segment as a Congress candidate.

The by-election has become all the more important because of what is at stake for each of these three parties. The election could impact AAP's national prospects, the leadership question in the Punjab Congress, the BJP's efforts to gain a foothold on its own in the state, and the internal tussle within the Akali space.

AAP: Will Bypoll Lead to Kejriwal Entering Rajya Sabha?

AAP, which is ruling in Punjab, has fielded Rajya Sabha MP Sanjeev Arora as its candidate in the seat. The speculation is that if Arora wins, AAP national convenor Arvind Kejriwal will enter the Rajya Sabha to fill the vacancy. Arora is a prominent industrialist in Ludhiana with business interests in garments and real estate.

AAP is leaving no stone unturned, deploying considerable resources and manpower in the campaign. Having lost Delhi in February this year, AAP is desperate to retain its hold in Punjab and also preserve its national profile.

The election also comes at a time when Kejriwal and AAP's national leadership have begun exercising greater control over party affairs in Punjab. A few of Kejriwal's picks have been appointed in key positions in the Punjab government. The election, therefore, is both a matter of prestige for Kejriwal.

AAP has fielded Rajya Sabha MP Sanjeev Arora from Ludhiana West.

Sanjeev Arora Facebook page. 

Kejriwal's statement that "ongoing development work will come to a halt if AAP loses" needs to be seen in this context.

There is a precedent to this. This sentiment was crucial in AAP's victory in another bypoll last year - to the Jalandhar West Assembly constituency. Like Ludhiana West, that too was an entirely urban seat.

AAP had suffered a setback in the bypoll to the Sangrur Lok Sabha seat in 2022 and winning Jalandhar West helped the government stabilise a bit. The party went on to win more bypolls after this, including Congress bastions such as Dera Baba Nanak and Gidderbaha.

AAP leaders say they are hopeful that voters in Ludhiana West will take a "practical call" based on pending development work rather than an "emotional" decision like the 2022 Sangrur bypoll which took place in the aftermath of Sidhu Moose Wala's assassination.

The Punjab government has also introduced a new land pooling policy to boost real estate, which has received praise from developers and flak from farmers. With Ludhiana being a major hub for developers, many of them are said to be batting for AAP in the bypoll.

How Will the Bypoll Impact Punjab Congress' Leadership Contest?

For the Congress, the by-election has become crucial in the context of the party's internal tussle. This is at two levels. First, at the level of politics in Ludhiana, there were reports of differences between Ludhiana MP Amarinder Singh Raja Warring who is also the state Congress chief on one hand and the party's strongest face in Ludhiana city, Bharat Bhushan Ashu on the other.

Warring's supporters had alleged during the Lok Sabha elections that Ashu's supporters didn't work hard enough in his campaign. Warring did underperform across Ludhiana city and trailed behind BJP's Ravneet Bittu. He won mainly due to support from rural segments, where farm unions backed the Congress.

Ashu's supporters, on the other hand, say that Warring didn't back him when he was "put in jail by the state government".

There's another element to this - the tussle in the Congress's top leadership. Reports suggest that there are some differences between state unit chief Warring and other senior leaders, especially former CM Charanjit Singh Channi. Channi and another senior leader Rana Gurjeet Singh have been the most active in campaigning for Ashu in the seat.

Charanjit Channi has been actively campaigning for Bharat Bhushan Ashu.

(Bharat Bhushan Ashu Facebook page)

Recently, Channi and Ashu brought on back former Congress leader Karamjit Singh Karwal who has switched several parties in the past few years. Warring was missing during their induction.

During the Lok Sabha elections, Warring had managed to secure the merger of the Lok Insaf Party led by Simarjit Bains into the Congress. Karwal has been a rival of Simarjit Bains in the Atam Nagar area.

Then Warring recently revoked the suspension of Phillaur MLA Vikramjit Singh Chaudhary, a known critic of Channi. Chaudhary, son of former Jalandhar MP Santokh Singh Chauhary, had opposed Channi's candidature from the Jalandhar Lok Sabha seat during the Lok Sabha elections.

Channi and Warring are two of the main contenders to be the party's CM face in the run-up to the 2027 Assembly elections. There was speculation recently that Warring could be replaced as the Punjab Congress chief.

However, Punjab Congress leaders now claim that Warring and Ashu have buried the hatchet and that the state unit chief is "working hard" to ensure the latter's victory.

BJP's Campaign Overshadowed by Vijay Rupani's Demise

The BJP in Punjab suffered a setback after the party's in-charge for the state, former Gujarat CM Vijay Rupani, died in the Ahmedabad plane tragedy.

According to reports, Rupani was supposed to go to London to visit his family much earlier but had to defer it due to the Ludhiana West bypoll.

Though the party declared its candidate comparatively later than AAP and Congress, its Ludhiana unit was optimistic of putting up a strong showing, especially given how well the BJP had done in the segment in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections.

The BJP had a sizable 13-percentage-point lead in the Ludhiana West segment in 2024. There was considerable consolidation of urban Hindu voters due to PM Modi's popularity and Ravneet Bittu's personal appeal in that demographic.

The BJP did well across all the Hindu-majority urban segments in Ludhiana but lost out due to a dismal performance in the rural segments where Sikhs are in a majority.

Even though Ravneet Bittu lost, the BJP made him a Minister of State in the Union Cabinet. The Ludhiana West poll is a prestige battle for Bittu and he is personally working hard in the campaign. For him, it is a question of vindicating the BJP's decision to give him prominence despite his being a recent entrant to the party.

However, the party's candidate Jiwan Lal Gupta isn't being seen as strong competitor to AAP's Arora and Congress' Ashu.

According to local inputs, Gupta's prospects have become totally dependent on the vote of BJP's party loyalists, Bittu's supporters and any voters who may back the BJP due to the recent conflict with Pakistan after the Pahalgam attack.

The last factor is important because a section of pro-Hindutva voters have voted for AAP in 2022 and the Congress in several elections before that. Ashu, in particular, is seen as a strong Hindu leader who takes pro-Hindu positions.

Former Gujarat CM Vijay Rupani passed away in a tragic air crash in Ahmedabad on 12 June, along with 240 other passengers and crew onboard.

(Photo: Altered by Kamran Akhter/The Quint)

Internal Tussle May Hamper SAD's Performance

When the Shiromani Akali Dal and BJP were still allies, the Ludhiana West seat had been in the BJP's quota. This was also due to the fact that it is a Hindu-dominated seat. As a result, the SAD doesn't have a very strong presence in the seat. However, SAD has always been force to reckon with in Ludhiana district and it is desperate to regain its prominence.

The party has fielded Advocate Parupkar Singh Ghumman who is known in the area. However, the SAD's prospects are being harmed greatly due to the tussle between president Sukhbir Singh Badal and its strongest leader in Ludhiana district, Dakha MLA Manpreet Singh Ayali.

Once a loyalist, Ayali has now become a vocal critic of Sukhbir Badal's leadership. He is also a key player in the committee appointed by the Akal Takht to oversee the party's membership drive. It will be difficult for the SAD to make any serious impact in the election without Ayali.

What Will Shape the Results?

Ludhiana West, like much of the city, suffers from a variety of infrastructure issues, traffic congestion and air and water pollution. Ludhiana is among the 20 most polluted cities in India.

However, for residents, the blame for these issues hasn't gone to any one party in particular - AAP is no doubt facing the most flak by virtue of being in power at the state as well as in the municipal corporation. However, the Congress too isn't escaping blame as it has been in power in both these in the past. The BJP-led Centre is also facing criticism for inadequate work on the Smart Cities project.

Upper Caste Hindu voters are in a majority in the seat and the sentiment among this demographic will decide the final results. This section in the seat had backed Congress in 2017 and 2019, AAP in 2022 and BJP in 2024.

Punjab has a track record of giving an advantage to the incumbent government in by-elections. The 2022 Sangrur bypoll and some of the bypolls held towards the end of the previous Akali-BJP government were exceptions in this respect. As we discussed earlier, AAP also expects that people will vote to get pending work done in the next 20 months that the government has left. Congress and BJP have both accused AAP of misusing the state machinery to win this election.

Therefore, Ludhiana West is AAP's election to lose. A win will be important for AAP if it does indeed lead to Kejriwal taking over Arora's seat in Parliament. However, it would be no indicator of whether AAP can Punjab again in 2027. A loss, on the other hand, would mean curtains for AAP. An incumbent in Punjab losing an entirely urban seat with over 18 months still to go for the next elections, would be a sign of deep anti-incumbency.